New Year's Day bowl betting trends and stats

Dec 19, 2012 |
January 1 signifies a new year and with it a bevy of college football bowl games.

Let’s take a look at what’s trending for the upcoming New Year’s Day bowl card.

Stats as of 1990 unless specified.

Bowling for dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends for each of the five major bowl games on Jan. 1:

• Capital One Bowl: The favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last 12.  All seven dog wins have been straight up.

• Gator Bowl: The favorite has cashed in each of the last two years, snapping a four-year run by the dogs.

• Orange Bowl: The favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

• Outback Bowl: Of the eight ATS dog wins, six have been in straight-up fashion.

• Rose Bowl: Pac-10/12 teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games versus Big Ten opponents.

The good, the bad and the ugly

Good numbers:  SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win.

Bad numbers… Big Ten bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers… Big Ten bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus Pac-10/12 opponents.

Coach me up

• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.

• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SU/ATS loss.

• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.

• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.

• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.

• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.

New Year’s babies

Favorites on New Year’s Day bowl games have been out of this world dating back to 1990.

That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more points per game on the season. They zoom to 31-14 ATS in those situations.

Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to follow suit on Jan. 1.
New resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making - then breaking - new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.

The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.

Stat of New Year's Day

The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.

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