Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Dec 6, 2013 |
Championship Saturday is one of the biggest days for college football betting, despite having limited action on the board. We talk to Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag about the betting patterns and line adjustments for some of Saturday’s massive matchups:

Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers – Open: -2.5 Move: +1.5

This line has moved as many four points at some books, with sharp money hitting Missouri hard in the SEC Championship Game.

Auburn, coming off an unbelievable win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, is primed for a letdown but this massive move may have money coming back on War Eagle before kickoff. According to Perry, Auburn has drawn most of the public money for this game.

“Fifty-seven percent of money on spread is backing Auburn and 60 percent of moneyline cash is on Auburn,” says Perry. “Ninety-five percent of the action on the total is backing the Over.”

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles – Open: -30, Move: -28.5, Move: -29.5

With some uncertainty around FSU QB Jameis Winston status, early money took this spread down as low as Duke +28.5. But since Winston was cleared of assault charges Thursday, money has shown up on the Seminoles and has brought the line back up to FSU -29.5.

“After just a few hours, we got a small sharp play on Duke, so moved to +29.5. Early Thursday, we moved line in Blue Devils favor to -28.5, bracing for a possible suspension to Jameis Winston,” Perry says. “However, when it was announced that he will not be charged with any crime, the line went back up to -29.5. Sixty-eight percent of the money on the spread is on Duke.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans – Open: +6, Move: +5

Early action wasn’t convinced by Ohio State’s undefeated record and trimmed this spread as much as a point at some markets. The Buckeyes have dominated the Spartans at the window in recent games, going 6-2-1 ATS in their last three meetings.

“Sixty percent of the money on spread is backing MSU and 73 percent of the moneyline cash is on the Spartans,” says Perry.

Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils – Open: -4, Move: +3

Action on the underdog has slid this spread to the key number of a field goal. Stanford defeated the Sun Devils, 42-28, at home in Week 4, covering as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, ASU has won seven in a row, posting a 5-2 ATS mark in the stretch.

“Yet another game that has shifted in favor of the underdog,” says Perry. The Sun Devils opened -4 and on Monday morning we got a wiseguy play on the Cardinal for a rather large amount, so moved right to -3. Seventy percent of the money on the spread is on Stanford and 80 percent of moneyline cash is also on Stanford."

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