If college football is a jungle, the Big XII South is where the lions hunt. With two of the NCAA’s biggest and baddest programs setting the bar somewhere in the stratosphere each year, this conference is always a tough place to play, but now Texas A&M and Texas Tech are creeping closer to the big cats’ killing grounds. As A&M coach Dennis Franchione put it: "The price of poker in the South is pretty high right now."
Texas Longhorns
Everyone’s saying this is the year. The Longhorns have lost to Oklahoma – and consequently lost the Big 12 South title – for the last five years and it’s now become a matter of state pride in Texas. Last year their only loss was 12-0 setback in the Red River Shootout, but a scintillating victory over Michigan in the Rose Bowl helped ease some of the tension. This year, many polls have picked the Horns second only to defending national champs, USC.
But everyone is wondering, can Vince Young get it done? After what he did to Michigan with his arm and his legs, you’ve got to believe he’ll succeed where Chris Simms and Major Applewhite did not. In his first two years as a starter, Young was more athlete than quarterback, but with experience and confidence, he should be able to bump up his completion percentage and truly threaten defenses with his arm.
The defense will be just as solid as last season with nine starters returning and former Auburn guru Gene Chizik taking over coordinating duties. Of course, tailback Cedric Benson is gone, but Selvin Young should be able to fill his cleats. The junior is insanely quick and after an injury last year, he’s health and back in top form. Look for big things.
Prediction: 11-0 straight up (SU), 7-4 against the spread (ATS)
Oklahoma Sooners
If this were any program other than Oklahoma, it would be in trouble. After a bad end to last season – a blowout loss to USC in the national championship game – and losing 15 starters in the offseason, including 10 NFL draft picks, the Sooners will not be the team they used to be. But coach Bob Stoops is one of the best salesmen in the country and after four straight top 10 recruiting classes, a few Adrian Peterson-type surprises are surely waiting in the wings.
The biggest question is, who will replace Jason White at quarterback? It’s down to junior Paul Thomson and redshirt freshman Rhett Bomar, neither of which seems to have the advantage at this point, but Bomar’s two interceptions in the spring game could haunt him when it comes time to name a starter.
The defense is looking shaky, with only four starters retuning. They get some veteran leadership with the return of former All-Big 12 defensive tackle Dusty Dvoracek, but although there are a number of players with some experience, there are bound to be some holes in this unit. Hardest hit could be the secondary, which lost three of four starters and the defensive backs coach.
Prediction: 10-1 straight up (SU), 4-7 (ATS)
Texas A&M Aggies
It all starts with the quarterback – and the Aggies have one of the best in the country. Reggie McNeal helped A&M bounce back from a miserable season in 2003 with 2,791 passing yards and 781 yards on the ground. And he never got the credit he deserved. This year, he should be a legitimate All-American consideration, especially with a very deep and very big receiving corps and a solid tailback in Courtney Lewis.
The defense is the big unknown here. Last year, they finished 93rd in the country against the pass and after losing both starting cornerbacks, they could be exposed against passing teams. But the rest of the defense remains intact and only one other starter is missing from last year’s unit.
Overall, this is a more experienced and mature team that learned a painful lesson in their embarrassing loss to Tennessee in the Cotton Bowl last year. Dennis Franchione proved he was one of the best coaches in the NCAA by taking the Aggies out of obscurity in his second year in College Station and he can take them even further this year.
Prediction: 8-3 (SU), 8-3 (ATS)
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Big 12 will see the new-look Cowboys this season – and it should look pretty good. There’s a nice mix of the old and the new in Stillwater, where former OSU offensive coordinator Mike Gundy is taking over as head coach and taking a new approach to both offense and defense.
Aggression will be the buzzword for Oklahoma State. Gundy has stepped back and handed over the offense and defense to new coordinators. They will toss out the old 4-2-5 defensive scheme for the new attacking approach brought in by new coordinator Vance Bedford from the Chicago Bears.
On offense, Larry Fedora brings in a new spread attack from Florida. But he’ll have to find a quarterback before any work can really get done. Donovan Woods ran the offense last season, redshirt freshman Bobby Reid is an exciting prospect, and Fedora might look to him to solve the Pokes’ passing problems. This new staff is the best thing that could have happened to Oklahoma State at this point, where things were getting a little bit stale.
Prediction: 8-3 (SU), 9-2 (ATS)
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Big 12’s scoring machine is ranked in the preseason top 20, for one simple reason: they finally started playing defense. Their lightly-regarded defensive unit jumped from No. 110 in the country in 2003, to No. 46 last year. The difference showed in their impressive Holiday Bowl win over Cal as 11-point underdogs.
Confidence is in no short supply in Lubbock this season, but is it really justified?
The popular thinking is that a monkey could run the Raiders’ offense and finish with dazzling passing stats, but just because three different pivots have done it in as many years, don’t think for a second that it’s an easy job. Senior QB Cody Hodges takes over the famous offense this year and although he’s got a tremendous receiver in Jarrett Hicks and a versatile tailback in Taurean Henderson, he’s still going to have to prove himself at the helm.
The problem this year could be with public opinion. Nobody believed last year and they took advantage with a 3-1 record as underdogs. This year, they will be laying points everywhere they go except for Austin and Norman. They may be a team on the rise, but that’s not a good thing for bettors.
Prediction: 7-4 (SU), 3-8 (ATS)
Baylor Bears
It might be wishful thinking, but there’s a lot of talk leading up to this season using the words Baylor and respectable in the same sentence. The real question is, will they be able to put together another season like last year’s 7-3 ATS campaign or will the media talk shave a few valuable points off those fat pointspreads?
If the Bears see more of the same 25 and 35-point handicaps, there could be value in Waco. The progress doesn’t always come in the form of an overtime win over Texas A&M – it’s in the smaller details that should matter to bettors. Like the fact that since Head Coach Guy Morriss arrived in 2003, the average margin of Baylor’s beatings has decreased from 39.4 points to 24.4. It’s hard to imagine the Big 12’s perennial punching bags will get any more respect from oddsmakers than they have in the past, so it might be a good idea to keep an eye on the conference’s worst team. Last season, they were 3-0 as underdogs of 30 points or more.
They certainly have enough experience on the squad to continue to improve. They have 13 returning starters not including Tulane transfer Will Blaylock who Morriss says is the new leader on offense. They don’t have talent like the rest of the conference, but with a solid defense and a good offensive line, things should continue to improve.
Prediction: 4-8 straight up (SU), 7-5 against the spread (ATS)
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