Lawrence: Handicapping Ivy League schools off back-to-backs
With the college basketball season now in full conference swing, let’s examine a handicapping theory that yields a much better return on your investment than the banks do these days.
It deals with teams playing back-to-back days without rest during the regular season. In particular, Ivy League games, noted for playing back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday nights.
What we’re looking to target on is how brain-chain teams fare the second night of these no-rest affairs. Let’s take a closer look at a few of the more suitable situations.
Creaky Double Digit Chalk
According to our database, the worst role for these teams is as double-digit home favorites, where they are just 53-82-3 ATS overall since the 1990-91 season.
Even worse, double-digit faves with a .687 or greater win percentage are just 16-38 ATS.
Digging deeper, if these tired hosts are facing an opponent that was a dog of 16 or more points the previous night, they check in at 14-34 ATS, including 5-20 ATS provided chalk has lost two or more home games this season.
Fool Me Twice
Revenge serves as a motivating tool in these no-rest Ivy League matchups, especially when we bring a visiting team in with double-revenge incentive from a pair of losses suffered last season.
That’s confirmed by a 50-32-1 ATS mark when these wonder-boys are on the road, including 34-13-1 ATS when taking seven or more points fueled with double-revenge incentive.
Better yet, bring these guys in with a lukewarm win percentage of .375 or less in this role and they make the Dean’s List, going 26-8 ATS.
Our third and final theorem occurs when these non-rested Ivy Leaguers are on the Saturday night road as dogs off a loss of 13 or more points.
Dress them up as dogs in this role and they're 62-47-1 ATS, including 39-24 ATS when taking 10 or more points.
Bring them into these same games with a win percentage of .400 or less and they ratchet up to 35-14 ATS, including 21-6 ATS when facing a foe off a win of more than 10 points.
There you have it, the perfect calamine lotion for Ivy League teams in constant motion.
Keep an eye on this hypothesis throughout the end of the Ivy League campaign. Remember, should you feel a strange itch coming on, don’t scratch it. Simply apply the proper antidote.