Federer's Wimbledon win has small impact on U.S. Open odds

Jul 9, 2012 |
Federer's Wimbledon win has small impact on U.S. Open odds
Federer moved from +450 to +400 after defeating Andy Murray.
Federer moved from +450 to +400 after defeating Andy Murray.
Roger Federer showed the tennis world that there’s plenty of tread left on his tires with his seventh Wimbledon title this weekend.

His 17th-career Grand Slam championship catapulted the Swiss legend back to the top of the ATP World Rankings but barely put a dent in his odds for the U.S. Open, which begins August 27 at Flushing Meadows in Queens, New York.

Federer moved from +450 to +400 after defeating Andy Murray at the All England Club Sunday, making him the third-overall favorite for the U.S. Open behind Rafael Nadal, who went from +225 to +250, and former No. 1 Novak Djokovic, who fell from +150 to +163 after losing to Federer in the Wimbledon semifinals. Murray is the fourth favorite at +450 after opening at +550, with Juan Martin De Potro as the next player listed at +1,000.

“Both the Federer and Murray moves are relative to the slight drift on Djokovic and Nadal,” Aron Wattleworth of bet365.com told Covers. “As has been the case for a few years now, the top four in the men’s outright (odds) are unchanged and it’s hard to see beyond one of the four winning it. Hence, the bulk of the percentage in the market is between the four.”

As for players outside of the overall favorites drawing early action, Canadian Milos Raonic, who was bet heavily heading into Wimbledon where he lost in the second round, is once again a live dog in the eyes of tennis bettors. His U.S. Open outright winner prices have dropped from +5,000 to their current standing of +3,300.

“The surface suits him better and he is one of the younger players being looked at to threaten the top four, but has yet to prove it on big stage,” Wattleworth says of Raonic.

On the women’s side, Wimbledon winner Serena Williams’ U.S. Open odds moved from +275 to +225 after proving her first-round exit at the French Open was a fluke.

Williams, who has been slowed by injuries this year, is ahead of Victoria Azarenka, who went from +350 to +300, and Maria Sharapova, who remains unchanged at +400 following Wimbledon. Petra Kvitova suffered the biggest move in odds, going from +400 to +550 to win the U.S. Open after bowing out in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon.

Wimbledon finalist and new World’s No. 2 Agnieszka Radwanska has drawn the attention of early underdog bettors, watching her U.S. Open outright price jump from +2,000 to +1,400 following the grass-court Grand Slam. The Polish starlet, who could have taken the No. 1 ranking if she had defeated Williams in the final, was priced at high as +3,300 to win the U.S. Open earlier this year.

“She has had a solid consistent year, but has come up short against other top players, mainly Azarenka, who owns the head-to-head against her, including six straight this year,” says Wattleworth.

Here’s a look at the odds for the Top 10 U.S. Open favorites for both the ATP and WTA (courtesy of bet365.com):


Novak Djokovic +163
Rafael Nadal +250
Rodger Federer +400
Andy Murray +450
Juan Martin De Potro +1,000
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +2,500
Robin Soderling +3,300
Tomas Berdych +3,300
Milos Raonic +3,300
John Isner +3,300


Serena Williams +225
Victoria Azarenka +300
Maria Sharapova +400
Petra Kvitova +550
Kim Clijsters +1,100
Samantha Stosur +1,200
Agnieszka Radwanska +1,400
Carolina Wozniacki +2,000
Na Li +2,200
Venus Williams +2,500

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