Hey guys,
This is a good one and I have a minute to write today. I got down on C. Michigan and actually bought it to +21.5.
This game will be closer then what the quick recent history study would suggest, for a number of reasons. Some situational and some are technical.
The first thing I look at is the CMU game against NIU (the last game CMU played this season.) This game has a misleading final score 38-17, a 21 point loss for CMU. Though a rather bush league TD by UNI late in the 4th Quarter (in a spot where they should have taken a knee with about 1;30 left in the 4th QTR)... ultimately made the game look more out of hand then it really was. As I am sure you are wondering....YES...the TD made all the difference for UNI backers at -14.5 winners, where as had UNI taken the knee the CMU backers would have been saved by the hook. Most importantly to take away from that little tidbit above, was that CMU hung around for 58;30 mins. So that ATS loss and 21 point margin on paper was not indicative of the actual game CMU played. In reality, the game was tied at the half.
Though there are some recent CMU better performance against lesser teams (wins vs Miami OH and OU) the losses before them make their team consistency look worse then it is. In the NCST game, CMU was just shocked and awed by NCST stadium and big program environment. They had a huge turnover (37 yd INT) early in the first quarter that went for a TD and they never really shook the nerves in that big venue/conference environment. They also gave up a punt return and a few big pass plays that big conference teams can do against mediocre MAC teams. So from a capping' perspective you can toss this NCST game out.
AS far as Toledo, CMU was only trailing by 7 going into the 4th quarter, CMU was fighting the whole way, but was just rundown in the 4th and wound up losing by 21.
Ball comes into tonight with what is shaping up to be potential conference showdown with Northern Illinois (with league title implications) next week. Making this game a spot where it is hard to lay a big number like 21. Experience tells us that there will be a look ahead factor for BALL since this is a game I am sure they already chalked up as a win. If they are winning big late, you can count on the fact that they will not risk hurting their starting players in a blowout game in the second half. We also know that CMU has shown fight in games until the end, even when the game is not going in their favor. Adding to the weird mix that makes tonight's situation a bit unique, CMU is actually coming off a bye week (BALL is not)....so we have a BALL ST team with a big game vs UNI next week, while CMU.
Not bashing BALL St here, but even their last 42-24 win vs AKRON has me mind boggled, as AKRON lost despite rushing for over 220 yards (5.1 per carry) and out gaining BALL in total yards. Al while holding ball to 4-12 on 3rd down tries...? I would say 9 times out of 10 a box score like this would have AKRON winning SU (instead of losing by 18...go figure.) But to the casual observer just looking at recent final scores, it would appear that BALLL had just run rough shot over AKRON dominating every stat category.
Oddly enough, the week before BALL had another head scratching blow out win vs. Western Michigan, where they won 38-17, but allowed W. Michigan to run for 164 yards on 24 carries (6.4 yds per carry.) In all respect to WMU, the final score was 38-17, but a fumble on their own 26 yard line was picked up by a BALL player who decided to run in the end zone with 26 seconds left in the 4th QTR to make the score a 21 point margin instead of 14.
Some other interesting notes are that CMU is 8-2-1 ATS their last 10 games off a bye week (3-0-1 ATS the last 4 games off the bye.)
Also consider, that in the last 20 meetings between CMU vs. BALL ST.... Ball State has won only one time more the 21 points.
Judging by some scores that I perceive as a little misleading (in regards to the teams capabilities & consistency) I will give CMU more credit then what the recent scores have shown...while I still ponder how BALL is able to win games handily, while allowing inferior opponents to rush for over 5 yards a carry on averegae?
Tonight, just FYI CMU rushes for an avg 210 per game (4.81 per carry) while Ball is allowing 206 rushing per game (4.97 per carry.)
With a bye week and a point spread that is juiced up a few points to protect the house from an al out blitz of Ball State money (My numbers have it at a hard 18)...then add in a predicted 0.5 inch of rain and 20-30 mph winds I will take the live dog plus the big points.
PS>>>I would not be surprised in the final minutes of this game to see Ball State ML backers on the edge of their seats hoping that Ball doesn't take a SU loss to a rested and capable Chippawa squad from CMU....
TAKE CMU +21 (if you can get, or buy a 21.5 go for it!!!)
GL!