Its been a while since I have posted my picks. I am normally 100% NBA/NFL and those are the forums you have probably seen my in... but I couldn't stand the wait for the football season. I have been studying MLB every day since the NBA season ended and I finally have it to the point where I am winning regularly.
I am not posting these in an attempt to try to look like hot shit for making the correct calls.... but to get some feedback on them to help me strengthen my capping process.
On to the picks! Let me know what you think.
Chi Sox ML -122: This is mostly a fade on Davies. Not only have the Royals lost each of his last 8 starts but he is 0-2 with an ERA of 9.00 since returning from his rotator cuff inflammation.
The Sox are sending Buehrle to the mound. Against the Royals he has rocked an over all ERA of 3.6 (21-11) during his career. Also, the Sox have won each of his last 4 starts as well as 10 of his last 12.
The only part of this pick that has me worried is that the Royals can definitely be dangerous at the plate at times. However techinically this year they are only hitting .011 better than the Sox.
Besides the slightly lower batting average, the Sox should win with they huge advantage on the mound as well as a much better bull pen.
Nationals ML -110: Houston is 15-35 at home. They have been downright awful this season against right handed pitches. Their season record vs. righties is currently 17-49.
Houston is sending Lyles to the mound. They have lost each of his last 7 starts. The Nats are sending Marquis and they have won 12 of his last 17.
The Nationals are coming off probably their toughest loss of the season. They had both a 6-2 and an 8-7 lead durring the game but ended up going down 9-8 to Atlanta. I see them riding that great offensive energy to close it out the right way tonight against the worst team in baseball.
-Washington is 5-0 in the last 5 games as road favorites. -Washington is 8-3 in their last 11 vs. National League Central. -Houston is 1-10 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series.
Diamondbacks ML -125: This was one of the easier picks for today. The Brewers are horrific on the road. They have the worst road record by far of any first place team at 18-31. Some tend to think that because of their last 2 wins that there is hope for them on the road... but I try to look at the larger picture and those wins are still heavily outweighed by all of the losses.
They Brewers are sending right hand veteran Randy wolf the the mound. Wolf is 6-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 19 starts this season for Milwaukee. Wolf is also 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three starts. One of those starts was 2 weeks ago and he got destroyed by Arizona. He gave up 7 earned and 14 base hits in 6 innings! That performance was just entirely too horrible to ignore. As far as his entire career against Arizona goes, he has a 4.77 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.
The D-Backs are sending Josh Collmenter to the mound who pitched a superb game against the Brewers during his only start against them just a few weeks ago. He pitched six shutout innings while allowing only four base runners. He is also 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in four home starts.
I really see the home team taking the win tonight.
Phillies ML -220 I know this is a lot of juice but I just don't see the cubs having a chance in hell of winning this game with Halladay on the mound. I don't even think I need to write more than that on this game lol... the two teams are just completely opposite from each other... I will be betting 107 to win 49**
Yankees ML -141 The Rays couldnt hit themselves out of a paper bag last night. I was on Boston and actually ended up just changing the channel from being bored lol. Losses like that take a lot out of a team and considering they probably didn't get out of the park until 2:30 am, they should be pretty tired/demoralized. Now they have to go against a great team like the Yankees....
I think both pitchers are about even to each other. The Yankees bats are what should secure their win tonight though. ---
Alright everyone, please let me know what you guys think of these. Any/All feed back is greatly appreciated. GL to all of you today!
Its been a while since I have posted my picks. I am normally 100% NBA/NFL and those are the forums you have probably seen my in... but I couldn't stand the wait for the football season. I have been studying MLB every day since the NBA season ended and I finally have it to the point where I am winning regularly.
I am not posting these in an attempt to try to look like hot shit for making the correct calls.... but to get some feedback on them to help me strengthen my capping process.
On to the picks! Let me know what you think.
Chi Sox ML -122: This is mostly a fade on Davies. Not only have the Royals lost each of his last 8 starts but he is 0-2 with an ERA of 9.00 since returning from his rotator cuff inflammation.
The Sox are sending Buehrle to the mound. Against the Royals he has rocked an over all ERA of 3.6 (21-11) during his career. Also, the Sox have won each of his last 4 starts as well as 10 of his last 12.
The only part of this pick that has me worried is that the Royals can definitely be dangerous at the plate at times. However techinically this year they are only hitting .011 better than the Sox.
Besides the slightly lower batting average, the Sox should win with they huge advantage on the mound as well as a much better bull pen.
Nationals ML -110: Houston is 15-35 at home. They have been downright awful this season against right handed pitches. Their season record vs. righties is currently 17-49.
Houston is sending Lyles to the mound. They have lost each of his last 7 starts. The Nats are sending Marquis and they have won 12 of his last 17.
The Nationals are coming off probably their toughest loss of the season. They had both a 6-2 and an 8-7 lead durring the game but ended up going down 9-8 to Atlanta. I see them riding that great offensive energy to close it out the right way tonight against the worst team in baseball.
-Washington is 5-0 in the last 5 games as road favorites. -Washington is 8-3 in their last 11 vs. National League Central. -Houston is 1-10 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series.
Diamondbacks ML -125: This was one of the easier picks for today. The Brewers are horrific on the road. They have the worst road record by far of any first place team at 18-31. Some tend to think that because of their last 2 wins that there is hope for them on the road... but I try to look at the larger picture and those wins are still heavily outweighed by all of the losses.
They Brewers are sending right hand veteran Randy wolf the the mound. Wolf is 6-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 19 starts this season for Milwaukee. Wolf is also 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three starts. One of those starts was 2 weeks ago and he got destroyed by Arizona. He gave up 7 earned and 14 base hits in 6 innings! That performance was just entirely too horrible to ignore. As far as his entire career against Arizona goes, he has a 4.77 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.
The D-Backs are sending Josh Collmenter to the mound who pitched a superb game against the Brewers during his only start against them just a few weeks ago. He pitched six shutout innings while allowing only four base runners. He is also 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in four home starts.
I really see the home team taking the win tonight.
Phillies ML -220 I know this is a lot of juice but I just don't see the cubs having a chance in hell of winning this game with Halladay on the mound. I don't even think I need to write more than that on this game lol... the two teams are just completely opposite from each other... I will be betting 107 to win 49**
Yankees ML -141 The Rays couldnt hit themselves out of a paper bag last night. I was on Boston and actually ended up just changing the channel from being bored lol. Losses like that take a lot out of a team and considering they probably didn't get out of the park until 2:30 am, they should be pretty tired/demoralized. Now they have to go against a great team like the Yankees....
I think both pitchers are about even to each other. The Yankees bats are what should secure their win tonight though. ---
Alright everyone, please let me know what you guys think of these. Any/All feed back is greatly appreciated. GL to all of you today!
a) I think the WS/KC and The Wash/Houst games are possibly traps, Why the low lines, Overs are the better way. Also there is a probability of T-Storms, so any long delays could offset Halladay's performance.
a) I think the WS/KC and The Wash/Houst games are possibly traps, Why the low lines, Overs are the better way. Also there is a probability of T-Storms, so any long delays could offset Halladay's performance.
Hey thanks DJM! Im excited to be an active member of the covers community again. You guys have all really helped me improve my capping skills and been great to talk to.
Make sure to stop by and say whats up from time to time! Take care man
Hey thanks DJM! Im excited to be an active member of the covers community again. You guys have all really helped me improve my capping skills and been great to talk to.
Make sure to stop by and say whats up from time to time! Take care man
Its been a while since I have posted my picks. I am normally 100% NBA/NFL and those are the forums you have probably seen my in... but I couldn't stand the wait for the football season. I have been studying MLB every day since the NBA season ended and I finally have it to the point where I am winning regularly.
I am not posting these in an attempt to try to look like hot shit for making the correct calls.... but to get some feedback on them to help me strengthen my capping process.
On to the picks! Let me know what you think.
Chi Sox ML -122: This is mostly a fade on Davies. Not only have the Royals lost each of his last 8 starts but he is 0-2 with an ERA of 9.00 since returning from his rotator cuff inflammation.
The Sox are sending Buehrle to the mound. Against the Royals he has rocked an over all ERA of 3.6 (21-11) during his career. Also, the Sox have won each of his last 4 starts as well as 10 of his last 12.
The only part of this pick that has me worried is that the Royals can definitely be dangerous at the plate at times. However techinically this year they are only hitting .011 better than the Sox.
Besides the slightly lower batting average, the Sox should win with they huge advantage on the mound as well as a much better bull pen.
LOVE this play and this analysis. Check out how KC has performed against lefties as well, as this team tends to struggle against them.
Nationals ML -110: Houston is 15-35 at home. They have been downright awful this season against right handed pitches. Their season record vs. righties is currently 17-49.
Houston is sending Lyles to the mound. They have lost each of his last 7 starts. The Nats are sending Marquis and they have won 12 of his last 17.
The Nationals are coming off probably their toughest loss of the season. They had both a 6-2 and an 8-7 lead durring the game but ended up going down 9-8 to Atlanta. I see them riding that great offensive energy to close it out the right way tonight against the worst team in baseball.
-Washington is 5-0 in the last 5 games as road favorites. -Washington is 8-3 in their last 11 vs. National League Central. -Houston is 1-10 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series.
This is a solid play as I had Nats as one of my leans. Nats used up a lot of their relievers yesterday, but Marquis should be able to give them 6/7 strong innings here. You're definitely backing a better SP and better BP in this one.
Diamondbacks ML -125: This was one of the easier picks for today. The Brewers are horrific on the road. They have the worst road record by far of any first place team at 18-31. Some tend to think that because of their last 2 wins that there is hope for them on the road... but I try to look at the larger picture and those wins are still heavily outweighed by all of the losses.
They Brewers are sending right hand veteran Randy wolf the the mound. Wolf is 6-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 19 starts this season for Milwaukee. Wolf is also 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three starts. One of those starts was 2 weeks ago and he got destroyed by Arizona. He gave up 7 earned and 14 base hits in 6 innings! That performance was just entirely too horrible to ignore. As far as his entire career against Arizona goes, he has a 4.77 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.
The D-Backs are sending Josh Collmenter to the mound who pitched a superb game against the Brewers during his only start against them just a few weeks ago. He pitched six shutout innings while allowing only four base runners. He is also 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in four home starts.
I really see the home team taking the win tonight.
Be careful here. One of the biggest advantages Collmenter has right now is that he's starting against lineups that have NEVER seen him before. He has the 'unfamiliarity' factor working for him. Now that the Brewers have seen him once, they should be a little more comfortable the 2nd time around. Collmenter is a fairly average pitcher, who doesn't have 'great' stuff so it's a negative that the Brew-Crew have seen him once already such a short time ago. Wolf is 'garbage' so you have that working in your favor. Both BP and hitting favors Milwaukee though.
Phillies ML -220 I know this is a lot of juice but I just don't see the cubs having a chance in hell of winning this game with Halladay on the mound. I don't even think I need to write more than that on this game lol... the two teams are just completely opposite from each other... I will be betting 107 to win 49**
Laying -220+ is always tough, especially on the road. I read somewhere that Halladay struggles in his first start after an All-Star game. I'm sure that's pretty insignificant since the sample-size is so small though. GL!
Yankees ML -141 The Rays couldnt hit themselves out of a paper bag last night. I was on Boston and actually ended up just changing the channel from being bored lol. Losses like that take a lot out of a team and considering they probably didn't get out of the park until 2:30 am, they should be pretty tired/demoralized. Now they have to go against a great team like the Yankees....
I think both pitchers are about even to each other. The Yankees bats are what should secure their win tonight though. ---
Burnett has really struggled against the Rays lately and this Cobb kid actually has really good stuff. Yankees have never seen him before and he'll have the 'unfamiliarity' angle in his favor. I actually like the UNDER in this game as I expect a rested Burnett to pitch much better than he has in his last start prior to the ASB, also against the Rays.
Good luck!
Alright everyone, please let me know what you guys think of these. Any/All feed back is greatly appreciated. GL to all of you today!
Its been a while since I have posted my picks. I am normally 100% NBA/NFL and those are the forums you have probably seen my in... but I couldn't stand the wait for the football season. I have been studying MLB every day since the NBA season ended and I finally have it to the point where I am winning regularly.
I am not posting these in an attempt to try to look like hot shit for making the correct calls.... but to get some feedback on them to help me strengthen my capping process.
On to the picks! Let me know what you think.
Chi Sox ML -122: This is mostly a fade on Davies. Not only have the Royals lost each of his last 8 starts but he is 0-2 with an ERA of 9.00 since returning from his rotator cuff inflammation.
The Sox are sending Buehrle to the mound. Against the Royals he has rocked an over all ERA of 3.6 (21-11) during his career. Also, the Sox have won each of his last 4 starts as well as 10 of his last 12.
The only part of this pick that has me worried is that the Royals can definitely be dangerous at the plate at times. However techinically this year they are only hitting .011 better than the Sox.
Besides the slightly lower batting average, the Sox should win with they huge advantage on the mound as well as a much better bull pen.
LOVE this play and this analysis. Check out how KC has performed against lefties as well, as this team tends to struggle against them.
Nationals ML -110: Houston is 15-35 at home. They have been downright awful this season against right handed pitches. Their season record vs. righties is currently 17-49.
Houston is sending Lyles to the mound. They have lost each of his last 7 starts. The Nats are sending Marquis and they have won 12 of his last 17.
The Nationals are coming off probably their toughest loss of the season. They had both a 6-2 and an 8-7 lead durring the game but ended up going down 9-8 to Atlanta. I see them riding that great offensive energy to close it out the right way tonight against the worst team in baseball.
-Washington is 5-0 in the last 5 games as road favorites. -Washington is 8-3 in their last 11 vs. National League Central. -Houston is 1-10 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series.
This is a solid play as I had Nats as one of my leans. Nats used up a lot of their relievers yesterday, but Marquis should be able to give them 6/7 strong innings here. You're definitely backing a better SP and better BP in this one.
Diamondbacks ML -125: This was one of the easier picks for today. The Brewers are horrific on the road. They have the worst road record by far of any first place team at 18-31. Some tend to think that because of their last 2 wins that there is hope for them on the road... but I try to look at the larger picture and those wins are still heavily outweighed by all of the losses.
They Brewers are sending right hand veteran Randy wolf the the mound. Wolf is 6-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 19 starts this season for Milwaukee. Wolf is also 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three starts. One of those starts was 2 weeks ago and he got destroyed by Arizona. He gave up 7 earned and 14 base hits in 6 innings! That performance was just entirely too horrible to ignore. As far as his entire career against Arizona goes, he has a 4.77 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.
The D-Backs are sending Josh Collmenter to the mound who pitched a superb game against the Brewers during his only start against them just a few weeks ago. He pitched six shutout innings while allowing only four base runners. He is also 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in four home starts.
I really see the home team taking the win tonight.
Be careful here. One of the biggest advantages Collmenter has right now is that he's starting against lineups that have NEVER seen him before. He has the 'unfamiliarity' factor working for him. Now that the Brewers have seen him once, they should be a little more comfortable the 2nd time around. Collmenter is a fairly average pitcher, who doesn't have 'great' stuff so it's a negative that the Brew-Crew have seen him once already such a short time ago. Wolf is 'garbage' so you have that working in your favor. Both BP and hitting favors Milwaukee though.
Phillies ML -220 I know this is a lot of juice but I just don't see the cubs having a chance in hell of winning this game with Halladay on the mound. I don't even think I need to write more than that on this game lol... the two teams are just completely opposite from each other... I will be betting 107 to win 49**
Laying -220+ is always tough, especially on the road. I read somewhere that Halladay struggles in his first start after an All-Star game. I'm sure that's pretty insignificant since the sample-size is so small though. GL!
Yankees ML -141 The Rays couldnt hit themselves out of a paper bag last night. I was on Boston and actually ended up just changing the channel from being bored lol. Losses like that take a lot out of a team and considering they probably didn't get out of the park until 2:30 am, they should be pretty tired/demoralized. Now they have to go against a great team like the Yankees....
I think both pitchers are about even to each other. The Yankees bats are what should secure their win tonight though. ---
Burnett has really struggled against the Rays lately and this Cobb kid actually has really good stuff. Yankees have never seen him before and he'll have the 'unfamiliarity' angle in his favor. I actually like the UNDER in this game as I expect a rested Burnett to pitch much better than he has in his last start prior to the ASB, also against the Rays.
Good luck!
Alright everyone, please let me know what you guys think of these. Any/All feed back is greatly appreciated. GL to all of you today!
a) I think the WS/KC and The Wash/Houst games are possibly traps, Why the low lines, Overs are the better way. Also there is a probability of T-Storms, so any long delays could offset Halladay's performance.
I think the line for the Sox game is right where it should be. Yes, I think they have the advantage with the pitching but the KC offense definitely has the talent to contend with Chicago. Pitching has always been KC's downfall but sometimes, with good enough batting, you don't need great pitching lol.
I could definitely understand your worry on the Nats game. I also think the line should be higher. Either way, I tend to not look too deep into "traps" and just cap out the game and go with the result.
GL man and thanks a bunch for your input, I really appreciate it!
I think I will start posting my write-ups as leans to leave room for discussion before locking in my plays... What do you guys think? Is that a good idea? Or just trust myself and not let myself get swayed into changing my plays?
a) I think the WS/KC and The Wash/Houst games are possibly traps, Why the low lines, Overs are the better way. Also there is a probability of T-Storms, so any long delays could offset Halladay's performance.
I think the line for the Sox game is right where it should be. Yes, I think they have the advantage with the pitching but the KC offense definitely has the talent to contend with Chicago. Pitching has always been KC's downfall but sometimes, with good enough batting, you don't need great pitching lol.
I could definitely understand your worry on the Nats game. I also think the line should be higher. Either way, I tend to not look too deep into "traps" and just cap out the game and go with the result.
GL man and thanks a bunch for your input, I really appreciate it!
I think I will start posting my write-ups as leans to leave room for discussion before locking in my plays... What do you guys think? Is that a good idea? Or just trust myself and not let myself get swayed into changing my plays?
The Sox are a team I'm taking in spite of my misgivings about the line. Like the Yanks too, for the same reasons you do ( a loooong game yesterday for the Rays, and their Pen was up late too)
The Sox are a team I'm taking in spite of my misgivings about the line. Like the Yanks too, for the same reasons you do ( a loooong game yesterday for the Rays, and their Pen was up late too)
Thanks man! What you just did was EXACTLY what I was looking for. Those are all points that I hadn't thought of but are very important and need to be put into my capping process.
So would you say that the familiarity factor plays a large role in a pitchers success? Do you only look at it with new pitchers? Would you say a pitchers that has seen a team 10 times will have more success than one that has seen the team 30 times? *sorry if this sounds stupid, I'm just trying to think of how I will implement this into my capping process.
Also, Do you read into things like that Halladay stat you gave me?
One more question...I always see trends/stats that are REALLY specific and random like.. "Mets fit a system that has cashed 15 of 19 times and plays against road
dogs like the Marlins that are off a road favored win and scored 5 or
more runs with 5+ men left on base if the total was 10 or higher in that
game and the opponent is off a home loss and scored 5 or more runs with
5 or more men left on base"
Do you find these kind of stats to be important?
Thanks again for your input man, You have no idea how much it helps.
Thanks man! What you just did was EXACTLY what I was looking for. Those are all points that I hadn't thought of but are very important and need to be put into my capping process.
So would you say that the familiarity factor plays a large role in a pitchers success? Do you only look at it with new pitchers? Would you say a pitchers that has seen a team 10 times will have more success than one that has seen the team 30 times? *sorry if this sounds stupid, I'm just trying to think of how I will implement this into my capping process.
Also, Do you read into things like that Halladay stat you gave me?
One more question...I always see trends/stats that are REALLY specific and random like.. "Mets fit a system that has cashed 15 of 19 times and plays against road
dogs like the Marlins that are off a road favored win and scored 5 or
more runs with 5+ men left on base if the total was 10 or higher in that
game and the opponent is off a home loss and scored 5 or more runs with
5 or more men left on base"
Do you find these kind of stats to be important?
Thanks again for your input man, You have no idea how much it helps.
Thanks man! What you just did was EXACTLY what I was looking for. Those are all points that I hadn't thought of but are very important and need to be put into my capping process.
So would you say that the familiarity factor plays a large role in a pitchers success? Do you only look at it with new pitchers? Would you say a pitchers that has seen a team 10 times will have more success than one that has seen the team 30 times? *sorry if this sounds stupid, I'm just trying to think of how I will implement this into my capping process.
Typically the 'unfamiliarity' factor can be applied to a pitcher making his first starts against a particular lineup. It should only be a 'factor' though when a pitcher is truly a top-prospect and has had success in the minor leagues. I wouldn't consider it a factor for a minor league pitcher with a 4.0 ERA. Basically, talent is always the main thing to look for...the 'unfamiliarity' angle is just a tiny factor but it could be relevant. My point with Collmenter was that he 'just' pitched to Milwaukee for the first time on the 6th of July. Maybe part of the reason he was so successful was because it was the first time they saw him. Now, seeing him the 2nd time so soon, could be a different story (See Lyles pitching against Texas Rangers 2 starts in a row). After that, the 'tape' is out on each pitcher and the difference between seeing a team 10 and 30 times like you mentioned is insignificant.
Also, Do you read into things like that Halladay stat you gave me?
No, not really...those are ambiguous numbers/trends. But I do look at it when I have to lay -220 on the road! hehe Basically, the situation has to be PERFECT to lay those kinds of odds on a road team, and even stupid trends like the ones I mentioned, help me 'pass' on a game without even looking at it further.
One more question...I always see trends/stats that are REALLY specific and random like.. "Mets fit a system that has cashed 15 of 19 times and plays against road
dogs like the Marlins that are off a road favored win and scored 5 or
more runs with 5+ men left on base if the total was 10 or higher in that
game and the opponent is off a home loss and scored 5 or more runs with
5 or more men left on base" Do you find these kind of stats to be important?
Absolutely NOT! You can create a counter-trend that hits for a higher % on the opponent of your example, with different factors/inputs. Think about it, this trends above says that it cashed 15 out of 19 times. Do you really think it will go 30-8 or 45-12 going forward? OF COURSE NOT. The companies that release these trends, do so because it helps them maintain subscriptions to their services. But it's all just random with small sample-size. Long-term, all of these trends go to 50/50 and people lose $$. (Also, you have no way of telling when to jump on a trend like this and when to get off. Paying attention to these kinds of trends is a total waste of time)
Thanks again for your input man, You have no idea how much it helps.
Thanks man! What you just did was EXACTLY what I was looking for. Those are all points that I hadn't thought of but are very important and need to be put into my capping process.
So would you say that the familiarity factor plays a large role in a pitchers success? Do you only look at it with new pitchers? Would you say a pitchers that has seen a team 10 times will have more success than one that has seen the team 30 times? *sorry if this sounds stupid, I'm just trying to think of how I will implement this into my capping process.
Typically the 'unfamiliarity' factor can be applied to a pitcher making his first starts against a particular lineup. It should only be a 'factor' though when a pitcher is truly a top-prospect and has had success in the minor leagues. I wouldn't consider it a factor for a minor league pitcher with a 4.0 ERA. Basically, talent is always the main thing to look for...the 'unfamiliarity' angle is just a tiny factor but it could be relevant. My point with Collmenter was that he 'just' pitched to Milwaukee for the first time on the 6th of July. Maybe part of the reason he was so successful was because it was the first time they saw him. Now, seeing him the 2nd time so soon, could be a different story (See Lyles pitching against Texas Rangers 2 starts in a row). After that, the 'tape' is out on each pitcher and the difference between seeing a team 10 and 30 times like you mentioned is insignificant.
Also, Do you read into things like that Halladay stat you gave me?
No, not really...those are ambiguous numbers/trends. But I do look at it when I have to lay -220 on the road! hehe Basically, the situation has to be PERFECT to lay those kinds of odds on a road team, and even stupid trends like the ones I mentioned, help me 'pass' on a game without even looking at it further.
One more question...I always see trends/stats that are REALLY specific and random like.. "Mets fit a system that has cashed 15 of 19 times and plays against road
dogs like the Marlins that are off a road favored win and scored 5 or
more runs with 5+ men left on base if the total was 10 or higher in that
game and the opponent is off a home loss and scored 5 or more runs with
5 or more men left on base" Do you find these kind of stats to be important?
Absolutely NOT! You can create a counter-trend that hits for a higher % on the opponent of your example, with different factors/inputs. Think about it, this trends above says that it cashed 15 out of 19 times. Do you really think it will go 30-8 or 45-12 going forward? OF COURSE NOT. The companies that release these trends, do so because it helps them maintain subscriptions to their services. But it's all just random with small sample-size. Long-term, all of these trends go to 50/50 and people lose $$. (Also, you have no way of telling when to jump on a trend like this and when to get off. Paying attention to these kinds of trends is a total waste of time)
Thanks again for your input man, You have no idea how much it helps.
thanks man. That helped a lot. Im always thinking of questions that may help my capping process. would you mind if i sent you a message from time to time with them? or is it better to just post them in your thread?
wow.... this pitching is god aweful for the yankees... im sure it wont ge better with colon too lol. wish i had spoken with you before locking in that yankees bet lol. im pretty sure this live rays bet will hit though lol
thanks man. That helped a lot. Im always thinking of questions that may help my capping process. would you mind if i sent you a message from time to time with them? or is it better to just post them in your thread?
wow.... this pitching is god aweful for the yankees... im sure it wont ge better with colon too lol. wish i had spoken with you before locking in that yankees bet lol. im pretty sure this live rays bet will hit though lol
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