Posted: 3/19/2017 12:23:52 AM
George Washington -5.5(-110) *7.5/6.82 units
The Colonials are 4-1 in their last 5 winning by an average of 3 ppg.
They are 8-2 in their last 10 winning by an average of 4.2 ppg.
The Flames are 2-3 in their last 5 losing by an average of 8.2 ppg.
They are 4-6 in their last 10 losing by an average of 5.6 ppg.
The bigger story here is who these teams have faced. There is a big SOS discrepancy.
In their 2 loses(last 10) GW played Richmond and Davidson. Ranked #85 and #86 by KP. SOS rankings of 89 and 77.
In their last 8 wins(where they have won by an average of 7 ppg) their opponents averaged a #166 ranking, and an average SOS ranking of 124.
UIC is ranked #242 by KP, w/ a SOS of 260
In the Flames 4 wins(where they have won by and average of 4.75 ppg) their opponents had an average ranking of #245 w/ a SOS of 220. Those 4 schools were...Stony Brook, Wisc-GB, Detroit, and Youngstown State.
In their last 2 point win, it's important to know that Stony Brook was without starting point guard Lucas Woodhouse. Stony Brook went small with 4 guards which UIC wasn't ready for. UIC led by 3 at half. They adjusted, and without Woodhouse, UIC inevitably went on a run. The concerning thing is that UIC was up 65-50 at the 2:50 mark. Stony Brook got back into the game and almost tied it up for OT.
How could this happen? Answer, youth. UIC has the youngest/least experienced starting lineup in all of NCAA. Their entire roster consists of 1 senior, 5 juniors, 3 sophomores, and 6 freshmen.
GW counters with some vets. Patrick Steeves is a graduate Senior. Matt Hart Senior, Tyler Cavanagh Senior, Yuta Watanabe Junior, and Jeren Sina Junior(Seton Hall transfer)
After looking at UIC's schedule...I've isolated their best win. @ Depaul. A 9-23 team who's ranked #187 by KP. And that wasn't much of a road trip, only about a 25 minute bus ride to Rosemont.
GW is ranked #124 by KP w/ a SOS of 100
GW on the other hand has about 7 quality wins imo.
Toledo, George Mason, St. Boneventure, Dayton, Harvard, Temple and Davidson.
UIC hasn't faced any team in the top 50 of anyone's power rankings this year. Vs 51-100 they have a PR of -9.3. GW vs 51-100 has a PR of +2.5. VS 101-200 UIC has a PR of -5.8. GW vs 101-200 has a PR of +5.3.
LAST 3 GAMES
-GW averaging 9.7 TO's pg vs UIC 14.3 TO's pg
-GW averaging 10 opp TO's pg vs UIC 8 pg
-GW averaging 12 fouls pg vs UIC 17.3 pg
-GW averaging a 79.2% FT% vs UIC 75.7%
-GW averaging 46.45% shooting vs UIC 42.4%
ON THE BOARDS
-GW averages 10 offensive rebounds pg(#77) vs UIC 10.5 off reb allowed pg(#329)
-UIC averages 9.9 offensive reb pg(#83) vs GW 7.6 off reb allowed pg(#51)
-UIC averages 25.6 def rebounds pg(#36) vs GW 21.9 def reb allowed pg(#69)
GW is 6-0 su as favs last 10
GW is 5-5 ats last 10
GW is 1-3 ats away last 4
UIC is 0-6 su as a home dog, 3-3 ats
UIC is 2-7-1 ats last 10
UIC is 0-5 ats at home last 5
My system has a GW -7.55, but that's just #'s. I'll take the much more experienced and battle tested squad vs the young and less experienced team who's had less than average competition this year.
I know you all might think this is chasing since my Saturday card burned to a crisp. But I've had my eye on this one for 3 days now. It was going to be my first 10 unit play of the year, but only a 7.5 one now.