...Last year, they didn’t really play anyone that fit the bill unless you take a look at a Depaul or LSU, and I can’t compare those styles or offenses to Tubby’s team in any way, also noting the different style that CMU has employed this year. The majority of scoring in this game should come from the perimeter, and when you get that as I’ve noted, the flow should be smooth throughout. Minnesota’s defense is good, but they take too many chances. When you take those chances on the outside against these CMU guards, they’ll find openings. As for concerns with this not going over, there is one. First, CMU is on the tail end of a three game roady, something that should see a decline on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Obviously, a dip in offense for CMU is clearly a concern in taking any over. I can agree with that 99% of the time, but this is going to be one of the few cases where I look past it. One, if I can get the right flow (which I feel I will get), this offense can shoot below average and still put up some points. Two, Tubby’s finally got a healthy roster with some key role players getting in the mix for bits of minutes over the course of the past few games. When you get that, you’re more adapt to get away from a game plan and see what kind of lineups you like to use if this one becomes a laugher early causing no letup. Three, the “extra’s” in this matchup outweigh any intangible. If I get a dud from CMU, then I’m getting even more opportunities for offensive put-backs from Minnesota (CMU cannot rebound this year), and I’m getting those extra chances from the foul line as I’ve noted before. Clearly, I’ve put a heavy emphasis on the guards in this one (CMU going up against what they face in a daily practice setting and Minny going up against what they face year in and year out in a B-10 setting), but the “extra’s” only add to the puzzle here in pointing this one to the over. A nice flow and rhythm is all I’m asking for, and I think I’ll get it with the youth both teams trot out.
Wisconsin at Wisky MKE
Both side and totals are probably spot on. Both team defenses and style of play are what sets each other apart generally in matchups, and both clash here, so there really won’t be anything out of the ordinary to see here. Should be a defensive battle, and not sure Wisconsin MKE’s offense is capable of scoring against a good defense, especially without McCallum & Kelm being able to stretch the defense out to the perimeter. With that said, it’s a pretty big home game for them, and the scary part of this MKE team is that they haven’t had their normal starting five for a full game this year (which has clearly disrupted offensive rhythm). Think the under is probably the right side, and didn’t really look into the MKE injuries as I’m not touching the game, but those two not suiting up hurts this offense against the style of play they’ll see tonight. Only scare on the under is familiarity with each other’s system.
UC Irvine at Wyoming
If you were to take a gander at post #37 from (this thread), you’d see my thoughts on Wyoming this year and what they’re able to do from a defensive standpoint as they have been amazing to say the least. I just don’t think this is the best spot to be backing them. First, they’re coming off a really big and rare road victory, so a letdown is possible (had lost 23 straight on the road prior to that victory). Second, Shyatt’s defense always works best when it can take you out of offensive sets, and as I mentioned, if their opponent can’t break them down off the dribble, they’re in for a rough night. This team has held good solid half court offenses in Northern Colorado, Portland State, and Colrado to 56, 54, and 51 points. There isn’t a single player on either of those teams who can iso at any point in the game. Tonight is a different story. If you have ever watched Russell Turner’s offensive system at UC Irvine, it’s about 99% predicated on getting out and running, and breaking down opponents in a one-on-one setting in the half court. Last year they had a bunch of veteran guards who could get a shot up at any point they wanted by beating someone on the dribble-drive. This year, they’re struggling, which is expected with a ton of roster turnover, but it’s still the same system. Wyoming will almost certainly try to slow the pace here as they have taken control of that in just about every ball game, but if they do that here, I think they’re opening up a big can of worms from a defensive standpoint. Do I think UC Irvine walks out of here with a win? Anything is possible, but I find this scenario highly unlikely. I do think the game is fairly closer than most probably think if you look just at the #’s and what each team has done thus far without looking at the systems that each comes in with. Wyoming’s offense is nothing special, and they have struggled mightily. This team has won games simply on its defense. Tonight, they’ll have to score to win, because I don’t think the defense wins this one for them.
Drexel at Niagara
On paper, this is typically a game where Drexel’s defense makes an already awful offense look even worse and controls the game with effort on the offensive and defensive glass. For reference, check out last year’s 84-39 victory over Niagara. Really though, I don’t want to trust this Drexel offense on the road. The only time they’ve even shown the ability to score this year was the opener against Rider, and Rider’s sort of gone on to give up 80+ a game (95 to Marist!!!). Then again, Drexel has had their way with MAAC teams the past two years scoring at least 70+ in all of those meetings. I like Drexel here, but it just seems that this Niagara team is a pest when it goes up against teams who struggle to score the past few years, and if Drexel doesn’t put them away early, they’ll have the confidence to stick with them in this game. The size advantage Drexel has here on Niagara’s guards should tell the difference. This is probably the right time to get Fouch back in the starting lineup, as he’s coming off a game where he scored 23 off the bench. Pretty nice spot for Drexel to put a winning streak together for the first time this year, but a bad spot coming off a win and hitting the road against a team they pasted by 45 last year. They’re better at every spot on the floor, just need to see the effort...