February is the truest time of the season for college basketball teams. Those non-conference wins don’t mean much in the heat of league play. Contenders are discovered and pretenders are unveiled as the schedule rolls toward the postseason.
We looked at the best and worst ATS play in February earlier this week, so let’s break down which teams have the best over and under records in the month of February over the past five seasons (2007-08 to 2011-12).
Records from just February games over the last five seasons.
Indiana State Sycamores (30-10 over/under, 23-17 SU)
Indiana State is all about February. The Sycamores are the best ATS teams in February over the last five seasons and hold claim to the best over bet as well. They split totals in their eight February games last year (4-4 over/under) but went 26-6 over/under the four previous campaigns. Indiana State is 1-2 over/under this month.
Hofstra Pride (29-10-1 over/under, 27-13 SU)
Hofstra, the top under bet in college basketball right now (1-12 over/under), has been on the other side of the fence in Februarys past. The Pride has gone 19-4-1 over/under in the second month of the year over the past three seasons but is off to a 1-2 over/under count this month.
Valparaiso Crusaders (28-14 over/under, 22-20 SU)
After staying under the total for most of the season, Valpo is beginning to trend toward the over just in time for February. The Crusaders are 7-1 over/under in their last eight games heading into Saturday. Valparaiso went 4-4 over/under last February but was 7-2 over/under in 2011 and 7-1 over/under in 2010.
Notables: Towson (27-12-1 over/under), Bowling Green (26-14 over/under), Southern Illinois (26-13 over/under), Wichita State (26-14 over/under)
Virginia Cavaliers (7-30 over/under, 11-26 SU)
The Cavs have been under gold in February, posting at least six under paydays in the past four Februarys. Head coach Tony Bennett went 4-18 over/under in his first three seasons at Virginia and has the Cavaliers ranked second in the nation in defense (51.5 points against per game). However, totals have dropped so low, Virginia has begun to show value with the over – going 4-1 over/under in its last five heading into Sunday.
Princeton Tigers (18-27 over/under, 27-18 SU)
Not a surprise here. The originators of the “Princeton offense” – a pass-heavy, motion offense that eats up the shot clock – naturally play under the total. The Tigers defied that logic last season, with a 6-2 over/under mark in February, but went 2-7 over/under in each of the three previous February schedules. This year, the Tigers are 3-3 over/under on the season and 2-1 over/under this month heading into the weekend.
South Florida Bulls (9-27 over/under, 12-24 SU)
The Big East, known for its slowed-down offenses and grueling defensive pressure, will take its toll on some of the weaker programs – like USF. The Bulls rarely see the light from the bottom of the conference and have been the most consistent under play when the going gets tough in the Big East. South Florida is 3-12 over/under the previous two Februarys and 1-1 over/under this month, heading into Saturday.
Notables: Pennsylvania (18-26-1 over/under), UConn (16-25 over/under), St. John’s (16-25-1 over/under), Columbia (15-25-1 over/under), Georgetown (12-25 over/under).