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Handicapper: MMA Oddsbreaker
I was confused by this fight. McCann suffered a broken orbital in a fight just 3 months ago and now she is back in there already against a better striker than her last opponent. She did win her last fight, but this seems too soon to be coming back to me. I think Lipski is the much more talented striker between the two and they are both mainly strikers. McCann is the tougher fighter though and will be the one putting her head down and moving forward with strikes. Lipski will look to stay on the outside and win with technique.
I think McCann could also win with takedowns if she can keep this fight close on the feet. I don’t see any submissions happening in this fight, but if McCann can land takedowns late in rounds and work some ground and pound then she could steal those rounds. She was obviously medically cleared for this fight as well so maybe the broken orbital won’t be an issue at all here. I do think Lipski is going to land some hard shots on it though, so she could put her away with a TKO if she can get enough accumulated damage on her. She could also win a 15-minute striking battle.
I think this betting line is way off though and that is what is making me want to pick McCann here. If this was a PK betting line, then I would just take Lipski, but I don’t think she deserves that line after her underwhelming debut performance. I will say this is a dog or pass fight and I am going to pick McCann as my winner because of the value and I am going to take a 1u shot on her at +240. This is purely a shot at the number though and not a confident pick at all. You can find better than +226 if you shop around as well.
Pick: Molly McCann via Split Decision
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