I'm looking to stay more disciplined the second half of this season. There were a lot of times that I pushed for system plays the first half and while some of them ended in wins, more of them ended in losses. I've had a variance number that I have been telling myself to stick to and I will be abiding by that the rest of the NBA regular season. Good luck to everyone the rest of the way.
FINAL PLAYS:
Indiana vs. Golden State UNDER 201.5 (2 units)
I expect this line to drop throughout the day, considering that Stephen Curry is listed as doubtful. These teams have met once before (January 20) and that ended in a 94-91 Pacers win in Golden State. I look for teams to come out a bit sluggish tonight and perhaps the rest of this week after the long break that most of them had. The only All-Star on either team was Roy Hibbert. I look for that to be a factor because guys like Lebron, Durant & Kobe were all able to stay active and in a basketball state of mind. Yes, I expect everyone to come out REFRESHED, but at least playing every night or every other night before the break allowed teams and shooters to stay in rhythm. Again, IMO, this line will move down during the day (it opened at 202.0 in most places). If you want to make this UNDER play, jump on it now. But as some of you have seen, I'm a terrible judge of future line movement.
I'm looking to stay more disciplined the second half of this season. There were a lot of times that I pushed for system plays the first half and while some of them ended in wins, more of them ended in losses. I've had a variance number that I have been telling myself to stick to and I will be abiding by that the rest of the NBA regular season. Good luck to everyone the rest of the way.
FINAL PLAYS:
Indiana vs. Golden State UNDER 201.5 (2 units)
I expect this line to drop throughout the day, considering that Stephen Curry is listed as doubtful. These teams have met once before (January 20) and that ended in a 94-91 Pacers win in Golden State. I look for teams to come out a bit sluggish tonight and perhaps the rest of this week after the long break that most of them had. The only All-Star on either team was Roy Hibbert. I look for that to be a factor because guys like Lebron, Durant & Kobe were all able to stay active and in a basketball state of mind. Yes, I expect everyone to come out REFRESHED, but at least playing every night or every other night before the break allowed teams and shooters to stay in rhythm. Again, IMO, this line will move down during the day (it opened at 202.0 in most places). If you want to make this UNDER play, jump on it now. But as some of you have seen, I'm a terrible judge of future line movement.
Well, as I oppositely-expected, the line has moved up to 202.5 (at least here on Covers). If anyone has any tips on how to better estimate these moves, I'm all ears. However, my book has taken this game down; I'm assuming it's because of Curry? Perhaps his status has changed. The last I saw he was doubtful, but maybe he's been upgraded (or downgraded). My lines take into account full-strength, so whether Curry plays or not, it makes no difference. If the line goes higher, I may put more on it, similar to Miami/New York right before the break.
Well, as I oppositely-expected, the line has moved up to 202.5 (at least here on Covers). If anyone has any tips on how to better estimate these moves, I'm all ears. However, my book has taken this game down; I'm assuming it's because of Curry? Perhaps his status has changed. The last I saw he was doubtful, but maybe he's been upgraded (or downgraded). My lines take into account full-strength, so whether Curry plays or not, it makes no difference. If the line goes higher, I may put more on it, similar to Miami/New York right before the break.
That's fine. I'm awful at guessing the moves (obviously). If it continues to go up, with or without Curry, I will consider putting an additional play on the higher line.
That's fine. I'm awful at guessing the moves (obviously). If it continues to go up, with or without Curry, I will consider putting an additional play on the higher line.
If you mean Boston ATS, I'm on Cleveland +3.5; there's no reason to think that the break made the Celts a completely different road team than they were in the first half. As far as total, I think the OVER is the way to go (as my numbers suggest). Boston is healthy so the offense should be back to normal, but their defense is suspect on the road. Cleveland isn't afraid of the Celts and should go right at them.
If you mean Boston ATS, I'm on Cleveland +3.5; there's no reason to think that the break made the Celts a completely different road team than they were in the first half. As far as total, I think the OVER is the way to go (as my numbers suggest). Boston is healthy so the offense should be back to normal, but their defense is suspect on the road. Cleveland isn't afraid of the Celts and should go right at them.
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