Recommendation: Take San Francisco (#270)
Sometimes, the appropriate betting move in the NFL is to hold your nose and bet on the team that nobody wants; a squad offering legitimate pointspread value. That’s the case with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
This is truly a dismal spot for the road favorite. Green Bay faced divisional rival Chicago in their opener, beating up the Bears. Then they faced a HUGE revenge game on Sunday Night against the Seahawks; a ‘Big Ticket’ winner for myself and my clients with another ATS cover. And then the Packers enjoyed a third straight win and cover in a third straight big game, knocking off KC on Monday Night Football. At 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, the Packers now fly across the country to take on a 49ers team that just got annihilated in back-2-back road tilts, losing by a combined score of 90-25. Think Green Bay brings their ‘A’ game here? I don’t!
The 49ers have played one previous home game this season. They covered the spread by three touchdowns in that contest, a dominating win over a Vikings squad that hasn’t lost since. The Niners have been trailing by margin early in each of their last two losses, unable to get Carlos Hyde going as the focal point of the offense. But Green Bay can’t stop the run, ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing a full 5.0 yards per carry. That’s a bad omen for any team facing a desperate foe in this pointspread range! Look for San Fran to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field for extended stretches, grinding out yards and first downs on the ground.
Its surely worth noting that the 49ers said all the right things after last week’s debacle at Arizona. Colin Kaepernick’s quote following his four interception performance took full responsibility: “I nullified all the efforts of every player on the field today." Kaepernick has a stellar track record against Dom Capers defense, averaging more than 100 yards rushing in the last three meetings; games in which San Fran averaged 33 points per game. If we see anything close to that level of offensive production on Sunday and we can expect a competitive game from start to finish. Take the 49ers.
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