16 - 8 @ 67% for +7.42 Units
Fri, 04/15
#1: Baltimore Orioles +100
Both Britton and Masterson have had superb starts in the beginning of the season. A couple of factors here that I feel favor the Orioles. First of all, this Cleveland lineup has never seen Britton before. He's a lefty, and Cleveland has a number of lefty hitters at the top of their order (Brantley, Choo, Hafner). In addition, Carlos Santana is a switch hitter, but bats .194 against lefties, compared to .276 against the righties. Baltimore hitters are batting .247 off Masterson with an OBP of .346 and OPS of .717. In his 2 starts against Baltimore last year, Masterson got lit up for 14 hits and 10 ER's in only 10 innings pitched, with 8 BB's and 7 K's. Both of those were losses. Baltimore bats produced 19 hits in the last 2 games, compared to 8 hits for the Indians in the same time-span. I like this matchup for the Orioles tonight.
Last time out, Masterson was spectacular on the mound, going 6.1 innings, allowing only 4 hits, 1 ER with 1 BB and 9 K's. But he threw 111 pitches in the process. That's a lot of pitches of him, and he's been unsuccessful last year in outings following a game with a high pitch count. In 9 games after he threw 109+ pitches in a previous one, his team went 2-7, with Masterson averaging 5.5 innings, 7.2 hits, 5 ER's, and 1 to 1 K/BB ratio. In those 49 total innings he allowed 65 hits and 44 ER's! I expect these Orioles bats to get to him tonight.
#2: New York Yankees -127
Anytime I see Yankees at a low price like this at home, I automatically look to 'back' them. Well, tonight is a good spot. Harrison is pitching for the Rangers, and this lefty has had a very nice start to the season. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.67 and a FIP of 3.08 through the first 2 starts. Fact is though, this is a guy that had a 4.48 BB/9 last year and had a K/BB ratio of a measly 1.18. Harrison's BABIP of .162 (extremely lucky) and LOB% of 93% (average is around 70%) confirms that 'regression' might be coming very soon. Well, why not tonight? He's facing a patient Yankees lineup tonight for his first career start in Yankee Stadium. A number of these Yankee hitters have faced him in the past, albeit a couple of years ago. Bronx Bombers are coming off a nice come-from-behind victory last night and have totaled 23 hits in the past 2 games. I expect him to hit well tonight.
Nova is taking the mound for NY and even though he's nothing special, fact is that NY is 7-1 in his last 8 starts. In addition, these Rangers hitters have never faced him before. Even though Nova has an ERA of 6.10 so far this season, his FIP is a solid 3.37, indicating that he's had some bad-luck in his starts, and 'regression' to the positive is to be expected. No Hamilton for the Rangers tonight, and I might just fade this team every game until the finally win one without him. They have a 39% chance (not really but it's fun to think so) of doing so tonight, given the fact that Yankees have won 61% of their games in the past couple of years when facing a left-handed starting pitcher.
#3: Chicago White Sox +118
Oh my god, am I really fading Weaver in this spot?!? Heck yeah I am. This play is a straight 'fade' of Weaver by the way, as Humber is a very average pitcher. I guess the fact that this Angeles lineup has only had 7 AB's off him is a slight advantage but nothing else really stands out about this guy. He has an ERA of 3.38 on the season with a WHIP of 1.25. If he can limit the Angels to 3 or less runs in about 6 innings, we should be OK (even with that Sox bullpen coming in behind him). Either way, here are the factors why this is the play tonight.
As good as Weaver has been this year, he hasn't been as sharp facing the Sox in his 2 starts against them last year. In 13 innings he gave up 15 hits and 7 ER's to them, with 2 HR's. His 15 to 1 K/BB ratio was very impressive in those starts though, but the Sox were able to get timely hits and score some runs off him. There are a number of guys in the lineup that historically have hit Weaver well: Pierzynski 5 for 18 (OBP .350); Pierre 10 for 23 (OBP .480); Teahen 9 for 21 (OBP .435). Sure Konerko and Quentin are 2 for 23 lifetime off him, bur regression works both ways right? In addition, Dunn has never seen him. Either way, all it takes is one swing of the bat for these guys, especially in this ball-park. The key to this play is that Weaver is coming off an outing where he threw 125 pitches. He was exceptional in that game, striking out 15 and only allowing 4 hits (1 ER). To get 15 strike-outs takes a lot of effort and a high pitch count (obviously). In Weaver's 6 year major league career, this is the HIGHEST number of pitches he has thrown in one game. THE HIGHEST! In 2010 he had 2 outings where he threw 120+ pitches. Here was his performance following those games:
After throwing 120 in a game prior: 4.2 innings; 9 hits; 7 ER's; 3 BB and 1 K (Angels lost 8-7)
After throwing 121 in a game prior: 5.0 innings; 6 hits; 6 ER's; 2 BB and 4 K (Angels lost 6-0)
In those 9.2 innings he allowed 15 hits, 13 ER's and had a measly 1 to 1 K/BB ratio. Not to mention his team lost both games. Angles have flown from the West Coast for this one last night so the players might have a bit of a 'jet-lag'. In addition, Ozzie went-off on the team after the bullpen blew another game. He's frustrated, the players are frustrated, and the fans are frustrated -- why not take it out on a guy who threw 125 pitches (highest of his career) in his previous start?