On Thursday, we have a battle of two Western Conference powers San Antonio Silver Stars and Los Angeles Sparks from the Staples Center in downtown Los Angeles.
The Sparks have been assigned an early line of -3 and an over/under line of 139.5
The Silver Stars went 1-2 against the spread in dispatching a game Sacramento squad, while the Sparks went 2-1 ats against the Seattle Storm.
In recent form, the Sparks are playing a little better brand of basketball than the Silver Stars going 8-2 ats overall in their last 10 contests, but that means nothing now as they are set to lay it on the line for a chance to get to the WNBA Finals.
The teams split their season series 2-2 with ats victories with the same mark. The under cashed the ticket 3 out of the 4 contests with average lines of 145. Accordingly the linesmaker has already made an adjustment for the 1st game of this matchup.
Should be interesting.
In the Eastern Conference, the New York Liberty got by the Connecticut Sun with sheer grit and determination going 2-1 straight up and a sparkling 3-0 ats with the under cashing the ticket in all 3 games. The Liberty have had 8 out of their last 10 games go under the total with average lines of 147.5
They are set to face a Detroit squad that outlasted Indiana 2 games to 1 with an identical ats record. The over cashed the ticket 2 out of the 3 games with average lines of 147.
Head to head the ladies from Detroit enjoyed a 3-1 straight up record against New York this year and an identical 3-1 ats record with average lines of 4.5 and a -2 as a dog. The under cashed the ticket 3 out of the 4 games this year with average lines of 149.5.
The line for game 1 is set at New York -1.5 and the over/under line is set at 146, showing that the linesmaker has made an adjustment in response to that 3-1 under streak in their games.
Detroit comes into this series playing better than their adversary, going 7-3 ats in their last 10 games and New York is 6-4 ats in their last 10. Bettors should be aware that New York has gone 2-6 ats in their last 8 home games.
On Thursday, we have a battle of two Western Conference powers San Antonio Silver Stars and Los Angeles Sparks from the Staples Center in downtown Los Angeles.
The Sparks have been assigned an early line of -3 and an over/under line of 139.5
The Silver Stars went 1-2 against the spread in dispatching a game Sacramento squad, while the Sparks went 2-1 ats against the Seattle Storm.
In recent form, the Sparks are playing a little better brand of basketball than the Silver Stars going 8-2 ats overall in their last 10 contests, but that means nothing now as they are set to lay it on the line for a chance to get to the WNBA Finals.
The teams split their season series 2-2 with ats victories with the same mark. The under cashed the ticket 3 out of the 4 contests with average lines of 145. Accordingly the linesmaker has already made an adjustment for the 1st game of this matchup.
Should be interesting.
In the Eastern Conference, the New York Liberty got by the Connecticut Sun with sheer grit and determination going 2-1 straight up and a sparkling 3-0 ats with the under cashing the ticket in all 3 games. The Liberty have had 8 out of their last 10 games go under the total with average lines of 147.5
They are set to face a Detroit squad that outlasted Indiana 2 games to 1 with an identical ats record. The over cashed the ticket 2 out of the 3 games with average lines of 147.
Head to head the ladies from Detroit enjoyed a 3-1 straight up record against New York this year and an identical 3-1 ats record with average lines of 4.5 and a -2 as a dog. The under cashed the ticket 3 out of the 4 games this year with average lines of 149.5.
The line for game 1 is set at New York -1.5 and the over/under line is set at 146, showing that the linesmaker has made an adjustment in response to that 3-1 under streak in their games.
Detroit comes into this series playing better than their adversary, going 7-3 ats in their last 10 games and New York is 6-4 ats in their last 10. Bettors should be aware that New York has gone 2-6 ats in their last 8 home games.
I am awaiting the moneyline figures for these games before I make a pick. As far as totals are concerned, I am leaning toward the under for the Detroit and New York game 1 as the under has cashed the ticket at a rate of 22-8 in the Liberty's last 30 home games.
In the Los Angeles/San Antonio series, I am leaning toward taking the over, as the linesmaker has made a large adjustment from the usual 145 line down to a 139 line. San Antonio has given up an average of 81 points per game in the playoffs, and the Sparks have given up an average of 65.5 or 146.5 combined.
I am awaiting the moneyline figures for these games before I make a pick. As far as totals are concerned, I am leaning toward the under for the Detroit and New York game 1 as the under has cashed the ticket at a rate of 22-8 in the Liberty's last 30 home games.
In the Los Angeles/San Antonio series, I am leaning toward taking the over, as the linesmaker has made a large adjustment from the usual 145 line down to a 139 line. San Antonio has given up an average of 81 points per game in the playoffs, and the Sparks have given up an average of 65.5 or 146.5 combined.
So far however, I do like New York -1.5 in game 1. But i must see a moneyline that coincides with that figure.
San Antonio is my early lean in game one in Los Angeles as the Sparks have show time and a again that they give up leads in the second part of the 3rd quarter and the 4th quarter. not good when facing a complete team like the Silver Stars.
So far however, I do like New York -1.5 in game 1. But i must see a moneyline that coincides with that figure.
San Antonio is my early lean in game one in Los Angeles as the Sparks have show time and a again that they give up leads in the second part of the 3rd quarter and the 4th quarter. not good when facing a complete team like the Silver Stars.
Amateurs make wagers by only studying the teams and trends. A much quicker and effective way of wagering is to read the moneyline and compare it to the amount of points that are being offered in the game. It is never good idea to make a wager without seeing a moneyline that matches up with the amount of points.
For instance, Los Angeles has a moneyline of -150 and a spread of 3, which is incorrect for 3 points. A correct line would be -170 or so for 3 points, so San Antonio gets the nod as far as that game is concerned. I also see San Antonio is +100 for the 1st quarter for a spread of +.5, which is great, because a half point is basically 2 points in basketball.
In New York's case the moneyline for a -1.5 line should be around -130 or -135. If I see a line that is less than that then I would more than likely drop the game from my playbook or take the other side (Detroit). It would be a good idea for all wagerers to learn values in comparison to lines. This is effective in football as well.Your winning percentage will go through the roof, and it requires much less homework.
Another case that stands out to me the Nebraska Cornhuskers playing against Virginia Tech this weekend. I have a write up about the descrepency of the moneyline on that game on the thread. If you want to see how it works, you might want to go to that thread and check out the factors and reasoning I gave.
I hope that I have adequately answered your question, Mr. Steel.
So anyway, onto brass taxes with respect to the game at hand.
San Antonio +.5 1st quarter
San Antonio +3 for the game
San Antonio moneyline +130
If the Sparks ain't up by 15 at the end of the 3rd quarter, they will find a way to let San Antonio get back into the game and possibly steal it.
Amateurs make wagers by only studying the teams and trends. A much quicker and effective way of wagering is to read the moneyline and compare it to the amount of points that are being offered in the game. It is never good idea to make a wager without seeing a moneyline that matches up with the amount of points.
For instance, Los Angeles has a moneyline of -150 and a spread of 3, which is incorrect for 3 points. A correct line would be -170 or so for 3 points, so San Antonio gets the nod as far as that game is concerned. I also see San Antonio is +100 for the 1st quarter for a spread of +.5, which is great, because a half point is basically 2 points in basketball.
In New York's case the moneyline for a -1.5 line should be around -130 or -135. If I see a line that is less than that then I would more than likely drop the game from my playbook or take the other side (Detroit). It would be a good idea for all wagerers to learn values in comparison to lines. This is effective in football as well.Your winning percentage will go through the roof, and it requires much less homework.
Another case that stands out to me the Nebraska Cornhuskers playing against Virginia Tech this weekend. I have a write up about the descrepency of the moneyline on that game on the thread. If you want to see how it works, you might want to go to that thread and check out the factors and reasoning I gave.
I hope that I have adequately answered your question, Mr. Steel.
So anyway, onto brass taxes with respect to the game at hand.
San Antonio +.5 1st quarter
San Antonio +3 for the game
San Antonio moneyline +130
If the Sparks ain't up by 15 at the end of the 3rd quarter, they will find a way to let San Antonio get back into the game and possibly steal it.
I already like NYL at -1.5... but was intially leaning towards LAS, now I'm look into it a bit more. Both teams came off big wins, SA in OT, and LAS surviving another 4th quarter melt down. I'm more inclined to lay off this game and pound the loser of this game for game 2, as I don't see a sweep in this series.
I already like NYL at -1.5... but was intially leaning towards LAS, now I'm look into it a bit more. Both teams came off big wins, SA in OT, and LAS surviving another 4th quarter melt down. I'm more inclined to lay off this game and pound the loser of this game for game 2, as I don't see a sweep in this series.
Nightridah, I like the over for the Los Angeles and San Antonio game. As you indicated this morning it is the lowest total they have had in a long time, which is obviously an adjustment by the linesmaker. I am definitely taking the Silver Stars in the 1st quarter and for the game, as I feel that they have an excellent chance to come in and steal game1. The moneyline is creeping up to where it should be, but then the spread went up to 3.5 with a moneyline of -170, which is still a little off, but it is obviously a response to the overwhelming number of the public taking the LA side.
Nightridah, I like the over for the Los Angeles and San Antonio game. As you indicated this morning it is the lowest total they have had in a long time, which is obviously an adjustment by the linesmaker. I am definitely taking the Silver Stars in the 1st quarter and for the game, as I feel that they have an excellent chance to come in and steal game1. The moneyline is creeping up to where it should be, but then the spread went up to 3.5 with a moneyline of -170, which is still a little off, but it is obviously a response to the overwhelming number of the public taking the LA side.
to all who is reading this shit........whether u post or not....im a be as real as possible.....its only one person who i have learned from since ive been a member....shit even b4 i was a member i used to read peoples opinions before making my decision....but that dude is WATCH......i know im better than the avg. mainly becuz i do this for a living....havent had a job since 98.....but the things that this dude knows is some real shit that have made me or turned me into even more of a dangerous hadicapper......the same will work for u who take this shit serious.....now i aint saying go jump on his nuts ....but learn from this man and u shall see a INCREASE in ya bankroll.....
as far as todays game with LA being at home...and with the way they have dominated at home against SA in rebounding (41-29) and (41-24)... i look 4 LA to come out early with more intensity and set the tone early......besides LA is 4-2 ats in the first half at home vs SA the last 6 times they have played in LA......HOWEVER i believe that SA will dominate the second half and cover the spread....y u ask? becuz LA -3.5 is undervalued compared to the moneyline.....thats some shit i learned from WATCH.....pick.....LA AT THE HALF......SA WITH HALF POINT BUY FOR THE GAME.....AND OVER 138.5 WITH A HALF POINT BUY......PEACE OUT
to all who is reading this shit........whether u post or not....im a be as real as possible.....its only one person who i have learned from since ive been a member....shit even b4 i was a member i used to read peoples opinions before making my decision....but that dude is WATCH......i know im better than the avg. mainly becuz i do this for a living....havent had a job since 98.....but the things that this dude knows is some real shit that have made me or turned me into even more of a dangerous hadicapper......the same will work for u who take this shit serious.....now i aint saying go jump on his nuts ....but learn from this man and u shall see a INCREASE in ya bankroll.....
as far as todays game with LA being at home...and with the way they have dominated at home against SA in rebounding (41-29) and (41-24)... i look 4 LA to come out early with more intensity and set the tone early......besides LA is 4-2 ats in the first half at home vs SA the last 6 times they have played in LA......HOWEVER i believe that SA will dominate the second half and cover the spread....y u ask? becuz LA -3.5 is undervalued compared to the moneyline.....thats some shit i learned from WATCH.....pick.....LA AT THE HALF......SA WITH HALF POINT BUY FOR THE GAME.....AND OVER 138.5 WITH A HALF POINT BUY......PEACE OUT
I am removing Oklahoma State-17.5 from my playbook as the spread doesn't add up to the moneyline. It is so far off that I recommend players that want to take this game to tease it with another if at all.
I am removing Oklahoma State-17.5 from my playbook as the spread doesn't add up to the moneyline. It is so far off that I recommend players that want to take this game to tease it with another if at all.
watch or nightridah....can you please explain how you determine these plays based on the spreads and ML discrepancies? how do you know that the ML is off based on the spread? just trying to figure out how you come up w that, read your writeup in the WNBA and on the neb/vtech game and still not fully grasping it, maybe post here, or PM me if possible, thanks i appreciate the help!
watch or nightridah....can you please explain how you determine these plays based on the spreads and ML discrepancies? how do you know that the ML is off based on the spread? just trying to figure out how you come up w that, read your writeup in the WNBA and on the neb/vtech game and still not fully grasping it, maybe post here, or PM me if possible, thanks i appreciate the help!
OMG, he's back. My prayer has been answered! Finally a WNBA writeup from the legend. I'm w/u on San Antonio +3 for the game all the way... Thank you!!
Looking at the other threads, looks like the rest of the forum is taking Sparks -3.5 which was my initial lean. But win or lose, I'll take my chances w/2 of the best WNBA cappers (watch and nightridah). GL to us.
OMG, he's back. My prayer has been answered! Finally a WNBA writeup from the legend. I'm w/u on San Antonio +3 for the game all the way... Thank you!!
Looking at the other threads, looks like the rest of the forum is taking Sparks -3.5 which was my initial lean. But win or lose, I'll take my chances w/2 of the best WNBA cappers (watch and nightridah). GL to us.
Watch thanks for responding to my question, this is what I thought you meant was making sure. I've looked into that approach and essentially it is a variation to the well known "reverse odds analysis" where you ignore all the trends in a particular event because you know Vegas has already reviewed that when setting their line, instead you focus on the line itself and ask yourself whether that line is an under or over value of the event at hand.
My only comment in this case it that looking at pricing discrepancies between the money line and the line is that you have to continually watch the movements, take the Sparks and Stars as an example. The line has shifted 1/2 point and the moneyline has IMO now corrected itself has it sits at -180. So the question is, is your intial analysis of the discrepancy valid seeing as the money line has corrected itself?
Watch thanks for responding to my question, this is what I thought you meant was making sure. I've looked into that approach and essentially it is a variation to the well known "reverse odds analysis" where you ignore all the trends in a particular event because you know Vegas has already reviewed that when setting their line, instead you focus on the line itself and ask yourself whether that line is an under or over value of the event at hand.
My only comment in this case it that looking at pricing discrepancies between the money line and the line is that you have to continually watch the movements, take the Sparks and Stars as an example. The line has shifted 1/2 point and the moneyline has IMO now corrected itself has it sits at -180. So the question is, is your intial analysis of the discrepancy valid seeing as the money line has corrected itself?
Away from analysing the line itself for a moment, you have a very valid point about Sparks blowing big leads late in the game. Which leads me to believe sitting out to begin with might be a good strategy and then jump on the Stars 2H.
Sparks 1H/Stars 2H strategy of sorts I guess is what I am thinking
Away from analysing the line itself for a moment, you have a very valid point about Sparks blowing big leads late in the game. Which leads me to believe sitting out to begin with might be a good strategy and then jump on the Stars 2H.
Sparks 1H/Stars 2H strategy of sorts I guess is what I am thinking
Can you explain what it implies when the spread and moneyline does not match up?
In the example for the Sparks game, does it mean Vegas put the Sparks line at -3 so more people can play the Sparks when the actual line should be -5 to reflect the value of the moneyline?
Can you explain what it implies when the spread and moneyline does not match up?
In the example for the Sparks game, does it mean Vegas put the Sparks line at -3 so more people can play the Sparks when the actual line should be -5 to reflect the value of the moneyline?
The line has not corrected its'self. it only went further off than it was before.
The line is still a little off for the Sparks. Here's why: there is no sportsbook on earth that will let you buy 4 basketball points for the price of -180. 4 points will cost you 260 or so. 3 points will cost you -185. So in this case the Sparks are undervalued, and therefore not a good play. I mean really 4 points with a moneyline of -180 is as incorrect as it gets. The -180 moneyline coupled with a 3 point spread would have been fine if the spread had not gone up to 4 which is where it stands now. So what we have is a false or a "soft" 4 instead of a firm four points.
San Antonio being a 4 point underdog is actually like taking them +6, as basketball is a game of 2's and 3's which is the increments of how the game is scored. A 4 point loss is a push, so LA must beat them by 6 basically. So in order to take a 4 point favorite, i would have to see a "strong" 4 moneyline. Ideally the linesmaker would discourage bettors from taking the moneyline and settle for taking the points when the moneyline is true and correct. In this case it is undervalued to encourage bettors to take the moneyline for the Sparks so that he can rake in false favorite and moneyline money.
The line has not corrected its'self. it only went further off than it was before.
The line is still a little off for the Sparks. Here's why: there is no sportsbook on earth that will let you buy 4 basketball points for the price of -180. 4 points will cost you 260 or so. 3 points will cost you -185. So in this case the Sparks are undervalued, and therefore not a good play. I mean really 4 points with a moneyline of -180 is as incorrect as it gets. The -180 moneyline coupled with a 3 point spread would have been fine if the spread had not gone up to 4 which is where it stands now. So what we have is a false or a "soft" 4 instead of a firm four points.
San Antonio being a 4 point underdog is actually like taking them +6, as basketball is a game of 2's and 3's which is the increments of how the game is scored. A 4 point loss is a push, so LA must beat them by 6 basically. So in order to take a 4 point favorite, i would have to see a "strong" 4 moneyline. Ideally the linesmaker would discourage bettors from taking the moneyline and settle for taking the points when the moneyline is true and correct. In this case it is undervalued to encourage bettors to take the moneyline for the Sparks so that he can rake in false favorite and moneyline money.
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