SMU brings back almost all its offensive production and North Texas brings back very little. 93.82% vs 31.07% by Phil Steele metric. Smu
had and okay offense last year and horrible defense, North Texas was in the bottom 10 nationally in both. North Texas was a -182.5 ypg , Smu was -119.4 facing a much tougher schedule. My call Smu 37-17.
SMU brings back almost all its offensive production and North Texas brings back very little. 93.82% vs 31.07% by Phil Steele metric. Smu
had and okay offense last year and horrible defense, North Texas was in the bottom 10 nationally in both. North Texas was a -182.5 ypg , Smu was -119.4 facing a much tougher schedule. My call Smu 37-17.
I agree with you. SMU's D can be painful to watch at times, but N Texas D will be just as bad. SMU has one of the brightest offensive minds in the country. N Texas has a Bama Transfer at QB, and coaches with no HC experience. I think the poor overall quality of both teams will scare people, but I concur there is value here for Morris and SMU in his 2nd year. I predict a 49 to 31 MOV for SMU here...
I agree with you. SMU's D can be painful to watch at times, but N Texas D will be just as bad. SMU has one of the brightest offensive minds in the country. N Texas has a Bama Transfer at QB, and coaches with no HC experience. I think the poor overall quality of both teams will scare people, but I concur there is value here for Morris and SMU in his 2nd year. I predict a 49 to 31 MOV for SMU here...
SMU looks good here.....lot of returning experience on offense with one of the top QBs in the conference in Davis...SMU could score at will...no way UNT will keep up...44 - 20 ponies
SMU looks good here.....lot of returning experience on offense with one of the top QBs in the conference in Davis...SMU could score at will...no way UNT will keep up...44 - 20 ponies
67 sounds like a reasonable total. I think North Texas could have some success moving the ball between the 20s with the running game. Will be interesting to see time between snaps. Smu was a very run heavy team last year. Not as excited about taking the over, but not ready to take an under. At 63 I would take over and 70 I would take under. In between a no play.
67 sounds like a reasonable total. I think North Texas could have some success moving the ball between the 20s with the running game. Will be interesting to see time between snaps. Smu was a very run heavy team last year. Not as excited about taking the over, but not ready to take an under. At 63 I would take over and 70 I would take under. In between a no play.
67 sounds like a reasonable total. I think North Texas could have some success moving the ball between the 20s with the running game. Will be interesting to see time between snaps. Smu was a very run heavy team last year. Not as excited about taking the over, but not ready to take an under. At 63 I would take over and 70 I would take under. In between a no play.
SMU gave 718 yards up against James Madison last year the game and North Texas give up 66 points to Portland State, this game will be a track meet. Each team could run 100 plays.
67 sounds like a reasonable total. I think North Texas could have some success moving the ball between the 20s with the running game. Will be interesting to see time between snaps. Smu was a very run heavy team last year. Not as excited about taking the over, but not ready to take an under. At 63 I would take over and 70 I would take under. In between a no play.
SMU gave 718 yards up against James Madison last year the game and North Texas give up 66 points to Portland State, this game will be a track meet. Each team could run 100 plays.
Shua Im just not sure each team will stay committed to the track meet approach, SMU was a run heavy team last year, North Texas a run heavy team. North Texas has no big passing game ability, and Smu does not have great big play receiving. Just think people are looking at the average scores of the games last year and 73.5 for Smu games and 55.5 for North Texas games and get a bit excited on how offensive this game will be. Cortland Sutton is the only big play threat on offense for either team. The rest of the offense she be very plodding. Last year Smu averaged 72 plays and North Texas 70.
Shua Im just not sure each team will stay committed to the track meet approach, SMU was a run heavy team last year, North Texas a run heavy team. North Texas has no big passing game ability, and Smu does not have great big play receiving. Just think people are looking at the average scores of the games last year and 73.5 for Smu games and 55.5 for North Texas games and get a bit excited on how offensive this game will be. Cortland Sutton is the only big play threat on offense for either team. The rest of the offense she be very plodding. Last year Smu averaged 72 plays and North Texas 70.
Shua Im just not sure each team will stay committed to the track meet approach, SMU was a run heavy team last year, North Texas a run heavy team. North Texas has no big passing game ability, and Smu does not have great big play receiving. Just think people are looking at the average scores of the games last year and 73.5 for Smu games and 55.5 for North Texas games and get a bit excited on how offensive this game will be. Cortland Sutton is the only big play threat on offense for either team. The rest of the offense she be very plodding. Last year Smu averaged 72 plays and North Texas 70.
North Texas was outmatched in every facet last year and they knew they had to limit possessions in order to try to stay competitive. Graham Harrall takes over the play calling for north Texas and they are installing a very fast-paced tempo, very high octane offense in theory. Early on it may take some time in the defense will suffer because they will be in 14, 15, 16 possession games rather than 10 to 12 possession games. It will have an effect on every game they play this year, and until the books adjust their overs will be absolute money.
You can't simply just take an average of last year's numbers, because these two teams are different from last year's teams and it just simply doesn't matter. SMU defenses Wolfle and they will continue to be. I'll go as far as to say I won't be surprised if one of these teams puts a 50 spot on the board.
Shua Im just not sure each team will stay committed to the track meet approach, SMU was a run heavy team last year, North Texas a run heavy team. North Texas has no big passing game ability, and Smu does not have great big play receiving. Just think people are looking at the average scores of the games last year and 73.5 for Smu games and 55.5 for North Texas games and get a bit excited on how offensive this game will be. Cortland Sutton is the only big play threat on offense for either team. The rest of the offense she be very plodding. Last year Smu averaged 72 plays and North Texas 70.
North Texas was outmatched in every facet last year and they knew they had to limit possessions in order to try to stay competitive. Graham Harrall takes over the play calling for north Texas and they are installing a very fast-paced tempo, very high octane offense in theory. Early on it may take some time in the defense will suffer because they will be in 14, 15, 16 possession games rather than 10 to 12 possession games. It will have an effect on every game they play this year, and until the books adjust their overs will be absolute money.
You can't simply just take an average of last year's numbers, because these two teams are different from last year's teams and it just simply doesn't matter. SMU defenses Wolfle and they will continue to be. I'll go as far as to say I won't be surprised if one of these teams puts a 50 spot on the board.
I will go so far as to say, unless it involves 3 overtimes North Texas is not putting 50 on the board. I would be pretty shocked to see 50 and at best I see Smu up to 44. Very surprised to see North Texas past 27. Just thinking your vastly overrating the concept of North Texas getting up to speed on the up tempo game (not to even mention the total lack of qb and wr talent at North Texas) All this back and forth has me so curious for this total to come out. I think usually last week of July 5 dimes and others put up totals? Anyone else remember last year when they came out?
I will go so far as to say, unless it involves 3 overtimes North Texas is not putting 50 on the board. I would be pretty shocked to see 50 and at best I see Smu up to 44. Very surprised to see North Texas past 27. Just thinking your vastly overrating the concept of North Texas getting up to speed on the up tempo game (not to even mention the total lack of qb and wr talent at North Texas) All this back and forth has me so curious for this total to come out. I think usually last week of July 5 dimes and others put up totals? Anyone else remember last year when they came out?
UNT is installing a Texas tech style air raid offense. They're D won't be able to handle 16+ possessions. They will be exposed here.
The game will go over. The total will be somewhere around 68.
I will be unloading on the over.
That will be the issue for N Texas (arguably the WORST team in CFB LY)....but (probably) not as bad as they looked.................?
Awesome you guys are breaking this one down in JULY.... *BUT....many of you seem to be REACHING for answers.....
WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT NORTH TEXAS WILL LOOK LIKE *they could keep it tight....in a 41-37 type way....or they could get slaughtered....as our pal Shua mentioned....if they can't move the ball....their D is gonna get WORN OUT....(gonna be hot as helll too).....WE KNOW SMU WILL MOVE IT...............THIS...is probably the ONLY thing we KNOW will happen...
BIG PICTURE? *NT- just trying to get his O & D installed / not get embarrassed in front of the home crowd....several WINNABLE games on deck... Bethune Cookman next....later Army....UTSA....UTEP...Rice ......
*SMU- DESPERATION already.....off 2-10....local recruits watching.....THEY CANNOT STRUGGLE WITH STINKIN' NT... *'winnable games?....Liberty at home week 3 (no pushover / Ponies off a very physically draining game at Baylor)....then at Tulane later....(but a bad match-up for SMU / decent maybe good running game might present issues)....at ECaro?....at Tulsa?...Memphis at home
Problem?.....12 is too many *as you guys might have noticed...you must pay a PREMIUM for betting the favorites (early especially)...of 3-5 points or more in cases...at this point....looks like SMU is about 10pts better $$ might they just be 14-15 pts better?.....if NT REALLY was that bad LY.....and they struggle early to grasp the new system....AND the SMU D is much better........sure
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
UNT is installing a Texas tech style air raid offense. They're D won't be able to handle 16+ possessions. They will be exposed here.
The game will go over. The total will be somewhere around 68.
I will be unloading on the over.
That will be the issue for N Texas (arguably the WORST team in CFB LY)....but (probably) not as bad as they looked.................?
Awesome you guys are breaking this one down in JULY.... *BUT....many of you seem to be REACHING for answers.....
WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT NORTH TEXAS WILL LOOK LIKE *they could keep it tight....in a 41-37 type way....or they could get slaughtered....as our pal Shua mentioned....if they can't move the ball....their D is gonna get WORN OUT....(gonna be hot as helll too).....WE KNOW SMU WILL MOVE IT...............THIS...is probably the ONLY thing we KNOW will happen...
BIG PICTURE? *NT- just trying to get his O & D installed / not get embarrassed in front of the home crowd....several WINNABLE games on deck... Bethune Cookman next....later Army....UTSA....UTEP...Rice ......
*SMU- DESPERATION already.....off 2-10....local recruits watching.....THEY CANNOT STRUGGLE WITH STINKIN' NT... *'winnable games?....Liberty at home week 3 (no pushover / Ponies off a very physically draining game at Baylor)....then at Tulane later....(but a bad match-up for SMU / decent maybe good running game might present issues)....at ECaro?....at Tulsa?...Memphis at home
Problem?.....12 is too many *as you guys might have noticed...you must pay a PREMIUM for betting the favorites (early especially)...of 3-5 points or more in cases...at this point....looks like SMU is about 10pts better $$ might they just be 14-15 pts better?.....if NT REALLY was that bad LY.....and they struggle early to grasp the new system....AND the SMU D is much better........sure
Bookie the concept of some across the board 3-5 point premium on favorites early in the season makes no sense. I believe small premiums are placed on Tv games and overs and favorite teams. Never would there be an across the board 3-5 point premium in football with favorites.
Bookie the concept of some across the board 3-5 point premium on favorites early in the season makes no sense. I believe small premiums are placed on Tv games and overs and favorite teams. Never would there be an across the board 3-5 point premium in football with favorites.
That will be the issue for N Texas (arguably the WORST team in CFB LY)....but (probably) not as bad as they looked.................?
Awesome you guys are breaking this one down in JULY.... *BUT....many of you seem to be REACHING for answers.....
WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT NORTH TEXAS WILL LOOK LIKE *they could keep it tight....in a 41-37 type way....or they could get slaughtered....as our pal Shua mentioned....if they can't move the ball....their D is gonna get WORN OUT....(gonna be hot as helll too).....WE KNOW SMU WILL MOVE IT...............THIS...is probably the ONLY thing we KNOW will happen...
BIG PICTURE? *NT- just trying to get his O & D installed / not get embarrassed in front of the home crowd....several WINNABLE games on deck... Bethune Cookman next....later Army....UTSA....UTEP...Rice ......
*SMU- DESPERATION already.....off 2-10....local recruits watching.....THEY CANNOT STRUGGLE WITH STINKIN' NT... *'winnable games?....Liberty at home week 3 (no pushover / Ponies off a very physically draining game at Baylor)....then at Tulane later....(but a bad match-up for SMU / decent maybe good running game might present issues)....at ECaro?....at Tulsa?...Memphis at home
Problem?.....12 is too many *as you guys might have noticed...you must pay a PREMIUM for betting the favorites (early especially)...of 3-5 points or more in cases...at this point....looks like SMU is about 10pts better $$ might they just be 14-15 pts better?.....if NT REALLY was that bad LY.....and they struggle early to grasp the new system....AND the SMU D is much better........sure
BA, great to see you posting in a few recent threads. I responded to a guy in my thread a couple weeks ago with similar sentiments on this game..... Value wise, 12 does seem like a lot.
Completely agree that we have no idea today what NT will look like. August practice may shed some light, if we can just wait until then.
Saw your OSU post as well. I wanted to make an OSU play given the matchup/situational review, but again 27 is just two damn much for me given my PR #s.
Both SMU and OSU may cover, but it's a pretty steep price to pay at the moment.
That will be the issue for N Texas (arguably the WORST team in CFB LY)....but (probably) not as bad as they looked.................?
Awesome you guys are breaking this one down in JULY.... *BUT....many of you seem to be REACHING for answers.....
WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT NORTH TEXAS WILL LOOK LIKE *they could keep it tight....in a 41-37 type way....or they could get slaughtered....as our pal Shua mentioned....if they can't move the ball....their D is gonna get WORN OUT....(gonna be hot as helll too).....WE KNOW SMU WILL MOVE IT...............THIS...is probably the ONLY thing we KNOW will happen...
BIG PICTURE? *NT- just trying to get his O & D installed / not get embarrassed in front of the home crowd....several WINNABLE games on deck... Bethune Cookman next....later Army....UTSA....UTEP...Rice ......
*SMU- DESPERATION already.....off 2-10....local recruits watching.....THEY CANNOT STRUGGLE WITH STINKIN' NT... *'winnable games?....Liberty at home week 3 (no pushover / Ponies off a very physically draining game at Baylor)....then at Tulane later....(but a bad match-up for SMU / decent maybe good running game might present issues)....at ECaro?....at Tulsa?...Memphis at home
Problem?.....12 is too many *as you guys might have noticed...you must pay a PREMIUM for betting the favorites (early especially)...of 3-5 points or more in cases...at this point....looks like SMU is about 10pts better $$ might they just be 14-15 pts better?.....if NT REALLY was that bad LY.....and they struggle early to grasp the new system....AND the SMU D is much better........sure
BA, great to see you posting in a few recent threads. I responded to a guy in my thread a couple weeks ago with similar sentiments on this game..... Value wise, 12 does seem like a lot.
Completely agree that we have no idea today what NT will look like. August practice may shed some light, if we can just wait until then.
Saw your OSU post as well. I wanted to make an OSU play given the matchup/situational review, but again 27 is just two damn much for me given my PR #s.
Both SMU and OSU may cover, but it's a pretty steep price to pay at the moment.
Bookie the concept of some across the board 3-5 point premium on favorites early in the season makes no sense. I believe small premiums are placed on Tv games and overs and favorite teams. Never would there be an across the board 3-5 point premium in football with favorites.
IT MAKES PERFECT SENSE..... *almost always....these EARLY lines are way off
BetOnline is TERRIBLE....5Dimes is simply BAD *WHEN they set their lines themselves that is
Surprised that teams the public will back......have a few extra points tacked on are you......VEGAS Jason?...........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
Bookie the concept of some across the board 3-5 point premium on favorites early in the season makes no sense. I believe small premiums are placed on Tv games and overs and favorite teams. Never would there be an across the board 3-5 point premium in football with favorites.
IT MAKES PERFECT SENSE..... *almost always....these EARLY lines are way off
BetOnline is TERRIBLE....5Dimes is simply BAD *WHEN they set their lines themselves that is
Surprised that teams the public will back......have a few extra points tacked on are you......VEGAS Jason?...........
BA, great to see you posting in a few recent threads. I responded to a guy in my thread a couple weeks ago with similar sentiments on this game..... Value wise, 12 does seem like a lot.
Completely agree that we have no idea today what NT will look like. August practice may shed some light, if we can just wait until then.
Saw your OSU post as well. I wanted to make an OSU play given the matchup/situational review, but again 27 is just two damn much for me given my PR #s.
Both SMU and OSU may cover, but it's a pretty steep price to pay at the moment.
TD
There he is..................
* Looks like you're letting these boys get away with WAY too much nonsense TD.....I'll expect much harsher discipline in the future...........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
BA, great to see you posting in a few recent threads. I responded to a guy in my thread a couple weeks ago with similar sentiments on this game..... Value wise, 12 does seem like a lot.
Completely agree that we have no idea today what NT will look like. August practice may shed some light, if we can just wait until then.
Saw your OSU post as well. I wanted to make an OSU play given the matchup/situational review, but again 27 is just two damn much for me given my PR #s.
Both SMU and OSU may cover, but it's a pretty steep price to pay at the moment.
TD
There he is..................
* Looks like you're letting these boys get away with WAY too much nonsense TD.....I'll expect much harsher discipline in the future...........
* Looks like you're letting these boys get away with WAY too much nonsense TD.....I'll expect much harsher discipline in the future...........
BA, yeah trying to take the if you have nothing nice to say, then don't say anything approach in some of these threads. Ha, we'll see on the discipline. Results will speak for themselves for everyone on this message board. Easily amused if nothing else. Take care boss.
* Looks like you're letting these boys get away with WAY too much nonsense TD.....I'll expect much harsher discipline in the future...........
BA, yeah trying to take the if you have nothing nice to say, then don't say anything approach in some of these threads. Ha, we'll see on the discipline. Results will speak for themselves for everyone on this message board. Easily amused if nothing else. Take care boss.
Here....SMU -12 @ NT.... *what 'should' the line be?
My own numbers say SMU is (probably) about 10 pts better *conservative you bet........meaning it might be more...but I ain't gonna put my hard earned cash.....on SMU just yet.....no real need is there?
Checking around.....ain't gonna kill ya' *Massey says 35-28.....my man Bill Connelly says SMU will win by 7'-8 points.....LY's Gold Sheet finals (reflects Vegas point-spread) ....suggests 10-12.....I'm gonna say NT quit LY.....and is (was) a bit better than they appeared....Sagarin says about 10...predicting a score of 38-30 (new feature)........
SO.....here a 'correct' line might be between 7-10 *giving NT a home field of 2' or so....not that far...but a nasty drive from Dallas (nobody wants to get on I35)..... to sit in the heat (SMU has a tough time getting fans to come to Highland Park)
ANYBODY betting NT here? *check out the support for SMU here on Covers ....WHY offer a betting line of 8'.....if you can get guys to buy at 12?.............
SO....it is fair to say that if you bet SMU at 12....you're giving up about 3-4 pts of value........probably *and the definition of a 'square'....or simply recreational bettor....theoretically of course
Not to say you're not CORRECT.... *we're talking about a sound strategy that will make you money over the LONG haul.....and YES there are several games just like this....no way in helll I would take NT +12
BUT.....by all means when SMU wins 45-23 or so....feel free to come back / dance around....remind us how smart you were....
*'you' meaning whomever layed the 12....not VJ.....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
Here....SMU -12 @ NT.... *what 'should' the line be?
My own numbers say SMU is (probably) about 10 pts better *conservative you bet........meaning it might be more...but I ain't gonna put my hard earned cash.....on SMU just yet.....no real need is there?
Checking around.....ain't gonna kill ya' *Massey says 35-28.....my man Bill Connelly says SMU will win by 7'-8 points.....LY's Gold Sheet finals (reflects Vegas point-spread) ....suggests 10-12.....I'm gonna say NT quit LY.....and is (was) a bit better than they appeared....Sagarin says about 10...predicting a score of 38-30 (new feature)........
SO.....here a 'correct' line might be between 7-10 *giving NT a home field of 2' or so....not that far...but a nasty drive from Dallas (nobody wants to get on I35)..... to sit in the heat (SMU has a tough time getting fans to come to Highland Park)
ANYBODY betting NT here? *check out the support for SMU here on Covers ....WHY offer a betting line of 8'.....if you can get guys to buy at 12?.............
SO....it is fair to say that if you bet SMU at 12....you're giving up about 3-4 pts of value........probably *and the definition of a 'square'....or simply recreational bettor....theoretically of course
Not to say you're not CORRECT.... *we're talking about a sound strategy that will make you money over the LONG haul.....and YES there are several games just like this....no way in helll I would take NT +12
BUT.....by all means when SMU wins 45-23 or so....feel free to come back / dance around....remind us how smart you were....
*'you' meaning whomever layed the 12....not VJ.....
I have a long term angle that favors North Texas...61% over the past 20+ years.
I am on North Texas.
Keep in mind also, that North Texas, in regards to playing up an tempo, fast paced game that home dogs that score >27 points have covered 80% of their games over the past 26 years, as well as going over 80% of the time.
I have a long term angle that favors North Texas...61% over the past 20+ years.
I am on North Texas.
Keep in mind also, that North Texas, in regards to playing up an tempo, fast paced game that home dogs that score >27 points have covered 80% of their games over the past 26 years, as well as going over 80% of the time.
I am lost as to what players you think will be producing the yards in huge chunks for North Texas? You guys seem to be projecting at least a 38-28 game? You all I assume then think both teams are scoring over those totals? NT hit 28 and 30 as high water marks last year. Yes I know many of those defenses are better than SMU, but a few of them are not that much better. I really think SMU -10 ( a bit surprised the line came down to -10, think it was -9.5 for a blink) is a much better play than the Over. Calling for 38-17 Smu easy win.
I am lost as to what players you think will be producing the yards in huge chunks for North Texas? You guys seem to be projecting at least a 38-28 game? You all I assume then think both teams are scoring over those totals? NT hit 28 and 30 as high water marks last year. Yes I know many of those defenses are better than SMU, but a few of them are not that much better. I really think SMU -10 ( a bit surprised the line came down to -10, think it was -9.5 for a blink) is a much better play than the Over. Calling for 38-17 Smu easy win.
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