Tempted to tail you on this, main reason being that the prime-time, friday night game featuring the preseason darling is a perfect storm for square bettors to get killed. It's exactly the kind of game I would be taking the fav on in my first year or 2 of betting.
But even though I now know the value is at the +30ish points, I also know that you can't cover even a spread like that if you can't score.
Bolin is definitely an upgrade and Kill should improve them, but that's because there is literally nowhere to go but up after last year. And it won't happen straight away, vs a team with a very good front. Having a slight upgrade is actually offset by having to learn a new system - the chemistry and improvement will take time.
They have a great playmaker in Janarion Grant, but he's coming off a broken ankle and that is a serious injury to come back from. He's been limited in practice to make sure he doesn't get hurt before this game. Without knowing if he is back to his old self it's hard to be confident in any big plays coming out of RU.
UW lost their awesome starting corners, but with RU's offense you don't need a pair of NFL CBs to slow down the passing attack. RU has their entire secondary back which is a plus.
The good news is that the Miami transfer Gus Edwards has been pencilled in to start at RB and he is the big punishing runner that Kill likes. So that could help the bleed the clock angle.
The bad news is UW has the best RB tandem in the country and one of the best offensive lines. While RU's defense was last in the big ten in tackles for loss. UW can basically just hand off and run it down their throats.
A few posters said Peterson 'won't call off the dogs' in this one. But I don't think he's going to be looking to run up the score here tbh. This is just a warm up game for them. Browning is coming off of shoulder surgery and if the game is in hand he might pull him out early. But RU will still need to score to backdoor.
It won't make any difference whether UW wins by 20-something or 30-something and Peterson knows that. If he's going to run it up on someone it will be someone like USC. Often when a lesser team agrees to a home and home the bigger school will try to not go bananas on them, especially in front of their home fans. Peterson is a pretty classy guy.
If it goes back over 31, I'll take the points. and I think it will near game time, as the public will want UW. If it doesn't I may just wait for Saturdays game.