College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Neither the Iowa Hawkeyes nor the Clemson Tigers believes in moving quickly, the Hawkeyes playing at a bottom-10 pace in the country while the Tigers are just outside of the bottom-30. And neither shoots well from deep, Iowa generally reluctant to heave from long range and Clemson generally middling at it. Nor does either defense emphasize forcing 3-pointers.

The Northern Iowa Panthers are my opening round long shot. Since the start of February, the Panthers have ranked in the Top 15 in 3-point accuracy. That’s important for a team that operates as slowly as it does. The Panthers are also fifth in that span in eFG%.

Johnnies forward Zuby Ejiofor averaged more than seven rebounds amongst the trees of the Big East. Northern Iowa has a couple starters that run 6-foot-8 but are nowhere near Ejofor’s level of athleticism. For the most part, the Panthers don’t bother crashing the offensive glass and face their toughest challenge against this St. John’s defense. Ejiofor is also active on the offensive boards (3.3 per game). Ejiofor was a beast on the glass in the Big East tournament and projections call for 8+ rebounds versus UNI.

Dent dished out a dozen assists in his first two Big Ten tournament games before getting hurt and averaged almost 10 assists in the 12 games prior to that minor injury. Dent is fine for the opener against Central Florida. The Golden Knights are one of the weakest defenses the Bruins have faced in a while, with UCF giving up 14 assists an outing and taking on a UCLA offense that ranks Top 40 in assist ratio. Projections sit as high as 10.3 assists from Dent on Friday.

This is a big spread but Purdue coach Matt Painter is 17-8 ATS as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament while going 22-7 ATS in the first two rounds. The Boilermakers have the highest-rated offense in KenPom history. They take care of the ball, shoot extremely well from everywhere on the floor, and generate second chances on the glass. Meanwhile, Queens is a fast-paced team that sits outside the top 300 in adjusted defense, opponent eFG% (54%) and defensive rebounding rate. The Royals are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against high-major opponents this season, with the only cover coming by the hook. Purdue has the firepower to build a big lead and the depth to extend that lead when key starters rest.

Florida cracked 100 points against both North Florida and Saint Francis early in the season, the only teams it played that rate worse than Prairie View A&M. They also both play at a pace similar to A&M's, No. 23 in the country. That many possessions will give Florida's talent edge too many chances at easy buckets.

Kansas’ offense was in the toilet in the home stretch, especially in the opening 20 minutes. It’s averaged less than 33 first-half points in the past 10 outings, scoring fewer than 30 in four of those games. The Lancers slow things down, protect the perimeter, and allow the 10th fewest 1H points per game in the country. Kansas has gone 3-7 Over/Under on its first half team totals over the past 10 games.

His recent output was tempered due to lineup changes, with the Paladins going smaller in the conference tournament. He scored 14 points in 24 minutes in each of the first two games before striking for 21 in 30 minutes in the final. He’s tallied 12 or more points in 14 of his last 17 games and is projected for 13 points Friday. Bowser has logged 30+ minutes just six times since returning from injury in early February but averages 16.7 points in those games. He’ll play major minutes vs. UConn.

Since the start of January, Miami is 324th in the country in opponent 3PT% (37.4%). Mizzu's offense will need to take advantage of that weakness and that means getting the ball to Trent Pierce on the perimeter. The 6-foot-10 forward is a matchup nightmare who can stretch the floor. He's coming off a game against Kentucky where he went 1-4 from deep. However, he had cleared 1.5 treys in his previous six games, knocking down 2.5 threes per game at a 42.9% clip during that span.

Michigan’s offense is elite across actions, ranking near the top nationally in big cut + rolls, pick + pops, and general inside-out actions. That’s not ideal for Saint Louis, which is smaller and poor defensively at the rim. Likewise, St. Louis should enjoy some of its own offensive advantages, particularly in transition, where Michigan has been well below the national average, allowing 1.02 PPP. 

Jaxson Kohler is an inside-out threat for MSU. He’s able to score inside but also stretch the defense with his 3-point shooting. The Spartans will need to knock down some triples to match UL’s perimeter points. Kohler had 12 points in just 26 minutes in the Round of 64 blowout and scored 15 or more in the final three games of Big Ten play.

The Spartans can bully UL, especially down low. The Cardinals gave up 44 points in the paint to the Bulls and rolled out the red carpet to the rim in the home stretch of ACC play. Protecting the paint is an issue for Louisville, Its allowed an average of 38 PITP per game over its last 13 outings. Michigan State has capable bodies to battle in the paint, a deeper bench, and fresher legs. Getting MSU shorter than two bucks seems like a steal.

The Frogs’ offense is normally driven by fast break buckets, points of turnovers, and offensive rebounds. Those are three areas in which the Blue Devils deny opponents. Duke cleans the defensive glass, takes care of the basketball, and its efficient attack makes foes start possessions off the in-bounds, forcing them into the halfcourt. Duke switched to zone defense in the second half vs. Siena, limiting the Saints to 23.5% shooting. Expect to see more zone against TCU, which shoots 33.3% from 3-point range.

The Longhorns biggest weakness are their 3-point defense (270th in opponent 3PT%) and tendency to foul (307th in opponent FT rate). However, the Bulldogs attempt threes at one of the lowest rates in the country while ranking just 277th in FT rate. On the other side of the floor, Gonzaga has impressive defensive stats but that's puffed up by weak competition in the West Coast Conference. The Zags struggled to contain more athletic teams earlier in the season and Texas has a highly-efficient offense. The Zags don't have any wings capable of locking up Dailyn Swain and don't have a rim protector to contain Matas Vokietaitis.

Nebraska ran through Troy in part thanks to a 26-10 advantage in points in the paint, to be expected against a mid-major opponent. The Vanderbilt Commodores will not yield such chances, one of the best interior defenses in the SEC.

High Point is 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo while ranking 175th in opponent 2PT% (51.6%) despite playing an extremely weak schedule. The Panthers were torched by Wisconsin's guards in the first round and were fortunate the Badgers didn't have any offensive threats in their frontcourt to expose High Point's lack of size. Arkansas forward Trevon Brazile can do exactly that. Brazile is coming off a game where he scored 19 points despite shooting just 1-7 from deep. He has scored 16+ points in five of his last six contests and we know Calipari trusts him in big games with how he played in last year's tourney run.