For those of you that have read my posts this season will note that this is only the 2nd under that I have been on this year. Unders are always risky propositions due to end game fouling scenarios and/or overtime. However, tonight presents a good opportunity to back one.
Play: South Dakota / Western Illinois Under 129
South Dakota has played three teams this year that average less than 65 possessions per game. Each of those games went under tonight’s total. Games versus Nebraska (pace #334) finished at 113, Wyoming (pace #319) totaled 123, and Morehead St. (#317) finished at 113. Tonight they play at Western Illinois who enters the game as the 8thslowest team in the country, only averaging 61.3 possessions per game. Additionally, Western Illinois is the most offensively inefficient of this group mentioned by far, only scoring 0.962 pts per possession (#249).
On the flip side, Western Illinois has only played three games this year that went over tonight’s total. However, each of those games involved an opponent with an above average adjusted offensive efficiency – Dayton, South Dakota St, and IUPUI all rank in the top 80 nationally and average 1.06 pts per possession or better. South Dakota, however, enters tonight averaging a below average 0.966 pts per possession, good for only #237 in the country. Also note that South Dakota should have their second scoring chances limited as they maintain the 7th worst offensive rebounding % in the country.
There is also added value in tonight’s total situationally speaking. First, since South Dakota is new to the Summit Conference, this will be their first visit to Western Hall. Second, WIU is coming off a game where they allowed more than 67 points in a game for only the second time this year by allowing the aforementioned IUPUI to score 75. Third, South Dakota has gone to overtime in 2 of their last 3 games inflating the totals of their recent results.
Could this game go over? Of course it could. As I mentioned to start, many things can go wrong at the end of a game that was dead under for the first 38 minutes of game action. However, I think there are more than enough indicators from the two teams meeting tonight that suggest it will be a struggle for the winning team to reach 66 points, which is the only way this play would be a loser.
For those of you that have read my posts this season will note that this is only the 2nd under that I have been on this year. Unders are always risky propositions due to end game fouling scenarios and/or overtime. However, tonight presents a good opportunity to back one.
Play: South Dakota / Western Illinois Under 129
South Dakota has played three teams this year that average less than 65 possessions per game. Each of those games went under tonight’s total. Games versus Nebraska (pace #334) finished at 113, Wyoming (pace #319) totaled 123, and Morehead St. (#317) finished at 113. Tonight they play at Western Illinois who enters the game as the 8thslowest team in the country, only averaging 61.3 possessions per game. Additionally, Western Illinois is the most offensively inefficient of this group mentioned by far, only scoring 0.962 pts per possession (#249).
On the flip side, Western Illinois has only played three games this year that went over tonight’s total. However, each of those games involved an opponent with an above average adjusted offensive efficiency – Dayton, South Dakota St, and IUPUI all rank in the top 80 nationally and average 1.06 pts per possession or better. South Dakota, however, enters tonight averaging a below average 0.966 pts per possession, good for only #237 in the country. Also note that South Dakota should have their second scoring chances limited as they maintain the 7th worst offensive rebounding % in the country.
There is also added value in tonight’s total situationally speaking. First, since South Dakota is new to the Summit Conference, this will be their first visit to Western Hall. Second, WIU is coming off a game where they allowed more than 67 points in a game for only the second time this year by allowing the aforementioned IUPUI to score 75. Third, South Dakota has gone to overtime in 2 of their last 3 games inflating the totals of their recent results.
Could this game go over? Of course it could. As I mentioned to start, many things can go wrong at the end of a game that was dead under for the first 38 minutes of game action. However, I think there are more than enough indicators from the two teams meeting tonight that suggest it will be a struggle for the winning team to reach 66 points, which is the only way this play would be a loser.
I don't want to sound like a nut hugger, where are you getting your information Would love to have access
Vast majority of the information that I use comes from KenPom. I also rely on reading the local papers from that day for the schools involved.
As for the W Mich / Wisc Milw total, I'd lean over. But the defensive efficiency that Milw brings to the table is keeping me from getting involved (#35 in country).
I don't want to sound like a nut hugger, where are you getting your information Would love to have access
Vast majority of the information that I use comes from KenPom. I also rely on reading the local papers from that day for the schools involved.
As for the W Mich / Wisc Milw total, I'd lean over. But the defensive efficiency that Milw brings to the table is keeping me from getting involved (#35 in country).
Riccio, I love your work and always look for your posts. Do you pick and choose your spots bc I notice you don't post every night. Thanks. Just trying to get a feel for when you will be posting
Riccio, I love your work and always look for your posts. Do you pick and choose your spots bc I notice you don't post every night. Thanks. Just trying to get a feel for when you will be posting
Riccio, I love your work and always look for your posts. Do you pick and choose your spots bc I notice you don't post every night. Thanks. Just trying to get a feel for when you will be posting
Definitely like to pick and choose my spots, especially the last couple of weeks due to holiday tournament schedules and exam breaks.
Now that conference play is starting, there will also be very good historical match-up data available to use as part of the analysis process. And as time permits, I will make posts, but can't commit to anything daily or even every few days.
Riccio, I love your work and always look for your posts. Do you pick and choose your spots bc I notice you don't post every night. Thanks. Just trying to get a feel for when you will be posting
Definitely like to pick and choose my spots, especially the last couple of weeks due to holiday tournament schedules and exam breaks.
Now that conference play is starting, there will also be very good historical match-up data available to use as part of the analysis process. And as time permits, I will make posts, but can't commit to anything daily or even every few days.
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