I would have to agree on the ND spread. (ND -4 is what I have)
Trend; In the last ten years Michigan is 5-3 ATS vs the Irish. All three ATS loses at Notre Dame. One ATS win at ND. Michigan not a road warrior.
Patterson's QB rating against quality opponents is dismal at Ole Miss. Harbaugh & company have their work cut out for them. What we could see is more RPO's in this offense and less NFL style drop back passing. Patterson has the mobility for RPO's and even a few QB keepers in the RPO scheme that would keep a D honest. He doesn't have the frame to withstand a lot of pounding so his runs would be limited. Going that direction could really help this offense. I sense they are going this way.
Dan Enos was hired in "an offensive capacity", no official position. Pep Hamilton is/was the QB coach. Really believe Enos was to coach WR's as Michigan had no official WR coach last year, Hamilton was covering both QB's and WR's as passing coordinator. I do not believe losing Enos hurts the QB development as Harbaugh himself, with Hamilton appear to be in charge there.
Notre Dame has a lot of question marks. Josh Adams is gone at RB, as are two offensive linemen and two WR's. Gone too is the D-coordinator Elko. QB Wimbush is a dual threat and Michigan has a history of defensive problems with dual threat QB's. Will they again?
Trend; Notre Dame has not had a back to back 10+ win season since 92-93.
A home game for ND and a dual threat QB along with a "new" QB for Michigan should result in a favored ND.
Other things to consider;
ND offense rated 24th in scoring, 7th in rushing, 103rd in passing last year. This year they have their QB, lose the 1400 yd RB, two OL's to NFL.
ND's defense 31st in scoring, 51st in rushing, and 53rd in passing. Overall 46th. Defense pretty much intact, new D-coordinator promoted from within so no major changes expected.
Michigan offense 91st in scoring, 49th in rushing, 111th in passing last year. Three different QB's used, two injured. They lose OL Mason Cole and must replace both tackle positions. The two top WR's are soph's. Both RB's return with new QB transfer.
Michigan defense #13 in scoring, #18 in rushing, and #1 in pass defense last year. They lose nose tackle Hurst who is replaced by 5-star Solomon. Rest of D intact.
One other thing. Do not make the mistake to compare ND vs MSU to UM vs MSU. The Irish have had MSU's number for some time just as MSU has UM's number.