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NFL odds: Week 12 opening line report

Your sweat pants are washed and pressed. Sixty percent of your fridge is home to a 20-pound half-frozen turkey. And you just tossed a few extra bucks into your sportsbook bankroll. It could only mean one thing: Thanksgiving is almost here.

The NFL is serving up triple helpings of action on Turkey Day, starting with Houston at Detroit at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by Washington at Dallas at 4:15 p.m. ET, and finally New England at New York at 8:20 p.m. ET.  

“Traditionally, we’re high on favorites with the Thanksgiving games. Everyone is home and everyone is betting,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “This year, the games are a little more competitive but we’re still high on the favorites.”

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions
(+3, 49)


Korner was baffled by what he saw at some of the online shops, when early spreads had Houston favored by only three points. The Texans were nearly knocked off by the lowly Jaguars Sunday but Houston – at 9-1 SU – is still one of the best teams in the NFL.

“Detroit is just 4-6 and not the team everyone expected this season,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -6. “I don’t understand why this came out at three. Come Thursday, who do you think everyone is going to be playing?”

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)

The Cowboys, coming off a nail-biting overtime win against Cleveland, turn around to face a classic rival on Thanksgiving Day. The Sports Club sent out Dallas -4.5 while early lines offshore opened with America’s Team as a 3.5-point home fave.

“Washington is a live dog here,” says Korner. “That win was great for Dallas and the Cowboys do have their following, but I don’t think (the spread) will go either way. It should settle in around three.”

New England Patriots at New York Jets
(+5.5, 49)


The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of New England -7 for this AFC East battle, but the injury to star TE Rob Gronkowski (out 4-6 weeks with broken forearm) has dropped the spread as low as -5.

Korner says big money could be controlling this line, waiting to see how low it can go before buying back New England.

“Whoever is controlling this move definitely doesn’t want New England -7.5 come Thursday,” he says. “I think it went down because of Gronk (who Korner says is worth a point to the spread), and he’s a difference maker. But it’s a good excuse to take this line down. There won’t be any Jets money coming in Thursday.”

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-1, 49.5)


Online books opened New York as a slim home favorite in this rematch of the NFC Divisional showdown from last year. However, Korner disagrees with making the Giants the favorites and expects this line to easily move to Green Bay before Sunday.

“I was the only one of our guys who had Green Bay favored,” he says. “The Giants aren’t playing well, Eli hasn’t been sharp, and this is a revenge spot for the Packers. One bet can move this spread over to Green Bay.”

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Posted by bigbooze
1 year ago

if it look toooo good go the other way. det+3 is the play
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Posted by unchoop15
1 year ago

This guy is a moron. No one is laying 6 at Detroit on Thanksgiving.
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Posted by Spitdudes
1 year ago

furthermore, didnt the Jets play the Pats tight on 10/11? 29-26.. Pats should have lost that game, and now the game is in NY minus #87? -6? bad number....should be Pats -2.5
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Posted by choiOi
1 year ago

Lions, Dallas ML, and jets +6.. Too much value w/jets at home to pass up.
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Posted by salsaboy27
1 year ago

not sure if I like the jets in this spot. what offense is going to keep up with the Pats? Pats put up 59 on the rams and jets put up 27. i know gronk is out but herndo is coming back they have two more tight ends that catch and block. They have running backs that can catch and run well. Let's not even get into the qb comparison. Defense is about even in the trenches although i give edge to NE because they have more takeaways with sanchez being sanchez there will be ints in the air. the only thing that worries me is this is a division game and both teams get up for this game. But on a short week i still give NE the edge since they were just in a bye and i know they had 2 weeks to rest and are the well rested team. I just don't see how the jets can keep up with TB12 and company. I'll take NE all the to -6.5. Also, take into consideration that NE is nearly perfect after the bye. but GL with all your play.
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Posted by choiOi
1 year ago

No gronk = big issues for pats offense. He's the reason why pats offense been so efficiency.
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Posted by choiOi
1 year ago

Pats huge
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Posted by Spitdudes
1 year ago

My system is in play.......... Take a home dog (NYJ) who won the previous week on the road... Pats are semi fraudulent, and with Gronkowski out, they will be 2 dimensional...
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Top Response

Posted by salsaboy27
1 year ago

"not sure if I like the jets in this spot. what offense is going to keep up with the Pats? Pats put up 59 on the rams and jets put up 27. i know gronk is out but herndo is coming back they have two more tight ends that catch and block. They have runn..."