College Four-Play: Week 10 picks

The Associated Press recently completed a review of ACC athletic program spending and came up with the predictable conclusion that, typically, the more money you spend, the more success you have.

Boston College, Clemson and Virginia Tech – the three schools that spent the most on their football programs - have been to six ACC championships since 2005, the year the league took its current shape.

It kind of reminds me of how a buddy accurately describes what it’s like to visit Las Vegas: The amount of fun you have is directly proportional to the amount of money you spend.

It’s true.

Sports betting is a little bit the same. You can tinker and toy all year long with your regular units and you win some and you lose some. No big deal. You probably enjoy games a little more and you haven’t lost enough to be too upset about it. You haven’t won enough to do a whole lot with it either.

But the games that really get your blood flowing, that tiny handful of opportunities you wait and yearn  for all year long – the ones you lay a chunk of dough on that will either crush your soul or make you scream with joy – are the true ones that give you the most out of your gambling habit, healthy or otherwise.

For me, this TCU-Utah game is one of those games. I think it’s nuts that Utah is getting points here, let alone 4.5 or 5.

Sharp bettors Rockefellered the line and inflated it to as high as 6.5 at some books early in the week.  Then it got hammered back down. It doesn’t really matter much though. Utah is going to win straight up.

Why? Cause they’re better.  And they’re at home.

I like their quarterback(s) better.  I like their offense better. I like their special teams better. And even though they don’t get the stats that TCU does, I like their defense better. Lots of speed and nastiness, all the things I like in a defense. 

So it’s official, Utah is winning. They’ll get a trip to a BCS bowl game and I kinda hope they play Boise State because that would be a sweet matchup.

Before following me to the edge of the cliff, keep in mind I went 0-4 last week. I’m now 19-16-1 on the season.

Pick: Utah +5

Alabama vs. LSU (+6.5, 44)

This is going to be so devastating for LSU. Two losses in two weeks to the Alabama schools.  Ouch.

Their mediocre playcalling and unimaginative offense doesn’t stand a chance against Saban coming off a bye.

Pick: Bama -6.5

Air Force vs. Army (+6.5, 49)

Army is turning into the next Oregon. The Black Knights debut some wicked new gray unis Saturday with black helmets, making it their fifth different ensemble of the season. So fashionable.

I guess the old adage holds true that if you look good, you feel good because this squad is turning things around. The Knights need one more win to become bowl eligible after many seasons of suck.

Air Force needs one more win for bowl time too, but I don’t think they’ll get it here. They’ve gone through a gauntlet of games against San Diego State, TCU and Utah and now they face another tough run defense in Army.

Army is allowing just 117 yards on the ground per game this season and is scoring 30 points per game. 

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Posted by GeneralChaos
2 years ago

awful can be terrific. only average is bad for sure.
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Posted by bilsfn15
2 years ago

1-2 and the tenn/memphis game is already at 23-7 not even halftime... and you're tellin me he isn't working to sway people for the books? hahaha and how does this guy normally do pretty good? the best i've ever seen was 2-2
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Posted by codlocks
2 years ago

Give the guy a break. You aren't paying for these picks. Usually does pretty good, had a couple bad weeks, so what? Do your own research.
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Posted by codlocks
2 years ago

Give the guy a break. You aren't paying for these picks. Usually does pretty good, had a couple bad weeks, so what? Do your own research.
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Posted by ravik
2 years ago

Man this guy is bad.
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Posted by doobiebrother
2 years ago

Saturdays Plays- 5* on Bama/LSU under (44.5), 4* on Baylor/Oklahoma St. Over (73), 3* each on Maryland/Miami Under (46), Virginia/Duke Under (56), Illinois/Michigan Over (58), Navy M.L. (+115), Texas A&M (+4), Texas (-4), Arizona (+8)
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Posted by THEMUGG
2 years ago

If AF had Army's schedule they'd be at worst a 1-loss team...............AF wins & covers
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Posted by HuggyBear724
2 years ago

3 team parlay Indiana+ 17.5, Purdue +20, and Maryland+8 take this to the Bank, all are strong Dogs and are playing well so I think they will cover. I played them and expect to find big returns on my investment
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Posted by bilsfn15
2 years ago

how is purdue a strong dawg? wisky beat them 37-0 last year and this team is better...purdue just lost 44-10 at illinois...playing with backup QB...need to research that game more buddy
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Posted by HuggyBear724
2 years ago

I've been reading these college 4 plays all years and am pretty sure this guy has never hit any of them, his articles are entertaining but please don't think he will ever do better than 2-2 which will lose $$ every time. I do like his Utah+5, but I think LSU will be able to cover at home, Army has been a good by covering 50% of thier games also take the over 51 in that game they've gone over 6 out of 8 games, as for Tennessee & Memphis WHO CARES!!!
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Posted by meimei188
2 years ago

Wonderful. Share a website with you , input url in google sirch (http://www.clshoe.us) Believe you will love it.
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Posted by Skubishack
2 years ago

Army DID not wear BLACK helmets last week with their new digital camo uni's. Get the fact straight.... Shit man, it's right in the friggin picture you have posted here. And I watched the game so I can confirm the photo of camo uni's and helmets. Go Army!!! Kick some Flyguy Ass!!! As for poster jimmygo89 I'm suprised you didn't catch that considering you have General Patton as your avi. I guess you are just a poser also. 2nd Armored Division... Hell On Wheels... I served with patch over my heart. You are all dismissed.
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Posted by bilsfn15
2 years ago

if you were a real vet you wouldn't be dissing people...you would just be letting them know. im still a reservist with the navy and i wouldn't brag about what i did and then talk about others. Air Force wins this game by at least a TD
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Posted by Blusteel
2 years ago

With all due Respect, TCU has dispatched Tms, where Utah is fortunate NOT to be 6-2. COMMON OPPONENT #1 Air Force TCU Played Falcs (at hm) yet rolled 38-7, when AF still had services of Top-Ydge Man, Tew. UU Escaped Colo Springs having been outgained (AF +84 Y), Busted up in the Middle (AF avg'd 7.6 YPP), T-Overs was all that saved Utah (5-1) UU BETTER? I DISAGREE. They are HM, and this lines up for the Utes. YET, TCU is THE MOST EXPERIENCED TM, Top to Bottom in FBS TCU DEFENSE IS SUITED TO FACE AN UNTESTED SOPH QB (Wynn) FROGS DEF: #1 TTL YPG ALWD DEFENSE (226 YPG/ALWD) #1 TTL SCORING DEFENSE (7.9 PPG/ALWD) #1 PASS'G DEF (119 YPG ALWD) #2, 3 & 4 Next Closest Pass Defenses? Texas, Nebraska & LSU are hunched in the 148, 149 & 150 Range Nowhere NEAR the Frogs TO SAY UTAH IS BETTER? Again, I respectfully disagree NO QUESTION THIS IS COMPELLING MATCHUP We'll see how it comes out Interesting Read
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Posted by doobiebrother
2 years ago

Utah is capable of pulling the upset but TCU is clearly the better team and has played tougher schedule. Line right on the money as Frogs should win by about 5. I like Army but stat comparison useless without adjusting for huge gap in schedule strength. Tough spot for Air Force playing 10th straight week without a bye, 5th road game in 8 weeks, and coming off TCU and Utah back-to-back then travelling cross country. They've suffered a couple of key injuries too. Army had bye before last week's home game vs. VMI. Can't argue Tennessee/Memphis under but Vols may score 50 themselves stepping down from SEC defenses to Memphis. Bama should get there but points will be at a premium in defensive battle. Under is the play.
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Posted by doobiebrother
2 years ago

Red zone efficiency is a meaningless stat. There simply are not enough chances involved for it to mean anything.
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Posted by hawksfan10
2 years ago

You would expect that a team like Tennessee has terrible red zone numbers playing primarily SEC teams - and Oregon. I don't like the Vols AT ALL, but have you seen their schedule this year? I mean, good grief! Tennessee hammers Memphis and might score 55 on their own.
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Posted by bilsfn15
2 years ago

he will lose all his bets except Bama...Bama wins by 10+ TCU by a TD...AF outlasts Army wins by 13...Tennesse puts up over 40 in this game...i'm goin 45-17 over memphis (who is horrible and can't play D)
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Posted by nc1capper
2 years ago

ARMY marches to the pay window--------again
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Posted by hvacdawg
2 years ago

tennessee might score 53 by themselves. tennessee does have an offense dont forget. go back and check on who they've played. it's a sucker play. take the over.
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Posted by cantex48
2 years ago

hard not to notice THE OBVIOUS omision of previous week,or overall record!!!!
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Posted by ApocalypseLater
2 years ago

been watching your plays and reading your columns for awhile now, and i have to say, your comment about wanting to see a "Utah - Boise" matchup... just tells me you are not what college football is about... you do not get it, Jon Campbell! absolutely clueless!
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Posted by ronnievu
2 years ago

This dude was 0-4 last week. If he's still writting, I can maybe find a job too.
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Posted by jimmygo89
2 years ago

You hope that Utah gets a matchup against Boise St. in a BCS bowl game???????????? You're right, it would be a good matchup, and you just might get what you're looking for. The BCS bowl committe already screwed TCU and Boise St. out of an opportunity to play a "Big Time" program last bowl season when they were scheduled to play each other. Either TCU or Utah will probably play Boise St. in a bowl game, as the sorry a** BCS committee won't want to see any of these three teams play the so called "Super Powers" from the SEC, PAC-10 or Big 10 for fear that they'll get drummed again (right Bama / Oklahoma). I sincerely hope that these three teams DON'T have to play each other in a bowl game...AGAIN!! Bring on the Big Boys...let them put up, or shut up!!
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Posted by Rook12
2 years ago

I do like the Under in Tennessee vs. Memphis, but I have to disagree with the TCU/Utah call. I think TCU wins by 10.
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Top Response

Posted by Skubishack
2 years ago

"Army DID not wear BLACK helmets last week with their new digital camo uni's. Get the fact straight.... Shit man, it's right in the friggin picture you have posted here. And I watched the game so I can confirm the photo of camo uni's and helmets. Go A..."