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Pacquiao losing shine with bettors vs. Marquez

Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez just can’t quit each other.

Their first three fights, contested over the course of seven-plus years, were world-class affairs that elevated the legacies of both men.

The future Hall of Famers will meet for a fourth time, in a welterweight bout from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas Saturday.

As of Thursday, online sportsbook 5Dimes.com had Pacquiao as a -270 favorite, while Marquez is + 230.

“The price on Pacquiao has been between  -260 and -350, depending what part of the globe the sportsbook you play at is located,” renowned boxing oddsmaker Joey Oddessa told Covers.com. “I'm not looking for value in a fight, just a winner. I don't think Marquez will win the fight.

Pacquiao is 2-0-1 against Marquez, although that record could easily be reversed. In a 2004 featherweight bout, Marquez recovered from three first-round knockdowns to salvage a draw.

Almost four years later, Pacquiao eked out a split decision to retain his super featherweight belt. Last November, in a fight contracted for 144 pounds, Pacquiao won a controversial majority decision.

Things have changed since the third fight, when Pacquiao was a 10-to-1 favorite. In June, Pacquiao lost a dubious split decision to +300 underdog Timothy Bradley. Despite winning everywhere but on the official scorecards, the Bradley performance was underwhelming and marked the fifth consecutive fight in which Pacquiao failed to score a knockout.

Marquez, 39, appears to be aging gracefully. He rebounded from the last Pacquiao defeat to win a unanimous decision over Serhiy Fedchenko in April. His bulked-up physique, sculpted with the help of strength and conditioning coach Angel Hernandez, has narrowed the size gap.

After three close fights and no wins, the question remains: Can Marquez win a close decision against Pacquiao? As the Bradley fight proved, Pacquiao is not bulletproof on the judges’ scorecards.

The three judges for Saturday’s bout, John Keane, Steve Weisfeld and Adalaide Byrd, are reliable professionals. Weisfeld and Byrd correctly scored last week’s Austin Trout-Miguel Cotto fight for Trout.

Analyzing the judges, however, is a foolhardy exercise. Just when think you have the judges figured out, they stun you with a head-scratching verdict (see Pacquiao-Bradley).

“I think the Bradley fallout may help judging overall, but we can only determine that over a longer time frame,” Oddessa says. “In the high profile-bout between Cotto and Trout last week, the judges got the scores correct when only a minority thought Trout would get a fair shake. So with the judges in the spotlight, I expect an honest fight if it goes to the cards.”

And so it comes down to Marquez, the old Mexican counter puncher who has become Pacquiao’s kryptonite. The betting public, normally all-in on Pacquiao, has reversed course.

“I'd say the general public is on the underdog,” says Oddessa. “Wiseguys will look to lay the price on Manny late.”

If history is any indication, Pacquiao and Marquez will fight for 12 rounds, invariably leaving things in the judges’ hands.

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Posted by SportsPredictor
1 year ago

Agree 100% with OmahaStylee! Great boxing matches of the past, completely destroyed by JUDGES! Horrific decisions clearly seen by the public, took boxing down to its lowest level in history. However, will place my first boxing bet ever on Marquez, for fun. $10 bet on 5Dimes to have someone to root for. Hey, he might get "lucky" :) GL
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Posted by OmahaStylee
1 year ago

You should never have to say "I expect an honest fight if it goes to the cards." That burns me. Boxing has no integrity and I refuse to wager on it. Decisions do not award the true winner, they are rendered in an attempt generate revenue for future fights.
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Posted by DrCypionate
1 year ago

Looks to me by the thumbs down that its a fight that only you doesnt want to see zegorgeous !!
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Posted by DrCypionate
1 year ago

Looks to me by the thumbs down that its a fight that only you doesnt want to see zegorgeous !!
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Posted by sailorman1965
1 year ago

Pacman wins by Knockout!!! 8 - 9 Th round
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Posted by nc1capper
1 year ago

JMM
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Posted by houseman
1 year ago

I SAY THE FIGHT DOESNT GO THE DISTANCE....THEY MUST KNOW EACH OTHER WELL BY NOW....THE KO IS DUE!
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Posted by GolfMaster2u
1 year ago

I concur! I'll stick to UFC's Diaz Fight..I won't give Boxing .01 cent
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Posted by Skipbone
1 year ago

I'll see it.
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Posted by ZeGorGeOUs
1 year ago

another fight nobody wants to see again.
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Top Response

Posted by nc1capper
1 year ago

"JMM"