Posted: 2/19/2019 1:41:14 PM
Lyon/Barcelona - Barcas tendencies on roadies in the KO round: retain/win posession with 7-800 passes, put up 3-4 shots. winning doesnt seem to be a requirement, nor their priority. Sure, they did beat Tottenham earlier in the year but have pretty much played it safe on the road. Lyon have already beaten table leaders in EPL/Ligue I City & PSG so they are not going to be intimidated here & expect to see a confident 200% effort on their part; so its hard to merely disregard them; and with Barcas shaky backline they should at least get a few good chances. not sure if thats going to be enough though. and if can keep things tight late, might be able to snatch a w as Barca plays 'keep away'.
two things im not thrilled about though collide head-on:
1) betting against Lionel, especially when he hasnt gotten past the Qtrs 3 straight years. the man has got an axe to grind.
2) backing juiced road favorites in the KO rounds. this is typically a big 'no-no' for me at this juncture of the tourney. tho City & Pool blew that into the ocean last year. so perhaps the times/coaching philosophies have started to change as Ive noticed teams have really been putting the effort to grab that away goal. the past few years the visiting team has scored in 15 of the 20 matches, yet had won just 7 times.
sticking with Lyon +1/2 @+110 since im not fond of road and lets toss some on the outright @+360
Copa Lib: 1st leg: time to get out the small hammer.
Melgar(Per)/Caracas(Ven) - Melgar is the much stronger side I think. they upset one of the better Chilean teams last round, but more so in how they played. and this is another 'altitude' environment, tho not in the heavens like Bolivia clubs, 7-8000 feet is nothing to sneeze at. Caracas? they managed just 2 shots on target through 2 matches, 15-2 corners, lost the posession battle BOTH times by a WIDE margin, scored just once & yet still advanced cuz of the away goal. chr*st. near the final 10 minutes of in that 2nd leg they had 10 men in the penalty box (at home too) protecting their away goal advantage as Delfin was bombing away. their luck, and breath, runs out here. at worst, this should be a push so putting a little more on this one.
Melgar -1 @-105
working on tmrws card. no way in h*ll am i having time tmrw.
GL to all