YTD: 9-5 (+3.5)
Yesterday's thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101262017
Today (2-6-12):
Houston vs. Denver UNDER 207.5
Oklahoma City vs. Portland UNDER 196.5
My plays are based off of calculations only. If the lines that I come up with are a significant number of points (5+) off of the actual line, I will look into it. At that point, I'll look at injuries and things like that. Otherwise, it's just based off of the numbers. I consider several different statistics, both home vs. away and offensive vs. defensive. If the offensive vs. defensive differences between the two teams are different, a certain number of points are added/subtracted from the total I've put together. This is how I get my final numbers.
The lines I have for all other games are as follows (followed by actual lines):
Philadelphia vs. LA Lakers: 177.5 (178)
Washington vs. Toronto: 188 (186.5)
Orlando vs. LA Clippers: 192 (190.5)
New Jersey vs. Chicago: 190 (189)
New York vs. Utah: 195 (194.5)
Atlanta vs. Phoenix: 188 (188)
Memphis vs. San Antonio: 188.5 (185)
I'm still waiting on a line for the New Orleans/Sacramento game, but my system has a total of 191.5; I'll compare that to the actual line and see if it's worth my time looking into any further.
Sorry if this doesn't meet your idea of a "write-up," but do know a lot of preparation is put into these picks.
All I did was come up with a few stats that I feel are meaningful to a game and game's pace. Without disclosing EXACTLY what I do, you'd need to consider things that would cover every aspect of the game: scoring (obviously), but also home vs. away scoring/scoring defense. Also take into account things like turnovers, long range shooting, assists, etc. Remember - one of the most important parts is looking at all of these stats from both sides of the ball. Then when I found the stats that I chose to compare (through trial and error), I was able to find a good numbering system to say "system - add one point to my personal line because Team A's offense is *this much* better than Team B's defense in this category." If you're using Excel, make sure you know how to use "=IF( )" statements (more points are added or taken away based on the discrepency between the two). The last step was to take all of these stats and go back a couple of weeks into the season and find a value convention that may have had predicted these games correctly for a high percentage. I tweaked mine quite a bit before finding one that seemed to have fit over the last couple of weeks and then watched it for a week to see if the winning percentage stayed the same.
It's not an exact science but it has proven successful so far. I hope that helps a little bit. Even re-reading it myself, it still seems like I'm talking in circles (which I don't mean to do). While I'd like to keep my numbering systems and statistics used to myself, I'd be happy to clear up any confusion I've just caused with that (what feels like) giant run-on sentence. ALSO - by no means am I claming to be an expert! I've been able to win a couple of units over the course of a week and wasn't able to go back very far because this system is based on AVERAGES and it wasn't until recently that we were able to get a good read on the averages each team provides, seeing as how not much basketball has been played relative to other seasons.
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