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Any update?
thanks, Jason
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WINNERZZZ | 21 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bailey314: Thursday spreadsheet is up I come up with 10 games.Side note on NBA.I've been trackinggames where Sagarin has 3 pt or more difference from opener.If you play toward vegas 1-9 if you go with Sagarin 9-1.(have only tracked this for a few days. I created a spreadsheet with NBA data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlyDx4nqXCfEdEJMcGpxRjhFQlR3cFVMNXZrbFJuQlE#gid=0 All data came from thepredictiontracker.com except for the public %, which came from covers.com. I played with the numbers and found that with no filtering, when there is a difference of 3 between Sagarin and the Vegas opening line you end up 73-73 since December 29; over the past two weeks it has been terrible, going 2-8. Someone mentioned that the system breaks down when Sagarin predicts large victories, so i adjusted for when Sagarin predicts the home team to win by 12 or more. So if Sagarin predicts a home team victory by less than 12 (or the road team to win) and there is a difference of 3 from the Vegas opening line, siding with Vegas has gone 52-39 since December 29 (57%), although only 2-6 over the past week and 11-11 over the past two. If you get cute and side with Sagarin when Sagarin predicts a home team victory by 12 or more and there is a difference of 3 from vegas, you would've improved to 81-60 since December 29 (57%), 4-6 over the past week and 19-15 over the past two. Definitely needs some tweaking, but with any luck there may be a decent system ready to go by the time cbb winds down. |
beaverfan23 | 163 |
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Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23: Thanks bailey, I am interested to see how this works in the NBA. Can you or someone else keep a YTD record somewhere? I'll try and put together a YTD spreadsheet over the next few days. |
beaverfan23 | 318 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bailey314: Only added NBA so I would have all the games in 1 spot.Don't see how this would work in NBA why not? similar principle, you're looking for differences between the predictions from a set of rankings and the lines set by the books and exploiting the difference, right? you would need to find an NBA equivalent of the KP rankings to use as a base. |
beaverfan23 | 318 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bailey314: Early numbers for Monday
Nice work on the spreadsheet. Noticed that you've added NBA. Was thinking the same thing myself; in theory the system should work for the NBA (any sport for that matter). I've been bouncing around this site: https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ using the different rankings (someone posted it to the thread earlier), just haven't settled on a ranking system that i like: |
beaverfan23 | 318 |
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Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99: I've noticed that the same teams keep popping up as plays over and over. For example these teams are coming at us a lot: Pitt St John's Rhode Island CMU Ind. St. OK St. Drake Rice SMU Tex Tech These teams are a combined 62-94-2 ATS With that kind of headwind, it's a miracle we're at 55% on the year. What is it that Vegas finds so attractive about these teams that KP does not to assign them higher lines than KP? I'm sure there are others (William & Mary comes to mind) just as there are others that Vegas scorns that KP loves (Wisconsin) What factor is Vegas valuing more than KP in these crap teams? If we can figure this out it will give us a leg up in all of the games not just the system plays. The more eyes looking at this the better. One other thing I've noticed, it seems that Vegas for whatever reason has recently been overvaluing teams that are ranked very by KP, especially in instances when those teams were playing teams ranked significantly higher by KP. Monday's plays for example: William and Mary +11 (HDN); KP rank - 301; Opponent's rank - 59; James Madison +11.5 (RDT); KP rank - 229; OR - 69; Towson +13 (RDA); KP rank - 342; OR - 190; Santa Clara -1 (HFA); KP rank - 236; OR - 134; Citadel +9.5 (RDT); KP rank - 334; OR - 255; Prairie View -5.5 (HFT); KP rank - 329; OR - 331; Yesterday i think it was URI +5.5 (HDT); KP rank 252; OR - 78; TxTech +11.5 (HDT); KP rank 244; OR - 27; Small sample size obviously, so take it with a grain of salt. I also don't think it should affect the system plays at this point, but I think might be worth paying attention to for the time being. |
beaverfan23 | 318 |
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Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23: Official Sunday Plays: Illinois +1.5 (HDT) Thats all I see. It should be noted that they are playing against wisconsin, wisky is very over-valued by KP so this system will probably bet against them all year. Proceed with caution Minnesota a play? Looks like it opened at Minn -7 on Covers; KP projects Minn winning by 3. |
beaverfan23 | 377 |
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