Best NBA Player Props Today: Bearish on Brown

Prop bet #1: Garland rises to occasion 

Darius Garland hasn't had the best NBA Playoffs for the Cleveland Cavaliers, as the expectation for him within the organization is much higher. With Garland going Under on his assists total in four straight games, we have seen this total drop from 6.5 to 5.5, and the 5.5 is now trading at plus money. At the adjusted line of Over 5.5 (+114), I'm hitting the button on the Over. 

Let's use the New York Knicks players as an example here. The Knicks' entire playoff run has been filled with close games, and Tom Thibodeau using the starters for 40+ minutes as a result. For the Knicks players, their props are now being priced as if they are going to play 40+ minutes on any given night. 

The Cavaliers players find themselves on the opposite end of this spectrum because four of their seven games against the Orlando Magic were blowouts and Game 1 against the Boston Celtics was also a 25-point blowout. This has caused players such as Garland to play minutes similar to what we saw from him in the regular season, and I think it's creating a scenario where we want the Over on his assists prop. 

In order to establish an edge on the Over 5.5 (+114), we really only need around 33 minutes from Garland. His lowest minute output in the playoffs is 30, and think about all the blowouts he has been a part of. Granted, the Cavaliers are a 14.5-point underdog, but if they can just keep this somewhat close heading into the fourth quarter, is it out of the question that we see elevated minutes for Garland? I don't think so at all, and we aren't banking on it to establish an edge but it would make our bet even better. 

When you look at this from more of a basketball perspective, the Celtics have multiple perimeter defenders capable of suffocating the offense that your role players can generate. The Cavaliers need Mitchell and Garland to create for other players, and Garland showed in Game 1 that he can use his dribble to create separation against the Celtics defense and generate shots for his teammates. 

Garland is projected to have six assists on Thursday against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 assists at -120, but it is available at bet365 at +110.

Darius Garland prop: Over 5.5 assists (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Fading Jaylen

In Game 1 against the Cavaliers, Jaylen Brown scored 32 points, leading the Celtics in scoring. It has caused his points prop to move towards the Over. For Game 2, Brown's points prop is now two points higher at 25.5, as it was trading at 23.5 for Game 1. This two-point adjustment on Brown's props has created an edge for us on the Under. 

When you look at this Celtics offense, they aren't dependent on one player carrying the offensive workload and having an extremely high usage rate the entire series. The Celtics have four players on the wing who are capable of creating offense and scoring. They are going to look for offensive advantages and mismatches in the defense and exploit them. 

On any given night, you can see a different player for the Celtics explode on offense. With Brown being the leading scorer in Game 1, dropping 32 points and the Cavaliers losing the game by 25 points, I think you will see an adjustment from the Cavaliers to try and slow down Brown. 

Brown was able to get in the interior of the Cavaliers' defense and bully some of their smaller guards around the rim. If the Cavaliers make an adjustment, it just means another player on the Celtics will have an advantage and the usage could swing towards that player. That's how this Celtics offense operates. 

This is why I think we should take advantage of Brown's Game 1 outburst of 32 points which caused his total to jump from 23.5 to 25.5. On any given night, anyone can be the leading scorer for the Celtics. So if you're going to give me an extra two points on Brown because he had 32 in Game 1, I'm betting the Under. 

Brown is projected to score 23.3 points on Thursday against the Cavaliers, so you can see how the move from 23.5 to 25.5 is a big deal for us when it comes to this wager. Based on this projection, we can price the Under 25.5 points at -184, but it is available at DraftKings at -115.

Jaylen Brown prop: Under 25.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Irving's in his bag

The Dallas Mavericks are down 0-1 in their series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, as they were blown out by 22 points in Game 1. This bet is on Kyrie Irving to go Over his assists total of 4.5 (+100), but the bet is — in all honesty — more about Luka Doncic.

If you watched the Thunder's first series against the New Orleans Pelicans, you would have seen Lu Dort absolutely lock up Brandon Ingram. Well, Doncic now finds himself in the Dorture Chamber, as Dort is the primary defender on Doncic.

Not only does Doncic have to deal with the perimeter defense of Dort, who also has the physicality to match the size of Doncic, but he also has to deal with all of the team defense and gameplan focused on him while also battling an injured knee.

After watching Game 1, I think Doncic might be more injured than we know, as there were plenty of times where he seemed content to defer to Irving. With Doncic going through it with his knee injury and also facing one of the best defenders in the NBA, I think the Mavericks will have to lean more heavily on the playmaking of Irving.

The Thunder are loaded with elite perimeter defenders, but Irving also has the best dribble package we have ever seen in the NBA. Irving can dance, he can separate, and he can create for his teammates regardless of who is guarding him. 

The Mavericks are going to need all of that and more from Irving in this series, and I think Irving will be able to dribble in crowds and find his lob threats of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively over the top, in addition to creating for 3-point shooters because the help defense of the Thunder is more focused on Doncic.

Irving is projected to have 5.3 assists on Thursday against the Thunder, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -160, but it is available at BetMGM at +100.

Kyrie Irving prop: Over 4.5 assists (+100 at BetMGM)