It seems every bettor has a favorite bet that he or she just stay away from, even when they know better. A bet that would never ordinarily be placed, or maybe is a toss-up, is placed simply because it conforms to the bettor's value placed on the situational aspect of the game and the line, or maybe some superstition. For some it's hangover games, or look ahead spots, or coaches like Bill SNyder or Les Miles that have some magical voodoo powers to get the game to go their way.
For me, it's Thursday night underdogs and overs. For whatever reason, Thursday night games have a higher propensity for getting weird, and weird means a lot of points and underdogs barking to the moon. For purposes of this discussion, we are going to focus only on Thursday night home underdogs.
Here are a couple of articles that give data to show that, at least in this case, perception meets reality:
https://www.maizenbrew.com/football/2015/8/15/9157839/thursday-night-home-underdogs-by-the-numbers
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2226692-thursday-football-why-does-the-underdog-have-such-great-success
The first article shows that games with spreads larger than 7 greatly favor the underdog (7-1 ATS in 2015).
As a personal anecdote, I bet 3 Thursday night home dogs with spreads larger than 7 last year:
Minnesota +14.5 against TCU
Final Score: TCU 23, Minn 17 (Win)
Tulane +9 vs Duke
Final Score: Duke 37, Tulane 7 (Loss)
Kansas State +17.5 vs Baylor
Final Score: Baylor 31, Kansas State 24 (Win)
I bet two home underdogs with spreads less than 7:
Kentucky +2 vs Auburn
Final Score: Auburn 30, Kentucky 27 (Loss)
Pitt +3 vs North Carolina
Final Score: UNC 26, Pitt 19 (Loss)
Now, this is obviously a very small sample size and it's for anecdotal purposes only.
In general, I never advocate blind betting based on trends or spots or feelings. Successful bettors, in my opinion, look at every game and every spread individually and objectively. But, just for fun, maybe it's worth blind betting a 1/2U on every Thursday night home underdog who is getting 7 points or better, just to see what happens. Could be worth it just for the entertainment value.
As always, thoughts and opinions are welcome.