PGA Farmers Insurance Open betting preview

Jan 23, 2013 |
Covers Expert Matt Fargo thinks Jimmy Walker is worth a look as a long shot this week.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Covers Expert Matt Fargo thinks Jimmy Walker is worth a look as a long shot this week.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. No less than 156 golfers will be eyeing the $6,000,000 purse this week in what is the biggest field of the young PGA Tour season.

Torrey Pines’ North and South courses are the hosts for the 46th consecutive year. Scoring low on the North Course is imperative because the South will not give in. The South Course is the longest on Tour at 7,698 yards but that does not mean big hitters will dominate.

Tiger Woods (+650) is the heavy favorite this week. After finishing in a tie for 44th here in 2011, he skipped last year’s event to play in the Abu Dhabi Championship. He’s back this year after missing the cut in the United Arab Emirates last week. He is a six-time winner of this event but this will be just his second start in the past five years here. We will use him as a hedge.

Bubba Watson (+1,500) has been off since the opening Hyundai Tournament of Champions where he finished T4 in the rain-shortened event. He finished T13 at Torrey Pines a year ago and has had success in the odd-numbered years of the tournament. He finished T4 in 2007, T7 in 2009 and was the winner in 2011. Watson has finished 12th or better in five of his last six events.

Nick Watney (+2,000) has not played since Kapalua where he finished T14 after the 54-hole weather-shortened event. That was his first go around with his new Nike equipment and he was clearly more comfortable than Rory McIlroy was overseas. He has also enjoyed success in the odd years at Torrey Pines. Watney won here is 2009 and finished T6 in 2011 after a Sunday 63. He has finished in the top ten in four of his 10 starts here.

Hunter Mahan (+3,000)
won twice before April last season but carded only two top-10 spots the rest of the way. He has gained a new perspective after a near disaster in Israel in November and following a T26 at the Hyundai, he is back to a place that has treated him well. Mahan has finished tied for sixth in each of the last two years at the Farmers.

Bill Haas (+4,000)
fell apart on us last week but we’ll go back with him here. He has an exceptional history at Torrey Pines, finishing T11 or better in three of his last four appearances. He has shot even par or better in 19 of his last 24 rounds here.

For a long shot, we'll take a look at Jimmy Walker (+5,000). He has opened 2013 with a couple top-25 finishes after closing last year with a T10 and a T4, so he should keep the momentum going. Walker has never won on Tour but his time will come and this could be the place. After missing the cut here in 2009 and 2010, he broke through with a T29 finish in 2011. Last year a Friday 65 helped him earn a T8 finish.

Recommended Tournament Win Six Pack at the Farmers Insurance Open - All for 1 Unit

Tiger Woods (+650)
Bubba Watson (+1,500)
Nick Watney (+2,000)
Hunter Mahan (+3,000)
Bill Haas (+4,000)
Jimmy Walker (+5,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 3 events: -15 Units

Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge - 5 Units

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