Hey guys I think it would be a great idea to get a thread together compiling some pitchers' names who we believe could be under or over valued early in the season. Even suggestions for Pitchers to fade is always a good one.
I'll get the ball rolling with who I feel may be the most under valued pitcher early in the season.
Under Valued: Henderson Alvarez - Toronto Blue Jays
I know, I know the first thing you will think is that this is a homer statement, but it honestly isn't. I saw this kid pitch live 4 times late last year and I really think this guy is the real deal. His command is incredible, and he throws a wide variety of pitches, all pretty well. Due to the fact he is young and inexperienced I think he could be severely undervalued early in the season, and I'll be looking to bite on some short lines.
Contribute as many as you would like, it is encouraged. The more information we have here for everyone the more helpful. Thanks and Good luck this baseball season to everyone.
Hey guys I think it would be a great idea to get a thread together compiling some pitchers' names who we believe could be under or over valued early in the season. Even suggestions for Pitchers to fade is always a good one.
I'll get the ball rolling with who I feel may be the most under valued pitcher early in the season.
Under Valued: Henderson Alvarez - Toronto Blue Jays
I know, I know the first thing you will think is that this is a homer statement, but it honestly isn't. I saw this kid pitch live 4 times late last year and I really think this guy is the real deal. His command is incredible, and he throws a wide variety of pitches, all pretty well. Due to the fact he is young and inexperienced I think he could be severely undervalued early in the season, and I'll be looking to bite on some short lines.
Contribute as many as you would like, it is encouraged. The more information we have here for everyone the more helpful. Thanks and Good luck this baseball season to everyone.
Michael Pineda overvalued. Cory Luebke undervalued.
Unfortunately Pineda is backed by the Yankee bats, and Luebke is backed by the Padre bats. Meaning I could be correct in determining their values, but that may not translate to wins.
Michael Pineda overvalued. Cory Luebke undervalued.
Unfortunately Pineda is backed by the Yankee bats, and Luebke is backed by the Padre bats. Meaning I could be correct in determining their values, but that may not translate to wins.
Michael Pineda overvalued. Cory Luebke undervalued.
Couldn't agree about Pineda more Jose. With the dimensions of Yankee stadium, even if Pineda gets more wins then he should, it should also result in a lot of overs with him on the mound. He started off last year great, but regressed big time in the 2nd half after hitters started making adjustments. I think this contract is risky for the Yankees, but I agree that Pineda could very well be overvalued to start the season.
Michael Pineda overvalued. Cory Luebke undervalued.
Couldn't agree about Pineda more Jose. With the dimensions of Yankee stadium, even if Pineda gets more wins then he should, it should also result in a lot of overs with him on the mound. He started off last year great, but regressed big time in the 2nd half after hitters started making adjustments. I think this contract is risky for the Yankees, but I agree that Pineda could very well be overvalued to start the season.
Couldn't agree about Pineda more Jose. With the dimensions of Yankee stadium, even if Pineda gets more wins then he should, it should also result in a lot of overs with him on the mound. He started off last year great, but regressed big time in the 2nd half after hitters started making adjustments. I think this contract is risky for the Yankees, but I agree that Pineda could very well be overvalued to start the season.
Pineda is in a tough spot this year, imo. He will be on a much larger stage, and playing against a much better division. How will he handle the pressure of the NY media? He struggled in the second half last year, as his velocity dipped a bit. Maybe he hit the rookie wall, I don't know. Good point regarding the overs Spartacus. I don't play totals, but I suspect this will be worth tracking.
Couldn't agree about Pineda more Jose. With the dimensions of Yankee stadium, even if Pineda gets more wins then he should, it should also result in a lot of overs with him on the mound. He started off last year great, but regressed big time in the 2nd half after hitters started making adjustments. I think this contract is risky for the Yankees, but I agree that Pineda could very well be overvalued to start the season.
Pineda is in a tough spot this year, imo. He will be on a much larger stage, and playing against a much better division. How will he handle the pressure of the NY media? He struggled in the second half last year, as his velocity dipped a bit. Maybe he hit the rookie wall, I don't know. Good point regarding the overs Spartacus. I don't play totals, but I suspect this will be worth tracking.
I think Doug Fister will win 18 games and his stats will be among the best in the AL.
I really liked this guy before he got traded (when no one knew who he was). The thing is, I don't see him being undervalued at all. I think we will see lines that are basically adjusted to where they should be with Fister. We may even see Fister overvalued at the beginning of the season due in large part to his finish last season.
I think Doug Fister will win 18 games and his stats will be among the best in the AL.
I really liked this guy before he got traded (when no one knew who he was). The thing is, I don't see him being undervalued at all. I think we will see lines that are basically adjusted to where they should be with Fister. We may even see Fister overvalued at the beginning of the season due in large part to his finish last season.
Actually your right, Fister will be juiced all year because of the line up behind him, maybe value will be found betting on Bruce Chen and Dillion Gee, those dudes were $ the 1st half of last year.
Actually your right, Fister will be juiced all year because of the line up behind him, maybe value will be found betting on Bruce Chen and Dillion Gee, those dudes were $ the 1st half of last year.
I really liked this guy before he got traded (when no one knew who he was). The thing is, I don't see him being undervalued at all. I think we will see lines that are basically adjusted to where they should be with Fister. We may even see Fister overvalued at the beginning of the season due in large part to his finish last season.
Absolutely think Fister will be overvalued, rather than undervalued this year. He is not a strikeout pitcher, who relies on control and inducing ground balls. His incredible run with Detroit last year will be hard to duplicate considering his K/9 and BB/9 were career bests over that time frame. Pitching for Detroit might translate to more wins, but his ratios should return to normal. I don't see how he can be undervalued going into this season.
I really liked this guy before he got traded (when no one knew who he was). The thing is, I don't see him being undervalued at all. I think we will see lines that are basically adjusted to where they should be with Fister. We may even see Fister overvalued at the beginning of the season due in large part to his finish last season.
Absolutely think Fister will be overvalued, rather than undervalued this year. He is not a strikeout pitcher, who relies on control and inducing ground balls. His incredible run with Detroit last year will be hard to duplicate considering his K/9 and BB/9 were career bests over that time frame. Pitching for Detroit might translate to more wins, but his ratios should return to normal. I don't see how he can be undervalued going into this season.
Actually your right, Fister will be juiced all year because of the line up behind him, maybe value will be found betting on Bruce Chen and Dillion Gee, those dudes were $ the 1st half of last year.
It also helps to check previous seasons and how they did 1st half or 2nd
half. A lot of pitchers see a big time decrease in production once they
hit the 100+ innings pitched. Finding pitchers to ride before the
decline and then fade during the decline would be interesting as well.
Actually your right, Fister will be juiced all year because of the line up behind him, maybe value will be found betting on Bruce Chen and Dillion Gee, those dudes were $ the 1st half of last year.
It also helps to check previous seasons and how they did 1st half or 2nd
half. A lot of pitchers see a big time decrease in production once they
hit the 100+ innings pitched. Finding pitchers to ride before the
decline and then fade during the decline would be interesting as well.
I really believe that Latos will be undervalued to being the season. As we know, lines are set largely based on public perception. Baseball is more of a public betting sport as not many "sharps" or serious bettors play it such as NBA or NFL. The average bettor will look at the fact he has had a sub .500 record, and actually has piled up the losses over the past 2 seasons. Playing for a small market team like San Diego, having a poor W/L record will result in shortened lines. Now Latos finally has an offense backing him that can average more than 2 runs a game, and actually provide run support. I think we will also see favourable lines when he plays within the division, especially against the Brewers and Cardinals. This one seems like a riskier one, but I think Latos will thrive in an environment where he knows he can allow 2+ runs and still win a game. In San Diego, he would basically have the mindset of having to go out there and allowing no more than 1 run to even give his team a chance to win.
I really believe that Latos will be undervalued to being the season. As we know, lines are set largely based on public perception. Baseball is more of a public betting sport as not many "sharps" or serious bettors play it such as NBA or NFL. The average bettor will look at the fact he has had a sub .500 record, and actually has piled up the losses over the past 2 seasons. Playing for a small market team like San Diego, having a poor W/L record will result in shortened lines. Now Latos finally has an offense backing him that can average more than 2 runs a game, and actually provide run support. I think we will also see favourable lines when he plays within the division, especially against the Brewers and Cardinals. This one seems like a riskier one, but I think Latos will thrive in an environment where he knows he can allow 2+ runs and still win a game. In San Diego, he would basically have the mindset of having to go out there and allowing no more than 1 run to even give his team a chance to win.
Last year a number of rookies had solid starts of the season like dillion Gee above, Philip Humber and Josh Collmenter. Which 1st year starters will make an impact this year either than Matt Moore maybe?
Last year a number of rookies had solid starts of the season like dillion Gee above, Philip Humber and Josh Collmenter. Which 1st year starters will make an impact this year either than Matt Moore maybe?
I really believe that Latos will be undervalued to being the season. As we know, lines are set largely based on public perception. Baseball is more of a public betting sport as not many "sharps" or serious bettors play it such as NBA or NFL. The average bettor will look at the fact he has had a sub .500 record, and actually has piled up the losses over the past 2 seasons. Playing for a small market team like San Diego, having a poor W/L record will result in shortened lines. Now Latos finally has an offense backing him that can average more than 2 runs a game, and actually provide run support. I think we will also see favourable lines when he plays within the division, especially against the Brewers and Cardinals. This one seems like a riskier one, but I think Latos will thrive in an environment where he knows he can allow 2+ runs and still win a game. In San Diego, he would basically have the mindset of having to go out there and allowing no more than 1 run to even give his team a chance to win.
I was actually going to post Latos as being overvalued. Last year was the chance to get behind him, as not many outside of fantasy players, knew he was. This year, he was the biggest free agent signing for a pretty good Cincinnati team. Last year we had to pay to back him, despite pitching for the lowly Padres. Now he is pitching in a bandbox, for a contender. A much smaller park will inflate his numbers, even if just a little. While he will get more run support, he will most likely give up a few more as well.
I don't mean to blow up your spot Spartacus, I just had a completely different opinion regarding Latos. I am enjoying this discussion, as I had every intention of making a thread just like this. I just think we are behind the curve jumping on the Latos bandwagon this year.
I really believe that Latos will be undervalued to being the season. As we know, lines are set largely based on public perception. Baseball is more of a public betting sport as not many "sharps" or serious bettors play it such as NBA or NFL. The average bettor will look at the fact he has had a sub .500 record, and actually has piled up the losses over the past 2 seasons. Playing for a small market team like San Diego, having a poor W/L record will result in shortened lines. Now Latos finally has an offense backing him that can average more than 2 runs a game, and actually provide run support. I think we will also see favourable lines when he plays within the division, especially against the Brewers and Cardinals. This one seems like a riskier one, but I think Latos will thrive in an environment where he knows he can allow 2+ runs and still win a game. In San Diego, he would basically have the mindset of having to go out there and allowing no more than 1 run to even give his team a chance to win.
I was actually going to post Latos as being overvalued. Last year was the chance to get behind him, as not many outside of fantasy players, knew he was. This year, he was the biggest free agent signing for a pretty good Cincinnati team. Last year we had to pay to back him, despite pitching for the lowly Padres. Now he is pitching in a bandbox, for a contender. A much smaller park will inflate his numbers, even if just a little. While he will get more run support, he will most likely give up a few more as well.
I don't mean to blow up your spot Spartacus, I just had a completely different opinion regarding Latos. I am enjoying this discussion, as I had every intention of making a thread just like this. I just think we are behind the curve jumping on the Latos bandwagon this year.
I was actually going to post Latos as being overvalued. Last year was the chance to get behind him, as not many outside of fantasy players, knew he was. This year, he was the biggest free agent signing for a pretty good Cincinnati team. Last year we had to pay to back him, despite pitching for the lowly Padres. Now he is pitching in a bandbox, for a contender. A much smaller park will inflate his numbers, even if just a little. While he will get more run support, he will most likely give up a few more as well.
I don't mean to blow up your spot Spartacus, I just had a completely different opinion regarding Latos. I am enjoying this discussion, as I had every intention of making a thread just like this. I just think we are behind the curve jumping on the Latos bandwagon this year.
Jose you may very well be correct here. That's the whole point of this thread, to see what people think and where we agree/disagree. I just a guy in Latos who has had a shit W/L record who never got much media/tv coverage coming into a division where there are teams the public loves like the Cards and Brewers. I think that when he faces teams within his division their could be value based solely on public perception. This one could very well go both ways, but it's good to see which way people are going on whether they believe they could be over or under valued.
I was actually going to post Latos as being overvalued. Last year was the chance to get behind him, as not many outside of fantasy players, knew he was. This year, he was the biggest free agent signing for a pretty good Cincinnati team. Last year we had to pay to back him, despite pitching for the lowly Padres. Now he is pitching in a bandbox, for a contender. A much smaller park will inflate his numbers, even if just a little. While he will get more run support, he will most likely give up a few more as well.
I don't mean to blow up your spot Spartacus, I just had a completely different opinion regarding Latos. I am enjoying this discussion, as I had every intention of making a thread just like this. I just think we are behind the curve jumping on the Latos bandwagon this year.
Jose you may very well be correct here. That's the whole point of this thread, to see what people think and where we agree/disagree. I just a guy in Latos who has had a shit W/L record who never got much media/tv coverage coming into a division where there are teams the public loves like the Cards and Brewers. I think that when he faces teams within his division their could be value based solely on public perception. This one could very well go both ways, but it's good to see which way people are going on whether they believe they could be over or under valued.
The Reds traded for Latos and gave up Volquez, Yonder Alonso, a catcher and a minor league pitcher I think. It will be interesting how Latos does in a hitters ballpark, he could easily be the ace of the staff, he is a strikeout pitcher.
The Reds traded for Latos and gave up Volquez, Yonder Alonso, a catcher and a minor league pitcher I think. It will be interesting how Latos does in a hitters ballpark, he could easily be the ace of the staff, he is a strikeout pitcher.
Jose you may very well be correct here. That's the whole point of this thread, to see what people think and where we agree/disagree. I just a guy in Latos who has had a shit W/L record who never got much media/tv coverage coming into a division where there are teams the public loves like the Cards and Brewers. I think that when he faces teams within his division their could be value based solely on public perception. This one could very well go both ways, but it's good to see which way people are going on whether they believe they could be over or under valued.
Good stuff Spartacus. Based on his Win/Loss over the past 2 seasons, he very well could be undervalued. San Diego certainly did him no favors with run support. However pitching in Petco Park absolutely helped him statistically. This is where I go a different direction. Pitching in Cincinnati will hurt Latos' stats. He will give up a few more bombs, which will cause his ERA to rise. At the same time, he should get more run support behind the Reds' bats. While he may win more games this year, his stats might see a regression due to the ballpark.
Being that there is a decent chance we see a regression statistically, we might have already seen the cheapest prices to back him. Pitching for a better team, with a better offense, I think would inflate his lines. Thus, he might be overvalued this year. I don't know if that makes sense, but it's where I'm coming from.
Jose you may very well be correct here. That's the whole point of this thread, to see what people think and where we agree/disagree. I just a guy in Latos who has had a shit W/L record who never got much media/tv coverage coming into a division where there are teams the public loves like the Cards and Brewers. I think that when he faces teams within his division their could be value based solely on public perception. This one could very well go both ways, but it's good to see which way people are going on whether they believe they could be over or under valued.
Good stuff Spartacus. Based on his Win/Loss over the past 2 seasons, he very well could be undervalued. San Diego certainly did him no favors with run support. However pitching in Petco Park absolutely helped him statistically. This is where I go a different direction. Pitching in Cincinnati will hurt Latos' stats. He will give up a few more bombs, which will cause his ERA to rise. At the same time, he should get more run support behind the Reds' bats. While he may win more games this year, his stats might see a regression due to the ballpark.
Being that there is a decent chance we see a regression statistically, we might have already seen the cheapest prices to back him. Pitching for a better team, with a better offense, I think would inflate his lines. Thus, he might be overvalued this year. I don't know if that makes sense, but it's where I'm coming from.
It makes sense Jose. Pitcher value is not something that can be determined per-season. It is a situational thing, dependent on all other factors involved in that days game. All pitchers will have value and be overvalued at some point in the season. Latos could be -130 in his first outing and +130 in his second, but whether either line has value is all the other considerations on that given day.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
It makes sense Jose. Pitcher value is not something that can be determined per-season. It is a situational thing, dependent on all other factors involved in that days game. All pitchers will have value and be overvalued at some point in the season. Latos could be -130 in his first outing and +130 in his second, but whether either line has value is all the other considerations on that given day.
It makes sense Jose. Pitcher value is not something that can be determined per-season. It is a situational thing, dependent on all other factors involved in that days game. All pitchers will have value and be overvalued at some point in the season. Latos could be -130 in his first outing and +130 in his second, but whether either line has value is all the other considerations on that given day.
Absolutely Key. The "spot" or "situation" will always determine perceived value. I just feel that from a statistical standpoint, we are getting a lesser Mat Latos, but will be paying more of a premium now because of the team he plays for. Of course this is just a preseason generalization.
It makes sense Jose. Pitcher value is not something that can be determined per-season. It is a situational thing, dependent on all other factors involved in that days game. All pitchers will have value and be overvalued at some point in the season. Latos could be -130 in his first outing and +130 in his second, but whether either line has value is all the other considerations on that given day.
Absolutely Key. The "spot" or "situation" will always determine perceived value. I just feel that from a statistical standpoint, we are getting a lesser Mat Latos, but will be paying more of a premium now because of the team he plays for. Of course this is just a preseason generalization.
With overvalued pitchers, it's easy to throw in CC, or Doc Halladay, or Verlander, and maybe a couple others, who will 7 out of 10 games open up @ -200 or higher.
For me, I will never lay that much juice.
Some good undervalue pitchers - basically anybody on the Oakland A's roster. Since their offense is pathetic 5 days out of the week, there best pitcher (like Cahill the 1st half of the season) would be a +120 dog or more. You also had Gio Gonzales, Brandon McCarthy and even Morosco...
The same with the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres, too. This year, they won't be as undervalued with the addition of Jose Reyes to the Marlins...
This year, I think some overvalued pitchers will be:
* C.J. Wilson
* Yovani Gallardo
* Jair Jurrens
* Brandon Morrow (espically @ home)
This year, I think some undervalued pitchers will be:
With overvalued pitchers, it's easy to throw in CC, or Doc Halladay, or Verlander, and maybe a couple others, who will 7 out of 10 games open up @ -200 or higher.
For me, I will never lay that much juice.
Some good undervalue pitchers - basically anybody on the Oakland A's roster. Since their offense is pathetic 5 days out of the week, there best pitcher (like Cahill the 1st half of the season) would be a +120 dog or more. You also had Gio Gonzales, Brandon McCarthy and even Morosco...
The same with the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres, too. This year, they won't be as undervalued with the addition of Jose Reyes to the Marlins...
This year, I think some overvalued pitchers will be:
* C.J. Wilson
* Yovani Gallardo
* Jair Jurrens
* Brandon Morrow (espically @ home)
This year, I think some undervalued pitchers will be:
I think the Red Sox #4 & #5 starter, whoever they end up being, will be overvalued. Their offense is not as good as they have been recently, especially if Crawford doesn't start the season. If they are favorites on the road in these games I will probably be all over the home dog.
Will also be looking at the same situation with the Phillies. Going against Worley & Blanton when they are favorites anywhere. Without Howard & Utley their offense is much weaker.
I think the Red Sox #4 & #5 starter, whoever they end up being, will be overvalued. Their offense is not as good as they have been recently, especially if Crawford doesn't start the season. If they are favorites on the road in these games I will probably be all over the home dog.
Will also be looking at the same situation with the Phillies. Going against Worley & Blanton when they are favorites anywhere. Without Howard & Utley their offense is much weaker.
Well said, GiLmo, but if the Yankees and Phillies win 70% of Sabathia, Halladay starts they can lay up to -200 and still be the "value" side. Value is where you find it and not just a matter of low negative numbers on favorites or high bonus numbers on dogs.
BOL to you this season.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Well said, GiLmo, but if the Yankees and Phillies win 70% of Sabathia, Halladay starts they can lay up to -200 and still be the "value" side. Value is where you find it and not just a matter of low negative numbers on favorites or high bonus numbers on dogs.
I figure games with the #4 and #5 Sox starters will be possible over plays, they don't need Crawford to put up runs, his signing was a mistake and will likely bat 6th when he's in the lineup.
I figure games with the #4 and #5 Sox starters will be possible over plays, they don't need Crawford to put up runs, his signing was a mistake and will likely bat 6th when he's in the lineup.
Well said, GiLmo, but if the Yankees and Phillies win 70% of Sabathia, Halladay starts they can lay up to -200 and still be the "value" side. Value is where you find it and not just a matter of low negative numbers on favorites or high bonus numbers on dogs.
BOL to you this season.
Key
Looking forward to great MLB '12 season with all the fellas... and the 5inning Discussion thread, too.
Towards the end of last year, I started getting more involved with 5inning plays. I'd say it was a chop/chop situation. But when submitting my package plays, I always look for what team will jump out to a quick lead, or what pitcher will be more dominant the first half of the game. I mean, it sounds expected for playing first 5inning wagers... but that's the mindstate you should be in if you're looking to invest for a 1st Half win, in any sport, of course.
Well said, GiLmo, but if the Yankees and Phillies win 70% of Sabathia, Halladay starts they can lay up to -200 and still be the "value" side. Value is where you find it and not just a matter of low negative numbers on favorites or high bonus numbers on dogs.
BOL to you this season.
Key
Looking forward to great MLB '12 season with all the fellas... and the 5inning Discussion thread, too.
Towards the end of last year, I started getting more involved with 5inning plays. I'd say it was a chop/chop situation. But when submitting my package plays, I always look for what team will jump out to a quick lead, or what pitcher will be more dominant the first half of the game. I mean, it sounds expected for playing first 5inning wagers... but that's the mindstate you should be in if you're looking to invest for a 1st Half win, in any sport, of course.
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