I had a few angles I was excited about that ultimately get pushed to the back burner due to goalies changing up.
I was going to run with STL as a big road dog with the play of Binnington pushing that reasoning, but Jake Allen has been confirmed. I thought about siding with the Blues anyway as Allen’s road/home splits are strangely much better on the road—impressive in fact and he’s beaten Washington this year as well, but I just don’t have the faith in him to back him with any cash.
I was going to go with Toronto over the struggling Avalanche but with the return of Freddy Andersen I’m worried it could go either way as he might be rusty out of the gate which could lead to a potential shoot out.
My other bet, which I locked in last night was the under 6 in CHI/NJD. Thought I had a nice match-up of Delia versus Blackwood here, but Cam Ward has been confirmed in net so giving that more thought.
I’d like to just flat out fade Philly but even I have to give pause with Carter Hart, who stole a win for them last home game and a bet from me. At home his numbers are very good with a .927 and 2.18 so not an auto-fade on home ice.
Waiting on the goalie confirmation in Toronto for Colorado. If its Varlamov I’m probably going to look into the game total or the Toronto team total as he’s been on a nightmare run.
I had a few angles I was excited about that ultimately get pushed to the back burner due to goalies changing up.
I was going to run with STL as a big road dog with the play of Binnington pushing that reasoning, but Jake Allen has been confirmed. I thought about siding with the Blues anyway as Allen’s road/home splits are strangely much better on the road—impressive in fact and he’s beaten Washington this year as well, but I just don’t have the faith in him to back him with any cash.
I was going to go with Toronto over the struggling Avalanche but with the return of Freddy Andersen I’m worried it could go either way as he might be rusty out of the gate which could lead to a potential shoot out.
My other bet, which I locked in last night was the under 6 in CHI/NJD. Thought I had a nice match-up of Delia versus Blackwood here, but Cam Ward has been confirmed in net so giving that more thought.
I’d like to just flat out fade Philly but even I have to give pause with Carter Hart, who stole a win for them last home game and a bet from me. At home his numbers are very good with a .927 and 2.18 so not an auto-fade on home ice.
Waiting on the goalie confirmation in Toronto for Colorado. If its Varlamov I’m probably going to look into the game total or the Toronto team total as he’s been on a nightmare run.
NJD -1/2 +100 The Hawks got swept on their 3-game homestand and gave up 4 goals in each game. They head on the road to Jersey where they get to play a weaker opponent but a red-hot goaltender in Mackenzie Blackwood. Blackwood’s overall numbers are fantastic but at home he’s 3-0 with a .965 Save% and 1.05 GAA. Hawks are starting Cam Ward here, who has done me dirty multiple times this year, but his numbers just stink so I can’t help myself. Neither team inspires confidence and the Devs are missing Taylor Hall, but home team with what I consider at the moment to be a superior goalie advantage is the way to go.
CHI/NJD under 6 -105 This is obviously more because of what Blackwood has done thus far than any real confidence with Cam Ward but the Devils lack any real offensive power, especially while missing Hall, so that coupled with hopefully a continued run of strong net play by Blackwood and I find it difficult to see 7 or more scored here.
TOR TT O 3 ½ -155 I’m 100% not a fan of the high juice here but I feel like the Toronto offense is going to bust out here. They’ve only scored 6 goals in their last 3 games (2.00) but overall they’re the 3 ranked offense in the league at a 3.59 GF clip so the bigger sample size is the truth of what this team can do on the offensive side and the talent level is just too high to be held down for long stretches. At home and wanting to provide their #1 goalie who is back from the IR with some puck support, I expect a solid offensive showing here. It helps immensely that they get to fire frozen rubber at Varlamov who has been nightmarish lately. He only allowed 2 in his last start @Montreal but prior to that he had allowed 3 or more in 8-straight and over his last nine he has just one win and holds an .872 Save% and 3.79 GAA and the numbers get worse on the road as he’s lost his last 4 road starts with an .830 Save% and 5.02 GAA
TOR -1/2 -125 Doing the research on Varlamov’s numbers made me feel I have to side with Toronto here at home. Even a potentially rusty Andersen might not be enough for Colorado to steal this one. Teams have figured out that if you suffocate the Avalanche top line, their secondary scoring is nowhere to be found so that blueprint and a high-powered Leaf offense against a struggling goalie should equal a win for the home team.
NJD -1/2 +100 The Hawks got swept on their 3-game homestand and gave up 4 goals in each game. They head on the road to Jersey where they get to play a weaker opponent but a red-hot goaltender in Mackenzie Blackwood. Blackwood’s overall numbers are fantastic but at home he’s 3-0 with a .965 Save% and 1.05 GAA. Hawks are starting Cam Ward here, who has done me dirty multiple times this year, but his numbers just stink so I can’t help myself. Neither team inspires confidence and the Devs are missing Taylor Hall, but home team with what I consider at the moment to be a superior goalie advantage is the way to go.
CHI/NJD under 6 -105 This is obviously more because of what Blackwood has done thus far than any real confidence with Cam Ward but the Devils lack any real offensive power, especially while missing Hall, so that coupled with hopefully a continued run of strong net play by Blackwood and I find it difficult to see 7 or more scored here.
TOR TT O 3 ½ -155 I’m 100% not a fan of the high juice here but I feel like the Toronto offense is going to bust out here. They’ve only scored 6 goals in their last 3 games (2.00) but overall they’re the 3 ranked offense in the league at a 3.59 GF clip so the bigger sample size is the truth of what this team can do on the offensive side and the talent level is just too high to be held down for long stretches. At home and wanting to provide their #1 goalie who is back from the IR with some puck support, I expect a solid offensive showing here. It helps immensely that they get to fire frozen rubber at Varlamov who has been nightmarish lately. He only allowed 2 in his last start @Montreal but prior to that he had allowed 3 or more in 8-straight and over his last nine he has just one win and holds an .872 Save% and 3.79 GAA and the numbers get worse on the road as he’s lost his last 4 road starts with an .830 Save% and 5.02 GAA
TOR -1/2 -125 Doing the research on Varlamov’s numbers made me feel I have to side with Toronto here at home. Even a potentially rusty Andersen might not be enough for Colorado to steal this one. Teams have figured out that if you suffocate the Avalanche top line, their secondary scoring is nowhere to be found so that blueprint and a high-powered Leaf offense against a struggling goalie should equal a win for the home team.
TB -150 I normally wouldn’t bet against Dallas in Dallas, but Tampa is another beast altogether and the following is why: Tampa lost its last game to the Islanders. They didn’t play poorly as Greiss stopped 38 of 39 shots. Tampa coming off a loss is the betting angle here because as a team the Lightening have only lost 2-straight all season. They’re 9-1 following a loss, outscoring teams 52 (5.20) to 23 (2.30). 7 of those 9 wins have been by 3 or more goals. Vasilevskiy hasn’t personally lost 2-straight all season.
STL/NYI under 6 -120 So, Robin Lehner has been rock-solid for the Islanders this year and his stats jump to a .926 Save% and 1.95 GAA on home ice. The under is 10-3-2 in his last 15 starts which means it has lost only 20% of the time or 80% of the time it has either cashed or pushed. The Blues have played to the under in 5-straight, only allowing 6 goals in that span and Binnington has seen the under hit in all three of his starts thus far. Now let’s talk about him. I didn’t know much about him so checked into some of his recent stats: Last year in the AHL for the Providence Bruins he accumulated a .926 Save% and 2.05 GAA in 28 appearances. This year in 16 appearances for the San Antonio Rampage he has a similar .927 Save% and 2.08 GAA. Now, digger deeper, over his last four starts for San Antonio he only allowed 1, 2, 1 & 0 goals going 4-0 with a .970 Save% and 0.99 GAA. He was then called up by the Blues wherein he’s gone 3-0 while allowing 0, 1 & 1 goals to win each start with a combined .974 Save% and 0.67 GAA. Now to put into perspective this means that over his last 7 starts between the AHL and NHL he has gone 7-0, only allowed more than 1 goal one single game (which was 2 goals), has a compiled Save % of .971 and GAA of 0.85. That’s impressive stuff and it’s a run that has to be backed at this point until the wheels fall off.
STL +135 As an added stat, the Islanders rate as the dead last team in Corsi For which means they create the least opportunities of every team out there. The Blues rate #1 in Corsi Allowed meaning they allow the fewest opportunities against. Just a convergence of two interesting stats. Blues have won 6 of their last 7 on the road and outscored teams 19-9 during that run.
TB -150 I normally wouldn’t bet against Dallas in Dallas, but Tampa is another beast altogether and the following is why: Tampa lost its last game to the Islanders. They didn’t play poorly as Greiss stopped 38 of 39 shots. Tampa coming off a loss is the betting angle here because as a team the Lightening have only lost 2-straight all season. They’re 9-1 following a loss, outscoring teams 52 (5.20) to 23 (2.30). 7 of those 9 wins have been by 3 or more goals. Vasilevskiy hasn’t personally lost 2-straight all season.
STL/NYI under 6 -120 So, Robin Lehner has been rock-solid for the Islanders this year and his stats jump to a .926 Save% and 1.95 GAA on home ice. The under is 10-3-2 in his last 15 starts which means it has lost only 20% of the time or 80% of the time it has either cashed or pushed. The Blues have played to the under in 5-straight, only allowing 6 goals in that span and Binnington has seen the under hit in all three of his starts thus far. Now let’s talk about him. I didn’t know much about him so checked into some of his recent stats: Last year in the AHL for the Providence Bruins he accumulated a .926 Save% and 2.05 GAA in 28 appearances. This year in 16 appearances for the San Antonio Rampage he has a similar .927 Save% and 2.08 GAA. Now, digger deeper, over his last four starts for San Antonio he only allowed 1, 2, 1 & 0 goals going 4-0 with a .970 Save% and 0.99 GAA. He was then called up by the Blues wherein he’s gone 3-0 while allowing 0, 1 & 1 goals to win each start with a combined .974 Save% and 0.67 GAA. Now to put into perspective this means that over his last 7 starts between the AHL and NHL he has gone 7-0, only allowed more than 1 goal one single game (which was 2 goals), has a compiled Save % of .971 and GAA of 0.85. That’s impressive stuff and it’s a run that has to be backed at this point until the wheels fall off.
STL +135 As an added stat, the Islanders rate as the dead last team in Corsi For which means they create the least opportunities of every team out there. The Blues rate #1 in Corsi Allowed meaning they allow the fewest opportunities against. Just a convergence of two interesting stats. Blues have won 6 of their last 7 on the road and outscored teams 19-9 during that run.
CLB -1/2 -140 Devils are coming off a strange game that went the opposite direction from what I expected. A team without much offensive talent and missing their best player ignited for 8 goals and now travel to Columbus where I expect the offense to regress…a lot. Kinkaid is scheduled to get the road start here and outside of Jersey he holds an .891 Save% and 3.41 GAA and in late December he gave up 3 goals on 11 shots in limited action against Columbus. Jackets have won 3-straight overall whereas the Devils are 1-6 playing the second game of a back-to-back.
CLB -1/2 -140 Devils are coming off a strange game that went the opposite direction from what I expected. A team without much offensive talent and missing their best player ignited for 8 goals and now travel to Columbus where I expect the offense to regress…a lot. Kinkaid is scheduled to get the road start here and outside of Jersey he holds an .891 Save% and 3.41 GAA and in late December he gave up 3 goals on 11 shots in limited action against Columbus. Jackets have won 3-straight overall whereas the Devils are 1-6 playing the second game of a back-to-back.
Yo, bahtendahhh... I am coming out of my grieving. I played the Jackets ' cause I was lazy to look into it myself. I saw this post and played it. Columbus, I mean. Thanks for the pretty penny...
I like your style, BTW...
Best of luck, bro... May I call you that? Brother... I mean .
Yo, bahtendahhh... I am coming out of my grieving. I played the Jackets ' cause I was lazy to look into it myself. I saw this post and played it. Columbus, I mean. Thanks for the pretty penny...
I like your style, BTW...
Best of luck, bro... May I call you that? Brother... I mean .
AJMay I was a day late on winning 3 of 4 like you asked, haha
clever4ever
Hotlanta11
Troy123610 Glad it worked out!
Maximus1978
DR25
Thanks, guys. Leans for tonight on OTT +150, CGY -1/2 and VAN -118 but I think ultimately I'm passing tonight as I'm running out the door for work in a bit. Good luck tonight!
AJMay I was a day late on winning 3 of 4 like you asked, haha
clever4ever
Hotlanta11
Troy123610 Glad it worked out!
Maximus1978
DR25
Thanks, guys. Leans for tonight on OTT +150, CGY -1/2 and VAN -118 but I think ultimately I'm passing tonight as I'm running out the door for work in a bit. Good luck tonight!
VAN -118 Markstrom is 10-5 on home ice, is on an overall run of 10-3-1 since the start of December and has beaten Edmonton twice already this season stopping 20 of 22 and then 30 of 32 for a .926 Save% and 2.00 GAA average against them. Edmonton has been wildly inconsistent alternating wins and losses and they come off a nice 7-2 win way out in Buffalo and now fly cross country to Vancouver for a one-and-done roaddie before a long home stand. Koskinen on the road has been very different than the guy on the Oilers home ice—his road stats drop dramatically to an .890 Save% and 3.37 GAA
VAN -118 Markstrom is 10-5 on home ice, is on an overall run of 10-3-1 since the start of December and has beaten Edmonton twice already this season stopping 20 of 22 and then 30 of 32 for a .926 Save% and 2.00 GAA average against them. Edmonton has been wildly inconsistent alternating wins and losses and they come off a nice 7-2 win way out in Buffalo and now fly cross country to Vancouver for a one-and-done roaddie before a long home stand. Koskinen on the road has been very different than the guy on the Oilers home ice—his road stats drop dramatically to an .890 Save% and 3.37 GAA
the write up for Calgary didn't paste through. Here it was:
Calgary is 15-4-4 at the Saddledome and Rittich is undefeated there at 8-0 on home ice this season. The Flames have won 5-straight overall and have scored 23 goals in that span (4.60) and going back further they’ve won 7 of 8 while scoring 40 (5.00) so the offense is clicking and ranks #2 in the league behind Tampa. Sabres have lost 3-straight and given up 16 goals in that stretch (5.33). Since that long winning streak in November the Sabres have only won 6 of 21 games.
the write up for Calgary didn't paste through. Here it was:
Calgary is 15-4-4 at the Saddledome and Rittich is undefeated there at 8-0 on home ice this season. The Flames have won 5-straight overall and have scored 23 goals in that span (4.60) and going back further they’ve won 7 of 8 while scoring 40 (5.00) so the offense is clicking and ranks #2 in the league behind Tampa. Sabres have lost 3-straight and given up 16 goals in that stretch (5.33). Since that long winning streak in November the Sabres have only won 6 of 21 games.
the write up for Calgary didn't paste through. Here it was: Calgary is 15-4-4 at the Saddledome and Rittich is undefeated there at 8-0 on home ice this season. The Flames have won 5-straight overall and have scored 23 goals in that span (4.60) and going back further they’ve won 7 of 8 while scoring 40 (5.00) so the offense is clicking and ranks #2 in the league behind Tampa. Sabres have lost 3-straight and given up 16 goals in that stretch (5.33). Since that long winning streak in November the Sabres have only won 6 of 21 games.
I was almost going to say that the bet should have been CGY TT O 3 1/2 based solely off of what I had written....but that lost also. Flames out shoot Buffalo 33-23, Rittich loses his first on home ice, Sabres snap a 3-game losing streak and Flames end their 5-game winning streak.
the write up for Calgary didn't paste through. Here it was: Calgary is 15-4-4 at the Saddledome and Rittich is undefeated there at 8-0 on home ice this season. The Flames have won 5-straight overall and have scored 23 goals in that span (4.60) and going back further they’ve won 7 of 8 while scoring 40 (5.00) so the offense is clicking and ranks #2 in the league behind Tampa. Sabres have lost 3-straight and given up 16 goals in that stretch (5.33). Since that long winning streak in November the Sabres have only won 6 of 21 games.
I was almost going to say that the bet should have been CGY TT O 3 1/2 based solely off of what I had written....but that lost also. Flames out shoot Buffalo 33-23, Rittich loses his first on home ice, Sabres snap a 3-game losing streak and Flames end their 5-game winning streak.
Leans for tonight on OTT +150, CGY -1/2 and VAN -118 but I think ultimately I'm passing tonight as I'm running out the door for work in a bit. Good luck tonight!
And its the typical loss on the two I played and a win on the one I didn't get in.
Leans for tonight on OTT +150, CGY -1/2 and VAN -118 but I think ultimately I'm passing tonight as I'm running out the door for work in a bit. Good luck tonight!
And its the typical loss on the two I played and a win on the one I didn't get in.
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