We can see both sides of this one....power ratings leanage to NIU and they are really playing solid football right now won 4 str - QB play very good - 1 int vs Hare and almost 700 rush - just will not give this game away....On the flipside - ohio had a bye - beat buff gave up less than 150Y offense - bye - NIU at home - undeniably a great spot for a rested and motivated ohio team...Vick definitely an upgrade at qB - but still nowhere near Hare in terms of consistency imo and only went 7/18 vs buffalo.....Toss up to us....was hoping for total in low 50s but no dice.
summary
no leanage
Hi Mega!
Long time listener / first time caller!!
First off. THANK YOU for your write ups and selections you have done me right!!! Love the insight.
2nd. As the total in this game is now in the low 50's ....you lean under I assume?
We can see both sides of this one....power ratings leanage to NIU and they are really playing solid football right now won 4 str - QB play very good - 1 int vs Hare and almost 700 rush - just will not give this game away....On the flipside - ohio had a bye - beat buff gave up less than 150Y offense - bye - NIU at home - undeniably a great spot for a rested and motivated ohio team...Vick definitely an upgrade at qB - but still nowhere near Hare in terms of consistency imo and only went 7/18 vs buffalo.....Toss up to us....was hoping for total in low 50s but no dice.
summary
no leanage
Hi Mega!
Long time listener / first time caller!!
First off. THANK YOU for your write ups and selections you have done me right!!! Love the insight.
2nd. As the total in this game is now in the low 50's ....you lean under I assume?
Not going to touch this game - line and total look pretty tight - Mich St offense firing on all cylinders and D other than ohio st game been pretty good at home giving up 7 14 14 22 11 - mind you neb only decent off in there - Rutgers a good program just a bit behind top tiers right now - had no problem getting blown out at ohio st and neb - mind you covered at neb....Just became bowl elig - cant believe they think they can win this one not sure what happens if sparty gets up 14 or 17 early....Better games on the board at least for us.
Not going to touch this game - line and total look pretty tight - Mich St offense firing on all cylinders and D other than ohio st game been pretty good at home giving up 7 14 14 22 11 - mind you neb only decent off in there - Rutgers a good program just a bit behind top tiers right now - had no problem getting blown out at ohio st and neb - mind you covered at neb....Just became bowl elig - cant believe they think they can win this one not sure what happens if sparty gets up 14 or 17 early....Better games on the board at least for us.
yes - we have no money on the games tonight but think the under is way to go on ohio - D playing a lot better and NIU not as explosive as yrs past - GL !
yes - we have no money on the games tonight but think the under is way to go on ohio - D playing a lot better and NIU not as explosive as yrs past - GL !
Really tough game to play now - we wanted a 28 - opened at 30 and screamed higher from there - cannot chase it here although that is still probably a winning bet....TT for ohio st at 50 not much room for error but we know that can and will want to run it up....3-0 last 3 wks on indiana games but think we are gonna get off the train for now...Lost in another indiana loss were some SUCCULENT and HIDDEN TIDBITS....Indiana outgained Rutgers - yes they had a lot of big plays but offense finally getting used to new QB - Coleman an absolute stud at RB now nearing 1700 yds rushing - had OVER 300 vs Rutgers avg almost 10/carry...yes a lot of big ones - but they count - just saying....And they finally let the QB throw -31 att - around 170 yds even had a 100 yd receiver imagine that....line and total look about right gotta pass but if this bad boy gets over 35 would not chase it
summary
no leanage
No play?
I'm thinking of flying into Vegas tomorrow and laying $40k on Ohio St -34.5. I would not touch it at 35. Good spot for Ohio St at home and also can see them running score up as points for rankings. Indiana is banged up and won't see anything higher than 10-17pts, if that.
Really tough game to play now - we wanted a 28 - opened at 30 and screamed higher from there - cannot chase it here although that is still probably a winning bet....TT for ohio st at 50 not much room for error but we know that can and will want to run it up....3-0 last 3 wks on indiana games but think we are gonna get off the train for now...Lost in another indiana loss were some SUCCULENT and HIDDEN TIDBITS....Indiana outgained Rutgers - yes they had a lot of big plays but offense finally getting used to new QB - Coleman an absolute stud at RB now nearing 1700 yds rushing - had OVER 300 vs Rutgers avg almost 10/carry...yes a lot of big ones - but they count - just saying....And they finally let the QB throw -31 att - around 170 yds even had a 100 yd receiver imagine that....line and total look about right gotta pass but if this bad boy gets over 35 would not chase it
summary
no leanage
No play?
I'm thinking of flying into Vegas tomorrow and laying $40k on Ohio St -34.5. I would not touch it at 35. Good spot for Ohio St at home and also can see them running score up as points for rankings. Indiana is banged up and won't see anything higher than 10-17pts, if that.
SickDaddy cannot disagree....-34.5 should cash - GL !
next pick
Northwestern / Purdue over 49.5
If anyone wants to cap this on season averages - You will disagree and that is fine. We are taking a stance based on our current perception and a total under 50 which we think is much too low.
Purdue D vs NW Off
- Purdue D generally stinks; and cannot rush passer or create negative plays; NW scored 40 on ND 250-rush 250 pass before OT - they were clicking and we think that carries over into this game esp with bowl elig on the line ....L6G purdue has given up 24 27 45 39 35 34.....NW plays fast for a big10 team
Purdue O vs NW def
- NW D nothing special; Since A App took over vs Illinois in wk 6 - Purdue has been scoring other than tough games vs Neb and Wisc....38 31 38 in 3 of those games....They can MATRICULATE in the passing game and home run hitters at RB
Think both teams get 24+ - lean NW - but they cannot be trusted laying points imo think this is safer.
What worries us?
trends - series history under
weather - looks ok - bit cold - some rain
Both offenses improving - both Ds below avg. Should be a high tempo game no need to hold anything back just go for it.
SickDaddy cannot disagree....-34.5 should cash - GL !
next pick
Northwestern / Purdue over 49.5
If anyone wants to cap this on season averages - You will disagree and that is fine. We are taking a stance based on our current perception and a total under 50 which we think is much too low.
Purdue D vs NW Off
- Purdue D generally stinks; and cannot rush passer or create negative plays; NW scored 40 on ND 250-rush 250 pass before OT - they were clicking and we think that carries over into this game esp with bowl elig on the line ....L6G purdue has given up 24 27 45 39 35 34.....NW plays fast for a big10 team
Purdue O vs NW def
- NW D nothing special; Since A App took over vs Illinois in wk 6 - Purdue has been scoring other than tough games vs Neb and Wisc....38 31 38 in 3 of those games....They can MATRICULATE in the passing game and home run hitters at RB
Think both teams get 24+ - lean NW - but they cannot be trusted laying points imo think this is safer.
What worries us?
trends - series history under
weather - looks ok - bit cold - some rain
Both offenses improving - both Ds below avg. Should be a high tempo game no need to hold anything back just go for it.
Penn St so kooky right now - D playing lights out - Offense cannot sustain anything - not much of a run game and QB just not playing well - yes there are OL issues and not a lot of weapons - but we have now seen some or all of 5 of their games and just not seeing improvement at QB and lots of mistakes - having said all that - illinois put up a stinker last wk trucked by iowa on the ground and really dominated in the stat lines - technically still alive for a bowl spot with a win this wk then next at NW....overall see no imminent signs of improvement or weasel angles to take a shot with the dog - Game looks mostly unplayable - Under? maybe - but like we noted last wk in the temple game- no way it go over yet there was a risk it would when the number was so low - 44 a bit more buffer but with a D that bad on the Illinois side you never know.
summary
pass no leanage
Nebraska 10.5 Minn (56.5)
mega line 11
sagarin 11
Line and total looks about right - Interesting matchup if only because both teams coming off tough losses - Minn put their hearts into it and actually hung around pretty well - Neb as you know got steamrolled and where will their heads be at now? Easy for They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy to load up - but covering 10-11 against this Minny team never a sure thing - Matchup for Minn not great gave up 289 rushing to ohio st and 298 rushing to purdue wtf so can be had on the ground bad news.....On the flipside - Minn tougher than a night in jail on the OL and will be able to pound at Nebraska DL.....50/50 shot at this number Neb has had some trouble at home in spurts this yr and dominated most other times - Do not wanna fade Minn HC as DD dog.
Penn St so kooky right now - D playing lights out - Offense cannot sustain anything - not much of a run game and QB just not playing well - yes there are OL issues and not a lot of weapons - but we have now seen some or all of 5 of their games and just not seeing improvement at QB and lots of mistakes - having said all that - illinois put up a stinker last wk trucked by iowa on the ground and really dominated in the stat lines - technically still alive for a bowl spot with a win this wk then next at NW....overall see no imminent signs of improvement or weasel angles to take a shot with the dog - Game looks mostly unplayable - Under? maybe - but like we noted last wk in the temple game- no way it go over yet there was a risk it would when the number was so low - 44 a bit more buffer but with a D that bad on the Illinois side you never know.
summary
pass no leanage
Nebraska 10.5 Minn (56.5)
mega line 11
sagarin 11
Line and total looks about right - Interesting matchup if only because both teams coming off tough losses - Minn put their hearts into it and actually hung around pretty well - Neb as you know got steamrolled and where will their heads be at now? Easy for They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy to load up - but covering 10-11 against this Minny team never a sure thing - Matchup for Minn not great gave up 289 rushing to ohio st and 298 rushing to purdue wtf so can be had on the ground bad news.....On the flipside - Minn tougher than a night in jail on the OL and will be able to pound at Nebraska DL.....50/50 shot at this number Neb has had some trouble at home in spurts this yr and dominated most other times - Do not wanna fade Minn HC as DD dog.
Yet another one that looks about right - Tempted in some sick way to take the points with the dog - but iowa has trouble sometimes with teams that just line up and do what they do - pound the run game - Got smoked at Minny 291 yds rushing - Last yr home to Wisc - lost 28-9....And Wiscosin may be able to MATRICULATE over the top when Gordon isn't popping off 20 yd runs in his sleep...Just not crazy about the matchup for iowa - and cannot fade a red hot Wisc team - yes their brick wall D showed up again last wk and held Neb under 200Y....not saying they could stop oregon or baylor - but once again - they get a matchup they can handle so expect iowa to have trouble....10 pts just too many for us to lay at iowa. would have suggested at lean or small play for you sparkies out there at 6.5/7.
Yet another one that looks about right - Tempted in some sick way to take the points with the dog - but iowa has trouble sometimes with teams that just line up and do what they do - pound the run game - Got smoked at Minny 291 yds rushing - Last yr home to Wisc - lost 28-9....And Wiscosin may be able to MATRICULATE over the top when Gordon isn't popping off 20 yd runs in his sleep...Just not crazy about the matchup for iowa - and cannot fade a red hot Wisc team - yes their brick wall D showed up again last wk and held Neb under 200Y....not saying they could stop oregon or baylor - but once again - they get a matchup they can handle so expect iowa to have trouble....10 pts just too many for us to lay at iowa. would have suggested at lean or small play for you sparkies out there at 6.5/7.
Starting looking at the dog here for a play but just cannot do it; offense just not gonna work on the road near the bottom of the NCAA in rushing and no way they are gonna MATRICULATE the passing game when they cannot establish the run and with top WR Diggs out we think - offense last 3G 7 20 15 points - Michigan D - 3L4 G given up 13 10 9....Maryland top rusher not incl QB who is a mild run threat yds wise - 261...uh oh...now lean michigan for sure just missed the early line so will not chase for big dollaa to make me hollaa but can still recommend as a lean for degenerate action junkies.....Was also thinking over - but now see Maryland really not scoring much at all making total a bit tricky
Starting looking at the dog here for a play but just cannot do it; offense just not gonna work on the road near the bottom of the NCAA in rushing and no way they are gonna MATRICULATE the passing game when they cannot establish the run and with top WR Diggs out we think - offense last 3G 7 20 15 points - Michigan D - 3L4 G given up 13 10 9....Maryland top rusher not incl QB who is a mild run threat yds wise - 261...uh oh...now lean michigan for sure just missed the early line so will not chase for big dollaa to make me hollaa but can still recommend as a lean for degenerate action junkies.....Was also thinking over - but now see Maryland really not scoring much at all making total a bit tricky
I'm thinking of flying into Vegas tomorrow and laying $40k on Ohio St -34.5. I would not touch it at 35. Good spot for Ohio St at home and also can see them running score up as points for rankings. Indiana is banged up and won't see anything higher than 10-17pts, if that.
So, you'd fly to Vegas and bet $40,000 on a game at -34.5 but you wouldn't touch it at all at -35? That's quite the threshold for 1/2 point.
Has anybody around here seen "If I add an extra 0 or two to the size of my bets, people will respect me more" guy?
I'm thinking of flying into Vegas tomorrow and laying $40k on Ohio St -34.5. I would not touch it at 35. Good spot for Ohio St at home and also can see them running score up as points for rankings. Indiana is banged up and won't see anything higher than 10-17pts, if that.
So, you'd fly to Vegas and bet $40,000 on a game at -34.5 but you wouldn't touch it at all at -35? That's quite the threshold for 1/2 point.
Has anybody around here seen "If I add an extra 0 or two to the size of my bets, people will respect me more" guy?
Sorry guys was hoping to have a play here but these mass injuries all over the place just make games impossible to put serious coin on - i mean never bad to just have some action i guess - but just hard to see how this one will play out - both teams pretty evenly matched imo - BG seemingly every RB on injured list and did not roll kent like we thought they might at home....Toledo was going to be our pick but no idea who or what is going to suit up at QB....one out one doubtful one questionable - and unless you are Utah St and have 8 future hall of fame QBs on the roster just cannot recommend a wager on this one.
summary
no play
hey Mega do to the weather pretty bad snow tonite .u thinks the under it the pick? and take the point +6.5 ?
Sorry guys was hoping to have a play here but these mass injuries all over the place just make games impossible to put serious coin on - i mean never bad to just have some action i guess - but just hard to see how this one will play out - both teams pretty evenly matched imo - BG seemingly every RB on injured list and did not roll kent like we thought they might at home....Toledo was going to be our pick but no idea who or what is going to suit up at QB....one out one doubtful one questionable - and unless you are Utah St and have 8 future hall of fame QBs on the roster just cannot recommend a wager on this one.
summary
no play
hey Mega do to the weather pretty bad snow tonite .u thinks the under it the pick? and take the point +6.5 ?
mrdish - sorry no call on the toledo game now - weather and ? injuries at qb for toledo and RB for BG - gonna take a pass....No feel for side or total...Can't even give out a lean like ohio/NIU under just no clue on this one - GL
mrdish - sorry no call on the toledo game now - weather and ? injuries at qb for toledo and RB for BG - gonna take a pass....No feel for side or total...Can't even give out a lean like ohio/NIU under just no clue on this one - GL
Looking like a no-play - line and total look about right - Miss St in the ultimate sandwich off Bama loss and Ole Miss on deck...Vandy just having a tough season and unsure how much they have in the tank - hard to get a feel for how bad they are - i mean i know they are bad - but have strung together a couple decent quarters together more than once and it does not take much to cover 30+ if the other team is not fully motivated......Miss St should be able to score 40+ and Vandy might be able to MATRICULATE a bit in the passing game
Looking like a no-play - line and total look about right - Miss St in the ultimate sandwich off Bama loss and Ole Miss on deck...Vandy just having a tough season and unsure how much they have in the tank - hard to get a feel for how bad they are - i mean i know they are bad - but have strung together a couple decent quarters together more than once and it does not take much to cover 30+ if the other team is not fully motivated......Miss St should be able to score 40+ and Vandy might be able to MATRICULATE a bit in the passing game
Line opened at 22 when up for a bit - S Alabama QB is doubtful and with unknown talent behind him - playing at SC cannot be a good spot - and they are already bowl eligible - smells like a spanking is coming up even with SC off big Fla win and Clemson next.....Too many unknowns to play this one but no way would play the dog here smells like a lie down die and get out of town game to us.
Line opened at 22 when up for a bit - S Alabama QB is doubtful and with unknown talent behind him - playing at SC cannot be a good spot - and they are already bowl eligible - smells like a spanking is coming up even with SC off big Fla win and Clemson next.....Too many unknowns to play this one but no way would play the dog here smells like a lie down die and get out of town game to us.
Have to take a shot at this team total...Debated between the game total - which we still think is a good play - and this one; Decided that it was a better play to go with Mizz finding a way to get 23.....Plus that way we technically do not fade our Tennessee pals who are near the top of our MAN CRUSH list since Dobbs got the QB job.
Gonna keep this simple. Just a probability play - yes we know Mizz offense is not that great BUT they find a way to get points on the board on D - off turnovers - in the return game...etc....
Using a team total line of 22.5
2013
Missouri was 14-0 OVER
2014
Missouri is 7-3 OVER
# games scoring 20 or more. 9/10. 90%.
Tennessee ?
Have given up 30 points 5 times this yr; 3 of last 4. We think they are gonna score some as well and that should help the tempo.
Ultimately would play game total over if the team total was 24 but getting 23 and 24 as a win made our models go ALL NIGHT LIKE LUMBERJACK excited
Added bonus?
Tennessee stud MLB suspended. Other key D guys on injury list. Now this may or may not mean anything but it cannot HURT.
Have to take a shot at this team total...Debated between the game total - which we still think is a good play - and this one; Decided that it was a better play to go with Mizz finding a way to get 23.....Plus that way we technically do not fade our Tennessee pals who are near the top of our MAN CRUSH list since Dobbs got the QB job.
Gonna keep this simple. Just a probability play - yes we know Mizz offense is not that great BUT they find a way to get points on the board on D - off turnovers - in the return game...etc....
Using a team total line of 22.5
2013
Missouri was 14-0 OVER
2014
Missouri is 7-3 OVER
# games scoring 20 or more. 9/10. 90%.
Tennessee ?
Have given up 30 points 5 times this yr; 3 of last 4. We think they are gonna score some as well and that should help the tempo.
Ultimately would play game total over if the team total was 24 but getting 23 and 24 as a win made our models go ALL NIGHT LIKE LUMBERJACK excited
Added bonus?
Tennessee stud MLB suspended. Other key D guys on injury list. Now this may or may not mean anything but it cannot HURT.
Really excellent battle and very much looking forward to this one...Ole Miss back to back losses before the FCS win - then bye - get to finish with Ark game then Miss St....Win out and who knows where they land ? Their D is lights out fantastic....But the Arkansas D is pretty good too - obviously different area code than Ole Miss D - and this is a step up in class - but one cannot deny they are playing excellent football right now despite only winning 5 games this yr - need one more win to get bowl elig if you can believe that - and next wk vs Mizz another tough one....Think we get a max effort out of a team that can run and play D and gave up only 36 rushing yds to LSU and less than 125 total yds - 17 17 0 last 3 games on D - yes we know we know Ole Miss offense better than LSU - but they did hold Miss St to 17.....Ark has beat LSU at home...lost to Bama at home by 1....lost to Miss St on road by 7....That resume is pretty good and the key is while they have played some stinkers - last 2 were very nice vs miss st and lsu seem to be in top form
summary
strong lean to arkansas and the under - Need to evaluate over next day or so
Really excellent battle and very much looking forward to this one...Ole Miss back to back losses before the FCS win - then bye - get to finish with Ark game then Miss St....Win out and who knows where they land ? Their D is lights out fantastic....But the Arkansas D is pretty good too - obviously different area code than Ole Miss D - and this is a step up in class - but one cannot deny they are playing excellent football right now despite only winning 5 games this yr - need one more win to get bowl elig if you can believe that - and next wk vs Mizz another tough one....Think we get a max effort out of a team that can run and play D and gave up only 36 rushing yds to LSU and less than 125 total yds - 17 17 0 last 3 games on D - yes we know we know Ole Miss offense better than LSU - but they did hold Miss St to 17.....Ark has beat LSU at home...lost to Bama at home by 1....lost to Miss St on road by 7....That resume is pretty good and the key is while they have played some stinkers - last 2 were very nice vs miss st and lsu seem to be in top form
summary
strong lean to arkansas and the under - Need to evaluate over next day or so
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