Detroit encores can be brutal


Since the start of the 2003-04 season, Detroit has been one of the best NBA teams in the league. My database shows the Pistons a remarkable 173-79 SU and 136-111-5 against the spread (55.0%) over the past three years.

There are plenty of situations within that record that provide even more profit. Keep an eye out when Detroit comes in off a straight up win as an underdog or a favorite of 9 1/2 or less. Amazingly, the Pistons have posted a mind-boggling 69-40-3 ATS record for 63.3 percent in that set.

Those are some incredible numbers and Detroit has certainly hurt the books over the past few years. However, another unique situation has developed over that same time frame that can lead to even more profitable investments. Take a look.

The Pistons are one of the most dominant teams in the NBA. You can`t argue that fact. Offensively, Detroit ranks seventh in points per game (100.0), fifth in field-goal percentage (.465), 1st in 3-point FG percentage (.409), second in assists and first in turnovers (11.4). Defensively, the Pistons are ranked third in points allowed (90.6) and second in opponents 3-point FG percentage (.327). Simply put, Detroit is well balanced on both sides of the court and it can beat you a number a ways.

When challenged by the Pistons, opponents try to bring their "A-game" to defeat one of the league`s best. That`s where the trouble begins. Off an emotional and physical battle against Detroit, teams struggle something fierce in their next game. In fact, since the start of the 2003-04 season, NBA teams are a wallet-breaking 92-145 ATS after running the court with the Pistons. This trend continued Saturday night as the Memphis Grizzlies were downed by the New Orleans Hornets 95-86, losing straight up and ATS after being set as 7-point home favorites. The Grizzlies played Detroit on Friday night, losing 95-89 but covering the 8-point spread set by oddsmakers.

There are four great tighteners that work really well in this "Detroit Encore" trend. First, if our "play against" team is matched up against a non-conference opponent, this situation dips to a shocking 16-36 ATS. Second, if our "play against" team is battling a foe that enters off a straight up loss as a favorite, this angle crashes to a shocking 5-23 ATS. Third, if our "play against" team is running against an opponent that checks in off a momentum-building win of 11 points or more, this trend dips to 7-23 ATS. Finally, if our "play against" team is battling a foe that carries a won/loss percentage less than .400, this encore situation falls to a stiff 5-21 ATS!

Here is the next game that fall into this "Detroit Encore" trend.

February 1st: New Jersey travels to Cleveland

For the last three seasons, NBA teams have been emotionally and physically spent after playing Detroit. Be sure to keep an eye on that trend the rest of the season. It could lead you to the "profit land"!

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