Another nice day with the Padres
winning the dog bonus 5 & 9 both and the A’s coming through in the last
moment to turn what could have been a very small losing day into a big winner.
All of which is very nice but you guys are a cruel bunch and this evening will
be holding my feet to the fire with “what have you done for me lately?”
It is a
tough life but I am a big boy with broad shoulders that can take the heat. Let’s
get it on.
5 Inning POD
Yankees +130 (Phelps / Price)
I rarely get a chance to play
the Yankees because they are such a public favorite their lines as favorites
are e usually distorted. But today the public mind set is that the Rays own the
Yankees and Price will dominate. It’s baseball, anything can happen, but
because the public feels the way they do the true probability is distorted. Phelps
does not have a reputation yet but looks like a pretty darn good prospect to me
and although Price does deserve his reputation it does not mean he can not
lose. What I do know is that the Yankees have a much higher offensive
probability and also do not buy into the concept that the Rays “own” them or anyone else. Since there is a 58.6 cent spread
value in favor of the Yankees I think they are the right side to be on.
Full Game Plays
Nationals +100 (Bumgarner / Jackson)
The pitching I will concede
will come out with Bumgarner over Jackson
at any point in the season, but the offenses are incomparable with the Giants
sliding into another recession and the Nats looking very good versus Mr. Lefty
lately. Every little thing makes a difference in the numbers I arrive at and my
current offensive era rating for this matchup reads 3.54 - 6.58. That is enough
to overcome any perceived or rated difference between Bumgarner and Jackson.
Yankees +135 (Phelps / Price)
If we get to Price in the
first 5 why would the full game result be any less likely?
Padres +183 (Marquis / Kennedy)
Sorry, I have to do it. At -195
Kennedy and the D-Backs need a 66.2% probability of a win just to get you to
the point where you can play for a 51 cent profit on your dollar of “investment”.
At +183 the Padres need only a 35.4% win probability and that is well within
reason. Folks increasing their risk via the run line probably don’t realize
the total risk they are already taking and the run line on a home team only increases
the risk (exponentially). It is foolish money management to think that way when you already
face a payback only 27.9% as good as the opponent, but this is Covers so, well,
you know how they think.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100
units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post
Another nice day with the Padres
winning the dog bonus 5 & 9 both and the A’s coming through in the last
moment to turn what could have been a very small losing day into a big winner.
All of which is very nice but you guys are a cruel bunch and this evening will
be holding my feet to the fire with “what have you done for me lately?”
It is a
tough life but I am a big boy with broad shoulders that can take the heat. Let’s
get it on.
5 Inning POD
Yankees +130 (Phelps / Price)
I rarely get a chance to play
the Yankees because they are such a public favorite their lines as favorites
are e usually distorted. But today the public mind set is that the Rays own the
Yankees and Price will dominate. It’s baseball, anything can happen, but
because the public feels the way they do the true probability is distorted. Phelps
does not have a reputation yet but looks like a pretty darn good prospect to me
and although Price does deserve his reputation it does not mean he can not
lose. What I do know is that the Yankees have a much higher offensive
probability and also do not buy into the concept that the Rays “own” them or anyone else. Since there is a 58.6 cent spread
value in favor of the Yankees I think they are the right side to be on.
Full Game Plays
Nationals +100 (Bumgarner / Jackson)
The pitching I will concede
will come out with Bumgarner over Jackson
at any point in the season, but the offenses are incomparable with the Giants
sliding into another recession and the Nats looking very good versus Mr. Lefty
lately. Every little thing makes a difference in the numbers I arrive at and my
current offensive era rating for this matchup reads 3.54 - 6.58. That is enough
to overcome any perceived or rated difference between Bumgarner and Jackson.
Yankees +135 (Phelps / Price)
If we get to Price in the
first 5 why would the full game result be any less likely?
Padres +183 (Marquis / Kennedy)
Sorry, I have to do it. At -195
Kennedy and the D-Backs need a 66.2% probability of a win just to get you to
the point where you can play for a 51 cent profit on your dollar of “investment”.
At +183 the Padres need only a 35.4% win probability and that is well within
reason. Folks increasing their risk via the run line probably don’t realize
the total risk they are already taking and the run line on a home team only increases
the risk (exponentially). It is foolish money management to think that way when you already
face a payback only 27.9% as good as the opponent, but this is Covers so, well,
you know how they think.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100
units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post
Godd luck. I am on Washington as well. I am really getting tired of losing behind in every game early. Seems to bea reoccurring theme this week. Best of luck.
Godd luck. I am on Washington as well. I am really getting tired of losing behind in every game early. Seems to bea reoccurring theme this week. Best of luck.
The Padres are playing good baseball for a change. They look even better at +1 1/2 -120 on the road. They're only hitting @ .200 against Kennedy, but Kennedy's not as sharp this season. I like your angle on this game.
Not too crazy about the other picks. Went with San Fran and don't like the Yanks against Tampa. The Rays always overachieve against the Yanks and they have an edge in pitching, home field and manager. They have a better pen too. I don't bet on or against the Yankees but would lean to the Rays in this matchup.
Good luck with your selections, Key. Happy 4th. Really enjoy reading your threads and getting your insight.
The Padres are playing good baseball for a change. They look even better at +1 1/2 -120 on the road. They're only hitting @ .200 against Kennedy, but Kennedy's not as sharp this season. I like your angle on this game.
Not too crazy about the other picks. Went with San Fran and don't like the Yanks against Tampa. The Rays always overachieve against the Yanks and they have an edge in pitching, home field and manager. They have a better pen too. I don't bet on or against the Yankees but would lean to the Rays in this matchup.
Good luck with your selections, Key. Happy 4th. Really enjoy reading your threads and getting your insight.
Sorry, I have to do it. At -195
Kennedy and the D-Backs need a 66.2% probability of a win just to get you to
the point where you can play for a 51 cent profit on your dollar of “investment”.
At +183 the Padres need only a 35.4% win probability and that is well within
reason. Folks increasing their risk via the run line probably don’t realize
the total risk they are already taking and the run line on a home team only increases
the risk (exponentially). It is foolish money management to think that way when you already
face a payback only 27.9% as good as the opponent, but this is Covers so, well,
you know how they think.
8 home teams covered the run line yesterday. Nothing foolish about that.
Kennedy is 6-0 with a 1.95 ERA lifetime against SD. Marquis is 2-7 with a 4.2 ERA lifetime against AZ, and his away ERA this year is 6.84. The home crowd will want fireworks. I'm on AZ -1.5. I'm your fool. Let's dance.
Sorry, I have to do it. At -195
Kennedy and the D-Backs need a 66.2% probability of a win just to get you to
the point where you can play for a 51 cent profit on your dollar of “investment”.
At +183 the Padres need only a 35.4% win probability and that is well within
reason. Folks increasing their risk via the run line probably don’t realize
the total risk they are already taking and the run line on a home team only increases
the risk (exponentially). It is foolish money management to think that way when you already
face a payback only 27.9% as good as the opponent, but this is Covers so, well,
you know how they think.
8 home teams covered the run line yesterday. Nothing foolish about that.
Kennedy is 6-0 with a 1.95 ERA lifetime against SD. Marquis is 2-7 with a 4.2 ERA lifetime against AZ, and his away ERA this year is 6.84. The home crowd will want fireworks. I'm on AZ -1.5. I'm your fool. Let's dance.
Adding.............. Athletics -115 (Cook / Griffin) The pitching change totally changes the dynamics of this game. Now the naysayers can come back and tell me the Red Sox won't get swept, and they may be right, noone knows, but I think they do. Inside the box thinking gets you inside the box results and most folks are inside the box thinkers and don't win diddly, no matter how much they go on forums and agree with each other, complete with pats on the back. Cook's big win at Seattle was, well, Seattle, not the A's, and there is no similarity in offensive might at all. Griffin (so far) looks like the real deal, Cook comes back to earth.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Adding.............. Athletics -115 (Cook / Griffin) The pitching change totally changes the dynamics of this game. Now the naysayers can come back and tell me the Red Sox won't get swept, and they may be right, noone knows, but I think they do. Inside the box thinking gets you inside the box results and most folks are inside the box thinkers and don't win diddly, no matter how much they go on forums and agree with each other, complete with pats on the back. Cook's big win at Seattle was, well, Seattle, not the A's, and there is no similarity in offensive might at all. Griffin (so far) looks like the real deal, Cook comes back to earth.
With you on A's and Yanks. If awake would have had Washington. No chance I play Padres, Ump since 2009 is 19-4 for 180 or higher home chalk. Major homer. GL
With you on A's and Yanks. If awake would have had Washington. No chance I play Padres, Ump since 2009 is 19-4 for 180 or higher home chalk. Major homer. GL
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