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NHL teams up 3-0 win Game 4 only 59 percent of the time

Don't tear up your Canucks or Penguins Stanley Cup futures ticket just yet. Hockey, unlike baseball and basketball, has seen its share of miraculous playoff comebacks.

Three NHL teams have come back down 3-0 to win a best of seven playoff series: the '42 Toronto Maple Leafs, the '75 New York Islanders and the 2010 Philadelphia Flyers. OK, it's a long shot that either Vancouver or Pittsburgh will win four straight to advance to the second round, but the chances are much better than they won't get swept.

Since 1995, teams that owned 3-0 series lead end up sweeping the series 59 percent of the time, meaning the trailing club extends the series in 41 percent of the 39 instances in the sample size. Not too shabby.

Last season, two teams fought back from 0-3 deficits only to lose the seventh game – Chicago crawled back against Vancouver in the opening round and Detroit forced a seventh game in Round 2 against San Jose.

In 2010, the Philadelphia Flyers became one of three teams to ever come back from a 0-3 deficit to win a series, shocking the Boston Bruins in Game 7 even after they trailed 3-0 in that series-deciding game.

The Canucks and Penguins both play Wednesday and are short road underdogs.

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Posted by r2r
2 years ago

Honestly, stats like this are a joke. You have to look at things like one poster mentioned that it's usually the fave up 3-0 with a game 4 at home. You also have to take into account who is up, where the game is, who's injured and then it's really a guess. I would say that when you have a top seed down 3-0 on the road you are looking at 50-50, and with the Pens down, you are looking at pretty much the same thing regardless of their seeding, I imagine one of these 2 series goes beyond game 4. I am from Vancouver so I will not speculate further as I am already down a few bucks as I am sure you can imagine.
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Posted by Mkuhi
2 years ago

yeh....i love the wording....playoff teams ONLY win 59 percent of the time, so should we be suprised they win the majority of the time?
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Posted by Popo21
2 years ago

considering the Canucks are +105 and the Pens are +110, this article should be focusing on the fact that teams up 3-0 win 59% of the time....why take pretty much even odds on a team that has only 40% chance of winning??? Especially in the case of Van, where they are missing they're best player and also playing on the road. This article ignores the fact that most teams down 3-0 are playing the 4th game at home because in most cases the fav is the one leading at that point.
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Posted by SugeKnight
2 years ago

however what are the home-away splits in that LIGHTBULB last two years the home team has won a sweep-potential game 3 out of 3 times i believe...
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Posted by Sirpd11
2 years ago

Although the Pens and Canucks are only slight underdogs tonight, there were probably many times throughout the years that the team facing elimination posted at +150 or higher. Hit those odds at 41 percent, and even a grade school gambling education would tell you, youre a winner.
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Posted by QBUN
2 years ago

KINGS to raise d cup!!!!
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Posted by Ashton_Grewal
2 years ago

Simmer down there. We're just pointing out the numbers. I know I was thinking that the sweep was much more common, like 75 or 80 percent of the time.
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Posted by j_hedon
2 years ago

What a completely useless and moronic write-up. So you're saying it pays to bet the team who has a 41% chance of winning as opposed to the team who wins in 59% of the situations. I believe this type of math skill was taught in the early grade-school years. No wonder you're a writer and not a successful gambler. Please do not write anything else involving percentages. It is embarrassing to the covers community.
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Top Response

Posted by j_hedon
2 years ago

"What a completely useless and moronic write-up. So you're saying it pays to bet the team who has a 41% chance of winning as opposed to the team who wins in 59% of the situations. I believe this type of math skill was taught in the early grade-school..."