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Tuesday plays......

Forum: Soccer
Author: [Soccer] Topic: Tuesday plays......
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/19/2019 2:04:37 AM
back in min....
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/19/2019 2:19:00 AM
Asia CL: a few early starts today.  the class difference is pretty wide in a few of these matchups and hoping to get the week started nicely.
China/Japan/Korea clubs, as expected, have pretty much clobbered all their opponents in this last phase prior to group stages; 10-1-1 with a 35/5 goal advantage the past 3 years:
4-teamer @+203 (Shandong, Hiroshima, Kashima, Ulsan)
and lets parlay the 2.5 @+720 for fun. 

Ulsan/Perak over 1.5 @-110 (1st half) 
Ulsan/Perak over 3.5 @-111
Ulsan -2.5 @-105
Luneng -1.5 @evens, Luneng/HaNoi over 3.5 @+150, over 4.5 @+340
Nassr/AGMK over 2.5 @-120 

UPSET possibility:
friend says there might be an upset in the making as Chiangrai is a lot better than people think & the line indicates. last year they waltzed into Shanghai (a chinese squad with Hulk & Oscar amongst others on their roster whom ended up winning their league title last year) and tho the Thai squad was dominated in posession held firm and lost 0-1. their opponent (Sanfrecce) came in 3rd in Japan; I personally rate china =/slightly higher than japan so his comment might hold some water. and this Thai team is filled with players whom just got back from the Asian Cup where they made it to the KO's losing to China 2-1 (a match which they actually had the lead.)  so ill throw a small amt on Chiangrai to advance @+400 tho have parlay, threw a small amt on this for fun

back much later. 

GL to all 
monkeebooger PM monkeebooger
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Posted: 2/19/2019 10:34:25 AM
Amazing calls man
yorosan PM yorosan
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Posted: 2/19/2019 10:38:25 AM

Great calls !!! Spec

Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/19/2019 11:48:32 AM

Is it just me, or do these Asian CL games look waaay too offensive-minded, more like a World Friendly? No 0-0 HT scores there...Wish I had parlayed overs, guessing the mindset.

Striker14 PM Striker14
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Posted: 2/19/2019 12:18:49 PM
spec 
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/19/2019 12:59:36 PM
monk, yoro, striker  - appreciate it. doesnt always work out like ya ya know. 
circus  the class difference in asia is really steep, the 3 big leagues have deeper pockets, federations whom back their clubs, and best players. i just dont touch those leagues for reasons i dont want to discuss and would sound a tad bit too hypocritical since i put up serie  C stuff. 
i havent really been paying attention but, have you SEEN the money some of those chinese clubs been tossing around lately?    (the Asian Gadzillions)  european style.  cazzo!!!    if you ever wonder where a player 'disappeared' to,   start with those chinese clubs.
regarding your comment, i just think perhaps it was due to the single game format. once a goal is scored one team freaks out and things go sideways. 

nice start to the week with a big cushion:
Ulsan/Perak over 1.5 @-110 (1st half) Ulsan/Perak over 3.5 @-111 (L, W)
Ulsan -2.5 @-105 (W)
Luneng -1.5 @evens, Luneng/HaNoi over 3.5 @+150, over 4.5 @+340 (W, W, W)
Nassr/AGMK over 2.5 @-120 (W)
Chiangrai to advance @+400. (L)

not taking any credit for Chiang, i actually lost that +400 and the result blew up both the parlays.  but just spoke with buddy and told him that was one h*ll of a call (he had the +1/2). 0-0 and lost on PK's? 

get the UCL up in a bit.
NYG991 PM NYG991
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Posted: 2/19/2019 1:18:56 PM

Interested to see your champions plays 

NYG991 PM NYG991
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Posted: 2/19/2019 1:19:40 PM

I don’t fancy the celestial leagues 

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/19/2019 1:34:23 PM
NYG 

UCL: after a nice morning, not going crazy this week; 2nd legs tend to offer better situations. 
applicable future: Munich over 20.5 total goals.   need 6 more. one of my reasonings was if you check back in previous years youll notice Munichs MO is to always go all out in the first leg, theyve scored a load in these first rounders.  won their Group like i hoped/expected and then get drawn with these guys?  cazzo!!!  

aside from my guys tmrw, this is probably the one im looking forward to watching the most. simply because i honestly dont know what to expect tonight. 
Pool/Munich - I liked Munich in this spot..... last years versions (laughing). two teams whom have flip-flopped identities it seems.  in CL's im an 'MO' follower; teams, and especially the coaches whom are creatures of habit, always seem fall back on past 'habits' which has proven them successful. which is why i toss out domestic seasons. so this is going to be really interesting; or am i the only one to notice Pool has gotten more cleansheets already this year before winter break than they did all of last year. dont know exactly what happened - ill leave that to the experts whom follow the team better than I; but apparently looks like Klopp learned his lessons and stopped getting into track meets with everyone. and if theres one coach whom "knows" Munich, its him. but Im not writing off Munich either, theyve played like cr*p at times this year. but this is a seasoned, veteran-led team whom have been together for a freaking long time (they might be slower, older, and played dis-attached at times but its one variable Ive always put a lot of weight on) and theyve collectively won practically every trophy available (world cups included) and are in the twilight of their careers. so i kind of give them a "pass" if theyve been looking ahead or gotten 'bored' or whatever.   yes, it's Pool they are playing; but like Juventus, im pretty sure Pool wasnt all too thrilled at this pairing they got either. 
Munich always goes for the away goal.... always. even if it comes at the expense of opening it up in the back. which is kind of scary because, like Pool theyve flipped their identity this season a little, almost ceded as many goals before break than all of last year too.  going back 3-4 years these guys have banged in 2+ in 8 straight roadies in the Knockout stages. thats a modus operandi. (and these werent 'creampuffs' either,  Sevilla, Juve, Real, Arsenal etc).  on the other side, Pool has destroyed everyone at home and there is no way Klopp is going to be satisfied with a draw - or even a narrow win heading back to Munich.  not when youve lost 5 straight roadies. games where he tried to get cute and play behind the ball. 
my gut feeling is Klopp goes back to being Klopp as Munich is "special" to him, 'Pool being 'Pool and goes for their throats, and Bayern will be more than happy to oblige.     or this could just end up being a 0-0 clunker. all i know is there might be some white strands of hair on them but those Germans have pride and arent going to roll over.  gonna be learning a LOT about that 2nd leg once this one is done. in meantime.....
Pool/Munich over 3.5 @+150
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/19/2019 1:41:14 PM
Lyon/Barcelona - Barcas tendencies on roadies in the KO round: retain/win posession with 7-800 passes, put up 3-4 shots. winning doesnt seem to be a requirement, nor their priority. Sure, they did beat Tottenham earlier in the year but have pretty much played it safe on the road.  Lyon have already beaten table leaders in EPL/Ligue I City & PSG so they are not going to be intimidated here & expect to see a confident 200% effort on their part; so its hard to merely disregard them; and with Barcas shaky backline they should at least get a few good chances. not sure if thats going to be enough though. and if can keep things tight late, might be able to snatch a w as Barca plays 'keep away'.
two things im not thrilled about though collide head-on:
1) betting against Lionel, especially when he hasnt gotten past the Qtrs 3 straight years. the man has got an axe to grind.
2) backing juiced road favorites in the KO rounds. this is typically a big 'no-no' for me at this juncture of the tourney. tho City & Pool blew that into the ocean last year. so perhaps the times/coaching philosophies have started to change as Ive noticed teams have really been putting the effort to grab that away goal.   the past few years the visiting team has scored in 15 of the 20 matches, yet had won just 7 times. 
sticking with Lyon +1/2 @+110   since im not fond of road  and lets toss some on the outright @+360

Copa Lib: 1st leg: time to get out the small hammer.
Melgar(Per)/Caracas(Ven) - Melgar is the much stronger side I think. they upset one of the better Chilean teams last round, but more so in how they played. and this is another 'altitude' environment, tho not in the heavens like Bolivia clubs, 7-8000 feet is nothing to sneeze at.  Caracas? they managed just 2 shots on target through 2 matches, 15-2 corners, lost the posession battle BOTH times by a WIDE margin, scored just once &  yet still advanced cuz of the away goal. chr*st. near the final 10 minutes of in that 2nd leg they had 10 men in the penalty box (at home too) protecting their away goal advantage as Delfin was bombing away. their luck, and breath, runs out here. at worst, this should be a push so putting a little more on this one. 
Melgar -1 @-105

working on tmrws card. no way in h*ll am i having time tmrw.

GL to all
yorosan PM yorosan
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Posted: 2/19/2019 1:47:30 PM

GL spec

will just enjoy the matches tonight and may pound in Madrid/your team under 2 goal tomorrow

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/20/2019 3:04:54 AM
yoro,    tonight??  

goose eggs?  didnt see that one coming but nabbed the Lyon HC and got the biggie with Lib so another good day 

Pool/Munich over 3.5 @+150 (L)
Lyon +1/2 @+110, outright @360 (W, L)
Melgar -1 @-105 (W)

just watched highlights, that Lib game reminded me those teams down there dont have adequate drainage systems.  the ball literally stopped once it hit that small pond down there on the left side of the pitch 
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