English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Nov 1, 2013 |
English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet
Suarez has six goals in four Premier League matches this season.
Suarez has six goals in four Premier League matches this season.
Saturday's Premier League fixture list is highlighted by Arsenal hosting Liverpool. The Gunners top the table with 22 points, but the Reds are nipping at their heels with 20.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 to see where the actions is on some of the hotter fixtures.

Newcastle v Chelsea (+500, +320, -163)

Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies must play with a chip on their shoulder after a gut-wrenching loss to rivals Sunderland in the Tyne-Wear Derby. Newcastle is a quality side that has been competitive in each match since the 4-0 defeat at Man City on opening day.

Key players out/doubtful: Fabricio Coloccini, Ryan Taylor, Jonás Gutiérrez

Why bet Chelsea: Incredible stretch of performances from the Blues. They defeated Arsenal 2-0 in Capital One Cup action midweek, defeated Man City 2-1 last weekend, and thumped a totally overmatched Schalke side in Champions League last week. This team is flying.

Key players out/doubtful: Marco van Ginkel

2012-13 fixture result: Newcastle 3, Chelsea 2

Key betting note:
The Blues have kept just three clean sheets in their last 12 EPL away games.

Where the action is:
"Action so far is loving the Blues, with the bulk of full-time result plays on them, with Newcastle and the Draw currently being well swerved. Chelsea boast a high scoring midfield, and with Torres finding some form in other competitions, the Magpies could be in for a long day."

Fulham v Manchester United (+550, +320, -175)

Why bet Fulham: The Cottagers found a bit of quality with back-to-back wins before losing 2-0 at Southampton last week. They must collect points here with a trip away to Liverpool looming. If not, they'll find themselves back around the bottom of the table.

Key players out/doubtful: Hugo Rodallega, Matthew Briggs

Why bet Manchester United:
Though the results aren't reminiscent of United sides of years past, the Red Devils have collected seven points in their last three matches and maybe rounding into form under David Moyes. Can we gush anymore over Adnan Januzaj? The 18-year-old is destined to become the next legend at Old Trafford.

Key players out/doubtful: Danny Welbeck, Darren Fletcher

2012-13 fixture result:
Fulham 0, Manchester United 1

Key betting note: Fulham has lost five-straight matches against United in the Premier League.

Hull v Sunderland (+115, +240, +280)

Why bet Hull: The Tigers are easily the cream of the newly-promoted crop in the Premier League. Despite back-to-back defeats, they sit 10th in the table and were unlucky in both of their recent losses. They held Spurs scoreless before an untimely handball in the area led to Spurs' victory.

Key players out/doubtful: Robbie Brady, Alex Bruce, James Chester, Allan McGregor, Danny Graham

Why bet Sunderland: There will not be a more confident side in the league. The Black Cats defeated Newcastle which, to many Sunderland supporters, is akin to winning the title. It has been a rough start, but Sunderland has good players and perhaps those players are responding to Gus Poyet more than they were under Paolo Di Canio. This could be a turning point in the north east.

Key players out/doubtful: Wes Brown

2012-13 fixture result:

Key betting note: Of teams in the top half of the table, Hull has the fewest goals scored with seven.

Manchester City v Norwich (-500, +650, +1700)

Why bet City: City's two game winning streak came to a halt due to an atrocious late Chelsea goal last weekend. They'll look to bounce back with the awful Canaries in town, and score goals by the boatload in doing so. They do lead the league in goals (21) after all.

Key players out/doubtful: Steven Jovetic

Why bet Norwich: What is Norwich? After a promising 2012-13 season, the Canaries have been dreadful to start the new campaign. They spent liberally on striker help, bringing in Ricky van Wolfswinkel and Gary Hooper but are at the bottom in goals with just six. They've taken just four points from a possible 18 and have looked awful in doing so. The Canaries did, however, win at City last season and are the only club to have beaten Southampton this season. There is still reason to believe in this side.

Key players out/doubtful: Alexander Tettey, Elliott Bennett, Robert Snodgrass

2012-13 fixture result: Manchester City 2, Norwich 3

Key betting note: City forward Sergio Agüero has netted four goals in three EPL starts versus the Canaries.

Stoke v Southampton (+230, +230, +140)

Why bet Stoke: The Potters were awfully close to defeating Man United at Old Trafford last weekend and can take a lot of positives from that game. The side has only allowed two goals in their four home matches this season, losing just once.

Key players out/doubtful:
Robert Huth

Why bet Southampton:
Because this is the toughest defense to crack in the league. Through nine matches, the Saints have allowed just three goals and sit fifth in the table in a dream start to their season.

Key players out/doubtful: Guly

2012-13 fixture result:
Stoke 3, Southampton 3

Key betting note: Southampton has five clean sheets in its previous six EPL matches.

Where the action is: "At no point in recent history would Southampton go to the Brittannia Stadium and be +140 faves, but given the form of the teams its hard to argue the prices. With the lack of goals from Stoke, as well as their own very decent home defensive record of only two goals conceded, and Southampton's ability to keep teams from scoring against them, the over/under 2.5 goals is priced at +140 for the over and -188 for the under, there are not going to be many games where the over 2.5 is available at +140."

West Brom v Crystal Palace
(-182, +320, +600)

Why bet West Brom: Because Crystal Palace is a terrible, terrible football team.

Key players out/doubtful: Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, George Thorne

Why bet Crystal Palace:
In the hopes that the old adage "even a broken clock is right twice a day" is indeed true. Maybe, just maybe, the Eagles get their stuff together and perform like a Premier League club under caretaker Keith Millen. Because they were abysmal under Ian Holloway.

Key players out/doubtful: Patrick McCarthy, Glenn Murray, Jack Hunt, Jonathan Williams

2012-13 fixture result:

Key betting note:
Palace has lost their last six Premier League matches.

West Ham v Aston Villa
(+125, +250, +240)

Why bet West Ham:
The Hammers will be happy after collecting a point in Wales following a 0-0 draw with Swansea. They are one of the better defensive units in the league and have allowed just eight goals thus far.

Key players out/doubtful: Alou Diarra, Ricardo Vaz Te, Matthew Taylor, Andy Carroll, James Collins

Why bet Aston Villa:
It has been a tough run for the Villains, losers of two straight and toiling in 14th after beating clubs like Arsenal and Manchester City this season. But you get that with young teams. Inconsistency. They have showed they are capable of beating anyone, but also losing to anyone as well.

Key players out/doubtful: Jores Okore, Charles N'Zogbia, Antonio Luna, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Joe Bennett

2012-13 fixture result: West Ham 1, Aston Villa 0

Key betting note:
West Ham has four wins, seven draws and just two defeats in the last 13 meetings with Villa at Upton Park.

Arsenal v Liverpool (+130, +250, +230)

Why bet Arsenal:
Gunners skeptics cite the fact that they've played just one top-eight team thus far in the season, but what else is the club supposed to do? They are winning when they need to win. Save for a tough match versus Dortmund in Champions League and a loss to Chelsea midweek in the Capital One Cup, they've lost just once all season - to Aston Villa in the opening fixture of the season. This is a side that deserves to be atop the table. For now.

Key players out/injured: Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski, Abou Diaby

Why bet Liverpool: Because this side is beyond potent with Luis Suárez and Daniel Sturridge leading the line. The goals they scored last weekend against a helpless West Brom side were all of the highest quality. Rodgers' experiment of starting three CB's in a 3-5-2 has fared well and there is no reason to stop. Clogging the midfield against Arsenal's playmakers is a good idea, especially with pacey CB's Kolo Touré and Mamadou Sakho able to cover any errors.

Key players out/doubtful:
Iago Aspas, José Enrique, Sebastián Coates

2012-13 fixture result:
Arsenal 2, Liverpool 2

Key betting note: Arsenal and Liverpool have drawn in seven of their previous 12 meetings.

Where the action is:
"This match sees over 2.5 goals at -154 with under 2.5 at +120. This price will probably not last, as one of the most popular plays on the match is over 2.5 goals, so those considering backing it should probably look to back it sooner than later. First Goalscorer market sees Suarez and Sturridge both getting backed as +500 faves."

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