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Wednesday plays......UCL/Europa/WC

Forum: Soccer
Author: [Soccer] Topic: Wednesday plays......UCL/Europa/WC
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 7/11/2018 9:47:38 AM
in a time crunch & an early start, so just putting this one up quickly as it's starting soon:

UCL: similar to yesterday. just see a lot of value in some of these matchups as the skill discrepency is wide.

Astana + over 2.5 @-120
Astana/Sutjeska over 3.5 @+150

back later with the other CL/Europa/WC

gl to all
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 7/11/2018 11:57:54 AM
Astana match was funny; bus-parking galore. practically a semi-circle around the goalie.  0 corners, 0 shots on target. ehh, such is the risk. 

UCL:
Crvena zvezda + over 2.5 @-110 - Serbs dont do well when theyre heavy favs & love backing them when they're the 'dogs but the fact the weaker home side here apparently play an attacking style plays right into their hands. Latvians get introduced to the art of 'flare targeting'. 

Ludgorets/Crusaders 1st half over 1.5 @-120 - Bulgarians about 3-4 levels higher than N. Ireland here; they made it to the CL group stages not too long ago & failed last year due to an away goal. too strong of a team here whom are expected to reach CL groups yet again. 

Valur/Rosenborg BTTS @-125 - never love lost when these two countries meet (Iceland/Norway) and both fairly attack minded. Rosenborg will go for the away goal, and Valur try to head to the 2nd leg with an advantage. 

Europa:
Molde -1 HT @-101, Glen/Molde over 1.5 1st half @+114 - tho they are the home side, this N. Ireland squad been throttled at this juncture every time they get to play in europe comps. and their season hasnt even started yet. Norwegians in the middle of their domestic season & fighting for the title too; rested a bunch of players last week for this match.  the gap in quality is simply too big to pass this up. 

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 7/11/2018 12:50:37 PM
WC: 
 
Croatia/England - Croats have 7 players picking up paychecks from Serie A; so in a way, will kinda look like an EPL/Serie A battle. 
been behind this Croat team from the onset and theyve paid off handsomely along the way; the ONLY reason I didnt choose them for a deep run was too big of a question mark concerning their weak bench and yellows/injuries.   yet here they are.

If you like Croatia:
1) MYTH:    Fatigue - this is just another one of those things ppl like to use to support whatever side they are on --- at their convenience --- whenever it arises.  this is the WC Semis - fatigue is a non-issue.  and I'll just use a few recent examples:
a) 4 years ago that German team went thru 120 minutes to get past Algeria. and then had a tough, tough Qtr match vs France. 4 days later the get a younger, Neymar-less Brazilian team in the heat/humidity of Sambas own backyard in Rio for godsakes. where everyone expected Brazil to still run circles around them (line held firm did it not?) expecting the Germans to wilter under the temps.......touchdown!!!!!!!
b) 8 years ago Uruguay taken to penalties by Ghana and 4 days later a massive underdog, get a super-strong, tourney fav Holland team in the heat of South Africa minus a suspended Chompers were expected to fold, well, they played Netherlands right down to the end before losing 3-2.
Fatigue is a load of bullsh*t. these top players are some of the fittest on the planet, and Croats dont really play that style which expends needless energy. 
2) and dont talk about FIFA wanting Lions/Les Bleus.  created by people whom have zero knowledge of the sport and dont understand the mindset of european futbol. FIFA gives two (bleeps) whom makes the finals. with FIFA, its the piggybank which matters. 
3) "Croatia hasnt beaten anybody".  ummm,  whom exactly has England beaten to get here. (not taking anything away from them so dont misinterpret this). if people going to use that reasoning just remember its a two-sided issue. 

Lions are a young team. for me, i tend to shy away from young squads, and in the semis of the WC?  ya just never know whats going on "upstairs".  and when you look across the field, that Croatian team is experienced and that core unit has been together a long long time. and they also have the best player on the field, Modric. 


specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 7/11/2018 12:54:39 PM
got cut off....
If you like the Lions:
1) from a neutral, and from afar; SOMETHING just feels different about this team from years past. those "little" things are there which I hadnt seen from years past. 
a) little (to none) between-game drama. which is absolutely amazing when you take into account the British media whom are some of the most unforgiving humans on this planet. everyone knew their roles, Southgate smart in naming roster early and put that 'drama' to bed quickly. 
2) youth. a double edged sword, they might be able to recover quickly, and theyre playing with confidence. everyone seems to understand their role. the ENTIRE 23 man roster picks up paychecks from the EPL, and you dont play in the EPL unless you have skill;its not a 'little-sisters-of-the-poor' league.  just because nobody has heard about them outside of Britain doesnt mean they arent good. 
3) Croats centre back Vida.  yeah he got them the lead in xtra time the other day. but dont be fooled. he hasnt had a brainfart yet in this WC.  man is overdue.
4) that 3-5-2 formation just might stifle & pin back Croatia deep. Croats dont have the blazing speed up front and it would not suprise me to see Lions defenders with their heels parked at midfield. Croats love the 'build-up' and seek out their 2 superstars to start their offense.  which brings me to this.... 

Modric. at the onset of this tourney mentioned that he was one of the most irreplaceable players for his country than almost anyone else.  perhaps Southgate should ditch the 5 man middle and just assign someone to mark him relentlessly (sic Henderson or Trippier on him).  you just cannot allow Modric time to find passing lanes. 

If anyone remembers, the Gauchos setup a similar formation vs Croats; and  Croatia really attacked the flanks.if theres one man on that Lion squad whom MUST have a good game, in my mind its Maguire back there, Croats almost certainly have their radars locked in to that area of field to attack. which is why I think Southgate might 'tweak' that formation a little. we'll see how the first 20 mins go. 

Final decision:  Croats to advance @+145.    just too hard to pass up as the 'EPL bias' of being televised weekly & everyone + their mother hammering the books in Britain. though I dont base plays solely on historical precedent, I dont totally ignore it either.   
experience trumps youth. 
though I DO must admit this:  it sure would be nice to see the Lions in the finals. 
going to toss some on this for the heck of it.
 
Croatia/England over 2.5 @+166

****the Three Lions may very well win this & advance. but it sure as heck isnt going to be because "FIFA wants them to" OR "England wants it more"   cazzo!!!   IDIOTS
it'll be because theyre the better team today.    
but i just cant pass up the value; nothing more, nothing less.

GL to all (including the mass of Three-Lion fanatics in here) 
yorosan PM yorosan
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Posted: 7/11/2018 1:18:04 PM

Smart choice, if England win and advance , so be it, I still can’t figure out why England is the favorite here

GL spec, few more days to go huh lol

GENERALWIZDOM PM GENERALWIZDOM
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Posted: 7/11/2018 1:28:39 PM
I have futures on all remaining teams so i dont need to play a side here... But seems like England will need to exploit their speed advantage. You dont want to cede possession to this midfield so i expect a press but it wouldnt hurt to try and catch Croatia with a couple counters. Rashford/Sterling/Lingard will need to be HUGE in this game if England is to win. You want to create situations with them running at Croatian back line. Set pieces will be huge as well
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 7/11/2018 1:32:43 PM
yoro    yeah, just a few more . should be a good one.    a friend of mine out there sent me this  "if youre interested in robbing a bank take the next flight out here"    LOL

Britain must be at a standstill. 
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 7/11/2018 1:36:52 PM
General     agreed. i too, feel Lions need to press.  but again, its the semis....... how far does one want to go in doing this. you dont want to fall out of 'shape' and leave areas of the field exposed.   not at this level.   Frances gameplan/strategy yesterday was beautiful. 
all this bs about fifa, fatigue, skill level is just too much sometimes... 
barneybeans PM barneybeans
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Posted: 7/11/2018 1:40:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by specimen24:

got cut off....If you like the Lions:1) from a neutral, and from afar; SOMETHING just feels different about this team from years past. those "little" things are there which I hadnt seen from years past. a) little (to none) between-game drama. which is absolutely amazing when you take into account the British media whom are some of the most unforgiving humans on this planet. everyone knew their roles, Southgate smart in naming roster early and put that 'drama' to bed quickly. 2) youth. a double edged sword, they might be able to recover quickly, and theyre playing with confidence. everyone seems to understand their role. the ENTIRE 23 man roster picks up paychecks from the EPL, and you dont play in the EPL unless you have skill;its not a 'little-sisters-of-the-poor' league.  just because nobody has heard about them outside of Britain doesnt mean they arent good. 3) Croats centre back Vida.  yeah he got them the lead in xtra time the other day. but dont be fooled. he hasnt had a brainfart yet in this WC.  man is overdue.4) that 3-5-2 formation just might stifle & pin back Croatia deep. Croats dont have the blazing speed up front and it would not suprise me to see Lions defenders with their heels parked at midfield. Croats love the 'build-up' and seek out their 2 superstars to start their offense.  which brings me to this.... Modric. at the onset of this tourney mentioned that he was one of the most irreplaceable players for his country than almost anyone else.  perhaps Southgate should ditch the 5 man middle and just assign someone to mark him relentlessly (sic Henderson or Trippier on him).  you just cannot allow Modric time to find passing lanes. If anyone remembers, the Gauchos setup a similar formation vs Croats; and  Croatia really attacked the flanks.if theres one man on that Lion squad whom MUST have a good game, in my mind its Maguire back there, Croats almost certainly have their radars locked in to that area of field to attack. which is why I think Southgate might 'tweak' that formation a little. we'll see how the first 20 mins go. Final decision:  Croats to advance @+145.    just too hard to pass up as the 'EPL bias' of being televised weekly & everyone + their mother hammering the books in Britain. though I dont base plays solely on historical precedent, I dont totally ignore it either.   experience trumps youth. though I DO must admit this:  it sure would be nice to see the Lions in the finals. going to toss some on this for the heck of it. Croatia/England over 2.5 @+166****the Three Lions may very well win this & advance. but it sure as heck isnt going to be because "FIFA wants them to" OR "England wants it more"   cazzo!!!   IDIOTS. it'll be because theyre the better team today.    but i just cant pass up the value; nothing more, nothing less.GL to all (including the mass of Three-Lion fanatics in here)

FIFA already made their money, contracts were signed, rights, deals, endorsements all done and said for. From the first opening match until the end no matter what happens FIFA makes the same $. If interest wanes due to an Iran Morocco final so be it - at that point it is too late for anyone to "get their money back".

 

 

Dogberto PM Dogberto
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Posted: 7/11/2018 1:40:37 PM

BOL Specimen. You seem to be running hot on the Champions league

barneybeans PM barneybeans
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Posted: 7/11/2018 1:42:13 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by yorosan:

Smart choice, if England win and advance , so be it, I still can’t figure out why England is the favorite here GL spec, few more days to go huh lol

Betting money dictates lines and who is favored - period.

 

soccerball BOL Spec, ballsy move on the over.

jdukes0004 PM jdukes0004
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Posted: 7/11/2018 5:45:53 PM
Great Call Specimen on Croatia to advance!!!
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 7/12/2018 11:45:14 AM
'Dog   that was doused a little yesterday
dukes    experience won out.  was happy to see our guy Mand get the winner.   i think theyre still celebrating in Zagreb too, our little brother across the Adriatic finally getting some of the attention they deserve. just 4 mil people, such a small pool to choose from.  geez. 

Barney   aww geez.  NOW look what you did?  got me going....     Barney and dont forget we have the mid-summer, coffer-padding, Intl Champ Cup. so instead of spending some time with their families and "winding down"/rest. they gotta to Timbuktu to appease the masses & tend to their contractual obligations. NOT "theirs" directly, but FIFA's mandates to the clubs (domino effect).
but thats not all Barney, fasten your seatbelts.... FIFA decided that there also isnt enough soccer being played in the fall too. found a few "free" days for the players and 'we just cant have any of that', right?  so here comes the Nations Cup.  never mind the UCL Group stages, the country cups, and that 'trivial' little matter of .... domestic seasons starting........lets cram another meaningless tourney in there to help pay off the fuel bill our fleet of private airplanes. so that our executives can have meetings to devise more money-making schemes & discuss tips of how to hide their money from taxes. 

wont be long now Barney (give it a decade or so) before I have to add a new trend into my database to cover those "3-games-in-4 nights" scenarios.  h*ll,  how about a doubleheader?

i dont like FIFA.  in case you havent noticed.  
(but i DO give them some credit on their stance and work towards racism)

that 'over' shoulda have hit too. cazzo!!!
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