Posted: 2/21/2019 5:37:35 PM
Because I see this match as a tossup Nacional parking the bus I have to go with any team +.5 or +.25, and a little on the TIE and a bit less on 0-0. If the total was 2.5 I'd be making no bets - but it's 1.75 the home team being a scoring machine.
Nacional should lose the TOP stat. Nacional should only attack on a very safe, forward counter. The rest of the time playing behind the ball, going for a tie and then bring it home. I said in another thread Alvarez is a mediocre coach but has some better players than Nacional. Nacional's issue is with their new coach and the team is still trying to play into his system. Player turnover on Nacional is something that has plagued them for years, such a revolving door. Barcos just coming in for this season from Argentina is great but a streaky player this season so far. As most forwards his D is lower than the average forward. He's old. But man sometimes he takes an awesome shot or passes it off, not a selfish player, knows where the open man is that has a better shot.
For as confused as I am about this match Nacional and Libertad are both probably just as confused. The game plan (for both teams) might just change on the fly. The next game will be easier to handicap as there will be more certainties due to familiarity.
So as stated above and because Nacional does not look as good as Libertad the previous 2 rounds the line is adjusted as such so gun to my head I would take the half or quarter goal for less money to be made than the tie and play it safe.
3U is a standard/average bet for me so:
NACIONAL +.25 -120 2U
TIE +195 1.5U
Interesting is that the "final score 0-0" is +425 and "first team to score - none" is +500
First team to score - none +500 1U
I'm mostly playing for interest and also due to the fact that Nacional knows how to win ugly on the road (score and park the bus). A 1-0 is the same as a 4-0 win so this line might just be too over adjusted (Libertad's lsat win 4-0). Last match Nacional at home totally dominated and had a huge TOP and scoring chances advantage - but the opponent was weaker.
But don't tail me. Libertad is banging on all cylinders right now.