Thanks Wuss, and thanks for being one of the good ones on here. "Betting with the Books" has been successful so far this year..
Ten (+7) @ LAC Two weeks ago, Ten had just beaten Jax and Phi and looked like one of the secret best teams in the league. Then they lost to Buf and just to Bal 21-0. Meanwhile, Chargers are looking hella sexy. But this looks like an "overreaction line.” Two weeks ago, it woulda been closer to Ten +3/+4. Chargers stayed on the East Coast after easily handling the Browns. Philip misses his 20 kids. Perhaps he'll be a little groggy from lack of baby-making, a little less than MVP level, vs underrated Ten D (#1 in yards per play in away games). Chargers have beaten SF, Buf, Oak, and Cle, and lost to KC and LAR. -7 just feels like a little much. Books need Ten pretty big here.
NE @ Chi (+2.5/+3) Line opened at +3, but has sat at +2.5 for a couple days even though 70-80% of the bets are on NE. This is classic “pros vs joes.” There's some big "professional money” on the home dog with better D, inviting the public to keep pounding that sexy -2.5 line. The Books are comfortable needing the Bears here. We want to be on the side that the books are comfortable with. Matt Nagy had success vs NE when he was with KC.
Min @ NYJ (+3.5) This is a rare-ish time when both public and professionals seem to be on the same side, a road fave, not surprisingly. Line's gone up from +3, but with "everyone" on one side, we should expect the line to go up even more. Seems like it hasn't gone up enough, and the books are comfortable needing the Jets. If we wanna stick with taking who the books need, NYJ is an automatic bet here. But they have lots of injuries in their secondary. Sounds scary, might stay away.
Hou @ Jax (-4) Hou has squeaked by their last three vs below average teams (not sure what Dal is). Jax D is too good to not bounce back vs overrated DeShaun here at home after embarrassing loss.
Car @ Phi (-4/-5) Cam crumbles vs good DLs (thanks to FallopianTuber for some numbers). Let’s see how many times he whines to the refs. I’ll take O 9 1/2 on that one. Car is out-classed enough here to lay the points.
NYG (+4) @ Atl Atl D is ranked last in yards per play at home. They're a pretty standard public play here. Most likely will be on the G-Men.
Thanks Wuss, and thanks for being one of the good ones on here. "Betting with the Books" has been successful so far this year..
Ten (+7) @ LAC Two weeks ago, Ten had just beaten Jax and Phi and looked like one of the secret best teams in the league. Then they lost to Buf and just to Bal 21-0. Meanwhile, Chargers are looking hella sexy. But this looks like an "overreaction line.” Two weeks ago, it woulda been closer to Ten +3/+4. Chargers stayed on the East Coast after easily handling the Browns. Philip misses his 20 kids. Perhaps he'll be a little groggy from lack of baby-making, a little less than MVP level, vs underrated Ten D (#1 in yards per play in away games). Chargers have beaten SF, Buf, Oak, and Cle, and lost to KC and LAR. -7 just feels like a little much. Books need Ten pretty big here.
NE @ Chi (+2.5/+3) Line opened at +3, but has sat at +2.5 for a couple days even though 70-80% of the bets are on NE. This is classic “pros vs joes.” There's some big "professional money” on the home dog with better D, inviting the public to keep pounding that sexy -2.5 line. The Books are comfortable needing the Bears here. We want to be on the side that the books are comfortable with. Matt Nagy had success vs NE when he was with KC.
Min @ NYJ (+3.5) This is a rare-ish time when both public and professionals seem to be on the same side, a road fave, not surprisingly. Line's gone up from +3, but with "everyone" on one side, we should expect the line to go up even more. Seems like it hasn't gone up enough, and the books are comfortable needing the Jets. If we wanna stick with taking who the books need, NYJ is an automatic bet here. But they have lots of injuries in their secondary. Sounds scary, might stay away.
Hou @ Jax (-4) Hou has squeaked by their last three vs below average teams (not sure what Dal is). Jax D is too good to not bounce back vs overrated DeShaun here at home after embarrassing loss.
Car @ Phi (-4/-5) Cam crumbles vs good DLs (thanks to FallopianTuber for some numbers). Let’s see how many times he whines to the refs. I’ll take O 9 1/2 on that one. Car is out-classed enough here to lay the points.
NYG (+4) @ Atl Atl D is ranked last in yards per play at home. They're a pretty standard public play here. Most likely will be on the G-Men.
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