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Sunday's NFL Week 7 betting cheat sheet: Early action

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 43)

The Buccaneers are one of three remaining winless squads and their offensive line is in shambles, including the indefinite loss of Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks after he underwent foot surgery Tuesday due to a recurrence of a MRSA infection. Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, making his third start (first on the road) for Tampa Bay, has three touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Falcons are among the most disappointing clubs in the NFL and hope to start a turnaround when they host the struggling Buccaneers on Sunday. Billed as a Super Bowl contender, the Falcons have lost three straight contests and four of five and will be without standout receiver Julio Jones (foot) for the remainder of the season.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 7-point home faves. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 43.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+6.5) - Atlanta (+1.0) + home field (-3) = Falcons -8.5
TRENDS:

* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins
(+1, 49.5)


The Bears snapped a two-game slide with a 27-21 victory over the New York Giants on Oct. 10 and Jay Cutler posted his second straight game without an interception. Cutler, who played under Washington coach Mike Shanahan when the two were together with the Denver Broncos, was picked off four times by Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall the last time the Bears faced Washington in 2010.

The Redskins are converting only half of their trips into the red zone into touchdowns and Robert Griffin III is just 11-for-23 passing inside the 20. Washington is tied for 23rd in the league in takeaways defensively and Hall, whose four INTs against Cutler in the last meeting matched an NFL record, has only one pick in 2013.

LINE: The Redskins opened as 1-point home faves and are now +1.The total opened at 50.5 and is down a full point.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 7 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-1.5) + Washington (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins +1
TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

Tony Romo’s interceptions are always put under the microscope, but the Dallas quarterback has 14 touchdown passes against only three INTs this season. Jason Witten could be in for a big game, as the Philadelphia defense has struggled against tight ends this season and Witten has given the Eagles fits throughout his career.

The Eagles, who lead the NFL with 178.5 rushing yards per game, gave the ball to LeSean McCoy 25 times last weekend, resulting in a 116-yard performance for the league’s leading rusher. McCoy has 630 rushing yards and his stellar season has somewhat overshadowed teammate DeSean Jackson, who is second in the NFL with 589 receiving yards under first-year coach Chip Kelly. That said, nobody on the Eagles overshadows Jason Peters – literally – but the massive offensive tackle could miss Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury.

LINE: The Eagles opened as 3-point faves and are now -2.5. The total opened at 56.5 and is down to 54.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies in Philly. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-3.5) + Philadelphia (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles +0.5
TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC East.
* Over is 7-1 in Eagles last eight home games.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3.5, 44)

The Patriots rebounded from their lone loss with a dramatic victory last week, getting a touchdown pass from Tom Brady with five seconds to play to overcome then-unbeaten New Orleans. The victory came at a high price, however, as the Patriots lost linebacker and leading tackler Jerod Mayo for the season with a torn pectoral muscle and saw wide receiver Danny Amendola and cornerback Aqib Talib also exit with injuries. Neither player is expected to be available this week.

The New York Jets know the road to the AFC East title goes through New England and they have a chance to take a step in that direction when they host the divison-leading Patriots on Sunday. The Jets sit two games behind the Patriots and have lost the last six meetings, including a three-point loss at New England in Week 2. Rookie Geno Smith and New York have been unable to put together back-to-back wins and were throttled in a 19-6 home loss to Pittsburgh last week.

LINE: The Pats opened as 3.5-point road faves. The total opened at 43 and is currently 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-6.0) + New York (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets +7
TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings in New York.
* Over is 6-1 in Jets last seven games in Week 7.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-9.5, 43)

The Bills' 29th-ranked passing offense (213.5) would receive a jolt with the return of Stevie Johnson, who is in line to play after his ailing back - and a death in the family - reduced him to the role of a spectator last week.

Miami's less-than-stout offensive line has been a source of contention, but coach Joe Philbin reiterated the familiar refrain of "We believe in the guys we have." Lamar Miller, who was held to just 15 yards in a 26-23 loss to the Ravens, leads a porous ground attack (69.6 yards) that ranks 28th in the league.

LINE: Miami opened as a 9.5-point home fave. The total opened 43.5 and is down to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with a 20 percent chance of rain.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+6.0) - Miami (+0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -8.5
TRENDS:

* Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Miami.

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers (-7, 42.5)

St. Louis is finally achieving balance on offense with rookie Zac Stacy injecting some life into the run game, which has taken some pressure off Bradford. The Rams would do well to get off to a quick start and force the Panthers to the air, because St. Louis has struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the league at 130.5 rushing yards allowed per game.

Carolina has been wildly inconsistent but has shown signs of dominance, albeit against lower-tier teams. The defense has been particularly strong the past three games, allowing an average of 230 total yards over that stretch.

LINE:
Carolina opened as a 6-point fave and is now -7. The total opened at 42 and is up to 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+4.5) - Carolina (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -6.5
TRENDS:

* Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 11-3 in Panthers last 14 games in Week 7.
* Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (-1, 46.5)

Cincinnati earned its first road win of the season at Buffalo, but it came a lot harder than expected after the Bengals blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. QB Andy Dalton had come under fire after a string of uninspiring performances, but matched his number of touchdown passes from his previous four games in the win.

With top receiver Calvin Johnson slowed by a sore knee, Matthew Stafford found a new weapon in undrafted rookie Joseph Fauria, who became the first tight end in team history to catch three touchdown passes in a game. Linebacker DeAndre Levy, who is tied for the NFL lead with four interceptions, has been the biggest contributor to the turnover-focused defense.

LINE: The Lions opened as 1-point home faves. The total opened at 47 and is down half a point.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-2.0) - Detroit (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -2
TRENDS:

* Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Lions last six home games.
* Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 45.5)

San Diego has won its last two meetings with Jacksonville by a combined 76-27 score. QB Philip Rivers quietly has produced this season as he is tied for second in the league with 14 touchdown passes and third with 1,847 yards.

Jacksonville scored a moral victory last week as it covered the enormous 27-point spread in a 35-19 road loss to the undefeated Denver Broncos. Still, the Jaguars became the first team since the 1984 Houston Oilers to lose each of their first six games by 10 or more points.

LINE: The Chargers opened as 7-point road faves and are now -9.5. The total opened at 45 is up to 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with an 18 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (0.0) + Jacksonville (+9.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jacksonville +6
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
* Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

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Posted by madulamaximus
11 months ago

Appears to be many dogs. Last years contenders are failing to progress fwd. Parity figures prominent. Texans 0-6 ats??? Im taking the points. Dallas -5.5 cover...now a dog? Philly....Rams moneylining dog back 2 back??? Carolina....That's a 3 pick....Texans +6...Carolina-7...Philly-145....make it a 4 pic...add Jets +160!!!!......Politically correct selection. CASHDAT!!!!!!!!!
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Top Response

Posted by madulamaximus
11 months ago

"Appears to be many dogs. Last years contenders are failing to progress fwd. Parity figures prominent. Texans 0-6 ats??? Im taking the points. Dallas -5.5 cover...now a dog? Philly....Rams moneylining dog back 2 back??? Carolina....That's a 3 pick......."