Posted: 5/9/2012 2:01:14 PM
Prop Record: 11-5
Mike Conley Over 14 points -125
Let me start off by saying that Conley has been one of the most impressive performers in these playoffs so far. Conley has averaged 17.5 pts and 7.5 assts on 50% shooting through the first 4 games. He has scored 17, 19, 9 and 25 points in the first 4 games which means he is 3-1 against this prop.
I like this prop tonight because of the defensive switch that Lionel Hollins made in game 4:
-Conley guarded Chris Paul in games 1-3 and the Grizz made the decision to put Tony Allen on Paul in game 4. This switch allows Conley to rest more on defense and it showed in his offensive output as Conley had his best game of the series. He scored 25 pts on 67% shooting and played 46 minutes. He had 21 of his points in regulation.
-Allen did a pretty good job on Paul. Paul didn't start going off until they started running the pick and roll at the top of the key with Reggie Evans and the Grizz decided to keep switching which left their big men on an island with Paul. The Grizzlies need to double Paul off of the screen and force Reggie Evans to try and make a play.
Blake Griffin Under 10 Rebounds -150
I played this prop last game and Blake was never close to reaching the total. He finished with 1 rebound in the first half and 5 for the game. He has a total of 9 rebounds in the past 2 games and he is 0-6-1 against this prop this year when facing the Grizz.
My bet will be slightly smaller than last game's in order to adjust for the additional juice.
Sides, Teasers and Parlays
Parlay Miami -11 Grizzlies ML Braves -1.5 +490
Tease Miami -6.5 Hawks +11
Miami -4.5 (to close out the teaser I posted on Monday)
Possible add: I may add the Lebron points prop depending on the line. My book hasn't released it yet, but I expect Lebron to go off tonight.