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!!!! CBB Sunday !!!!

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102-78-2 ytd netting +168.8 units...
14-17 (POD's) -66 units...

5-5  on Saturday netting -20 units.  Still a very modest  run of 29-15-1 run in the past 12 days on straight bet's netting +203 units & 44-25-1 since 12/03 on straight bets now netting a total of +222 units in 15days work. As always here's yesterdays thread below...


1st play for today is:

IPFW@Tenn-Martin over 141 for 20 units... Tenn-Martin is currently 6-1 to the under but in these games they have faced some very tough defense's. Here are the defense's that the Skyhawks have faced during this 6 and 1 under run followed by their point's per game allowed and defensive rank:

@Louisville (56.1ppg) ranked 14th
@Ohio (62.1ppg) ranked 82nd
@Arky st (65ppg) ranked 144th
@Miss St (63.4ppg) ranked 104th
@UAB (60.8) ranked 61st
vsBall St (55.2ppg) ranked 12th
@MTSU (63.2ppg) ranked 59th

So 6 road games and just one home game slammed against a bunch of teams who play very solid defense in the process. Now we have the opportunity to of a fast paced team (IPFW 60.9 shots per game ranked 35th) that lacks discipline on defense (IPFW 74.9ppg ranking 309th) coming into town for just their 4th home game this season for the Skyhawks. The 2 defenses the Skyhawks have faced this season at home that haven't ranked in the top half of NCAA-1 basketball (Lamar(173rd) &Central-Arkansas(340th)) finished with totals of 149 & 143 point scored in regulation. Lamar was able to score 80pts on 61% shooting from the field while Central -Arkansas was able shot the ball 70 times in route to a 75-68 win on the road as they ranked 23rd in shots per game at 61.5 shots per game, which is just 0.6 shots per game more than IPFW. This one should have a decent shot at exceeding today's total set @ 141 with both defenses allowing their opponent's to shoot 49.5% & 47.7% from the field. Those number's are alarming for a team like IPFW who looks to push the tempo...POD
 
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I also lean to the Skyhawks +3.5 in that same game at home, but just can't justify playing them as their defense is bad. I think their tough schedule gives us more value on the over than it does to siding with the Skyhawks at home. Although I wouldn't b shocked to check and see a Skyhawks win later on today I just can not wager on them getting just 3.5 points (even at home)...

Came real close to taking the +3.5 but i'm passing it up...
 
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Posted: #4
Bol man
 
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Posted: #6

Hey man where in Ohio are you from?  Im from Lima bro

 
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I think the fools gold play today is Loyola-Maryland +6.5. Talk about setting a trap for the public to jump on. Everyone is going to see +6.5 points for an 8-1su team but most will fail to realize they have played a very easy schedule to get to the 8-1. It's very tempting for me to grab some St. Bonnies laying the chalk. I will ponder it a little bit and maybe later on I can get a better number closer to game time. We all know how these CBB number's move like the no other sport...
 
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Posted: #8
How ya like Oral + 7??
 
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Posted: #9

I hate that my 3 locals pick and chose the O/U's they offer

No-go on all 3 for the game you picked but good luck on that one.

 
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Posted: #10
Adding:

Missouri -33 for 20 units... Mizzo is going to put up a big number on a very bad team today. It's that simple in relation to this wager. No need for me to dig any deeper than understanding whats both of these teams are capable of. Mizzo is capable of making a deep run this year as William & Mary has seemed to regress from just a 9 win team last year against D-1 teams. This play is not as square as it seems and that's a good thing IMO...
 
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Posted: #11
I've never quite understood some books showing totals only on "TV" games.  WTF difference does it make??
 
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Posted: #12
That's it for now. Other leans consist of:

St Bonnies -6.5 & Loyola-Marymount +15.5


 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by TBallgame:

I've never quite understood some books showing totals only on "TV" games.  WTF difference does it make??
Some books just conduct business that way. These are usually smaller action books aka locals with websites or some of the smaller online books like SBG just to name one that sucks on totals and smaller games. This is way getting a 5Dimes, Bookmaker and/or Pinny account comes in very handy. It's a must for a everyday CBB sports bettor not residing in Vegas...
 
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Posted: #14
Thanks Odds, I understand that, but what's their resoning behind it?  Maybe nothing I guess, just habit.  Locals I can sort of see, but an OS book even a small one??   I use Heritage a lot & love it.  BTW just played Mo. @ 32,  BOL to us!!!!
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by livie:

I hate that my 3 locals pick and chose the O/U's they offer

No-go on all 3 for the game you picked but good luck on that one.

Yes locals suck. I talked one of my locals iv'e used for a very long time to offer what other locals do not in relation to these smaller games. He's made out just fine. He actually emails me on a daily basis for opinions on which games not to put up on the board. For example he does not offer any action Tenn-Martin game because he values my opinion on the advantage in that game. However he offers everything else based on what Bookmaker puts out. Just an example on how some locals operate but most don't even offer any of the added or extra games. They are not big operations... 
 
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Posted: #16
GL buddy
 
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Quote Originally Posted by TBallgame:

Thanks Odds, I understand that, but what's their resoning behind it?  Maybe nothing I guess, just habit.  Locals I can sort of see, but an OS book even a small one??   I use Heritage a lot & love it.  BTW just played Mo. @ 32,  BOL to us!!!!
A question that I truly don't have the answer to in relation to the off shore books. As far as locals go, the ones I talk to on a daily basis, well a couple of them seriously believe that they can be beat on these games while the others just honestly don't want to fiddle with too many games. College basketball is one of the hardest sports to keep up on for any bookmaker. The line moves are just crazy sometimes. And they continue to be on a daily basis. I used to run a small book while my wife went through college back in 2000-2003 and I only offered limited games. It was just better financially for me because, 1.) I was small time then & 2.) Giving clients a shorter list of games to wager on always favors the bookmaker.


 
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Posted: #18
good luck today odds
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:

Adding:

Missouri -33 for 20 units... Mizzo is going to put up a big number on a very bad team today. It's that simple in relation to this wager. No need for me to dig any deeper than understanding whats both of these teams are capable of. Mizzo is capable of making a deep run this year as William & Mary has seemed to regress from just a 9 win team last year against D-1 teams. This play is not as square as it seems and that's a good thing IMO...
I'm close to pulling the trigger on this myself. W&M has not been able to handle pressure for two years and that's all they'll see today. Of course, W&M will try to control the tempo but, as I just mentioned, they simply don't have the guard play to do so. Then, their #1 weapon offensively is the 3-pt shot but Ga. St. completely took that away from them....if Ga. St. can do it, I'm thinking it's reasonable to assume Mizzou can do it as well. This not a good matchup at all for the Tribe. 
 
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Posted: #20
Odds,

Other than the Seattle Under 35, you got any other NFL plays?




 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by mp5070:

Odds,

Other than the Seattle Under 35, you got any other NFL plays?




Not as of yet. So far just them but this would be my lean list.

Lions -1
Browns@Cards under 37.5
Philly -3
Tebow (All I do is win) +9

May add one or 2 of these later as they are later games...
 
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Posted: #22
How do you feel about Missouri first half Odds?


 
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Posted: #23
I too played Bears U35-, Bills U 41-, AZ U 38-, hook $$!  BOL  How the hell are the Rams going to score over 10??
 
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Posted: #24
It's Mizzou -19 FH, I think I like FH TT o43 better
 
 
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Posted: #25
be careful bro missouri has illinois on deck...might be looking ahead...their is real no incentive for the tigers to roll the tribe
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