NFL mid-week line moves: Sharps like Under in Denver

Nov 14, 2013 |
Week 11’s odds are on the move with action forcing sportsbooks to adjust their numbers before the weekend. We talk to Michael Stewart of about the biggest mid-week line moves and where those odds could end up come Sunday:

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

Most wagering outlets opened with the Saints as fieldgoal faves at home for this clash of NFC giants. Bettors are backing the home team, who are coming off a spectacular performance on the national stage last Sunday night.

"Literally all the early money was on the Saints, forcing us to to to Saints -3 (-120) and eventually getting off that key number of 3 and going to 3.5 flat," says Stewart. "I doubt we'll go much higher than 3.5 and if anything, we might go -3.5 (-115) later this week, but again at this point we're fine with our 3.5 flat number.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Open: 51, Move: 49.5

Bettors have loved betting the Over in Broncos' games this season, but this week we have seen a change in direction. Early action was on the Under, but Stewart stated that since the public hasn't gotten involved yet, fully expects them to come in and take the Over like they have for each game this season.

"We opened the Chiefs-Broncos total 51, by far the lowest total we've offered on at Bronco game since Week 3," Stewart said. "But our opening total didn't last long as we saw sharp action bet us under that number, and we moved aggressively off that sharp bet and went straight to 50, eventually going to 49.5 and that's the number we've been dealing since Tuesday.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants - Open: -7, Move: -6.5

Even with the Packers starting a third-string QB, it hasn't been a deterrent to Packer backers. Money has come in on the Pack since that opening number forcing a move, and books are starting to see New York money trickle in.

"We opened the Giants -7 versus the Packers, and we thought the Giants would attract the money in this game," Stewart told Covers. "We were wrong. Most of the initial action was on the Packers +7, forcing us to go to Packers +7 (-115) / Giants -7 (-105). With more money coming in on the Packers at that number, we moved off the key number of 7 and went to Giants -6.5 flat. But even at that number we're seeing more and more action come in on the dog so we further adjusted off the 6.5 and made the Packers +6.5 (-115) / Giants -6.5 (-105)."

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