The Titans line has climbed all the way to +6.5 (-105). I don't see it getting any better than this so I'm going to lock them in right now. The Steelers have played the third easiest schedule in the NFL while the Titans have played the fifth hardest. I'm not surprised then that both teams have similar net RPI ranks in my database. The Titans defense has been torched by some very explosive offensive. They've also struggled with time of possession and playing from behind with an air attack doesn't help this cause. Their defense suffered greatly. Well the Steelers don't exactly have an explosive offense. In fact, they're still ranked dead last in rushing efficiency and are ranked about #19 in total offense. The Steelers are also missing a few key defensive players which won't help their #22 ranked defense. We're catching value on both sides of the ball here. On the one hand, the public still thinks of the Steelers as a powerhouse defense and a productive offense - when in fact they're a bottom tier defense with a pedestrian offense that is ill-equipped at the front line for the transition into a vertical team. On the other hand, you have a Titan team that has allowed more points per game than any other team with a struggling high-profile running back and an injured QB that the public has all but given up on. Certainly, they're not as bad as they look and their record and stats are more a product of their level of competition. Sure they're ranked near the bottom of my power rankings - but so are the Steelers! My most conservative model lined the game at Tenn +4.5 and my more aggressive models produced a winning probability closer to 50/50. After a lackluster week 4, I'll go back to my cash cow this season - the home dog - on Thursday night to start the week. I don't see any reason to set the Steelers higher than 2.5 point road favorites with their current #25 power ranking.
The Titans line has climbed all the way to +6.5 (-105). I don't see it getting any better than this so I'm going to lock them in right now. The Steelers have played the third easiest schedule in the NFL while the Titans have played the fifth hardest. I'm not surprised then that both teams have similar net RPI ranks in my database. The Titans defense has been torched by some very explosive offensive. They've also struggled with time of possession and playing from behind with an air attack doesn't help this cause. Their defense suffered greatly. Well the Steelers don't exactly have an explosive offense. In fact, they're still ranked dead last in rushing efficiency and are ranked about #19 in total offense. The Steelers are also missing a few key defensive players which won't help their #22 ranked defense. We're catching value on both sides of the ball here. On the one hand, the public still thinks of the Steelers as a powerhouse defense and a productive offense - when in fact they're a bottom tier defense with a pedestrian offense that is ill-equipped at the front line for the transition into a vertical team. On the other hand, you have a Titan team that has allowed more points per game than any other team with a struggling high-profile running back and an injured QB that the public has all but given up on. Certainly, they're not as bad as they look and their record and stats are more a product of their level of competition. Sure they're ranked near the bottom of my power rankings - but so are the Steelers! My most conservative model lined the game at Tenn +4.5 and my more aggressive models produced a winning probability closer to 50/50. After a lackluster week 4, I'll go back to my cash cow this season - the home dog - on Thursday night to start the week. I don't see any reason to set the Steelers higher than 2.5 point road favorites with their current #25 power ranking.
Confident with Titans with the probability of Hasselback playing? Hard to back that guy. Even though I say that I am leaning Tenn with you. Dog in the series have cover 75% and a Thurs night prime time game for Tenn. should get them the cover. Steelers aren't the same D they used to be. If Timmons doesn't play the game he did on Sunday, they lose to the Eagles! Thanks for all your hard work and breakdown. You're one of the class guys on this site.
Confident with Titans with the probability of Hasselback playing? Hard to back that guy. Even though I say that I am leaning Tenn with you. Dog in the series have cover 75% and a Thurs night prime time game for Tenn. should get them the cover. Steelers aren't the same D they used to be. If Timmons doesn't play the game he did on Sunday, they lose to the Eagles! Thanks for all your hard work and breakdown. You're one of the class guys on this site.
I had the same option to take it at 7 (-125) and I decided to pass for lower juice. I think the value is so great that if they don't cover the 6, they're probably going to lose by 20 hahaha. Since it's a risky proposition to begin with (betting on my #28th ranked team), I'd prefer not to lower my return on risk any more than it is.
I had the same option to take it at 7 (-125) and I decided to pass for lower juice. I think the value is so great that if they don't cover the 6, they're probably going to lose by 20 hahaha. Since it's a risky proposition to begin with (betting on my #28th ranked team), I'd prefer not to lower my return on risk any more than it is.
not disagreeing with the pick but how are the steelers not a top defense anymore? they were ranked number 1 in total defense last year and still have a lot of those guys, they raped vick constantly on sunday. just curious, thanks
not disagreeing with the pick but how are the steelers not a top defense anymore? they were ranked number 1 in total defense last year and still have a lot of those guys, they raped vick constantly on sunday. just curious, thanks
not disagreeing with the pick but how are the steelers not a top defense anymore? they were ranked number 1 in total defense last year and still have a lot of those guys, they raped vick constantly on sunday. just curious, thanks
Look at the sheets.. look at their defensive numbers.. it's all there. They're not that good anymore.. and they're riddled with key injuries.
not disagreeing with the pick but how are the steelers not a top defense anymore? they were ranked number 1 in total defense last year and still have a lot of those guys, they raped vick constantly on sunday. just curious, thanks
Look at the sheets.. look at their defensive numbers.. it's all there. They're not that good anymore.. and they're riddled with key injuries.
Another play I really like is the Cards -4.5. I see your sheet somewhat likes that as well. Any thoughts as to whether you would play the Cards here?
The Bills are the worst defense in the NFL. I will not be betting on them anytime soon. It's all about finding the right spots to bet against them. All the numbers say Arizona is a steal at -4.5... but in the NFL some things are too good to be true. If there's a game to expect maximum effort from the Bills, it's this one.
Another play I really like is the Cards -4.5. I see your sheet somewhat likes that as well. Any thoughts as to whether you would play the Cards here?
The Bills are the worst defense in the NFL. I will not be betting on them anytime soon. It's all about finding the right spots to bet against them. All the numbers say Arizona is a steal at -4.5... but in the NFL some things are too good to be true. If there's a game to expect maximum effort from the Bills, it's this one.
The Bills are the worst defense in the NFL. I will not be betting on them anytime soon. It's all about finding the right spots to bet against them. All the numbers say Arizona is a steal at -4.5... but in the NFL some things are too good to be true. If there's a game to expect maximum effort from the Bills, it's this one.
bills staying out on the west coast after that 49ers debacle. they will be focused. and their d-line that they paid so much money for is gonna be pissed off after getting ripped over and over on ESPN all week. ....and we all see what the rams pass rush did to Kolb last week....
The Bills are the worst defense in the NFL. I will not be betting on them anytime soon. It's all about finding the right spots to bet against them. All the numbers say Arizona is a steal at -4.5... but in the NFL some things are too good to be true. If there's a game to expect maximum effort from the Bills, it's this one.
bills staying out on the west coast after that 49ers debacle. they will be focused. and their d-line that they paid so much money for is gonna be pissed off after getting ripped over and over on ESPN all week. ....and we all see what the rams pass rush did to Kolb last week....
bills staying out on the west coast after that 49ers debacle. they will be focused. and their d-line that they paid so much money for is gonna be pissed off after getting ripped over and over on ESPN all week. ....and we all see what the rams pass rush did to Kolb last week....
Mario Williams has to actually care enough to be pissed. Having lived in Houston and followed the Texans during their entire existence, let me just say that it is unlikely he cares about getting ripped on ESPN or anywhere else.
bills staying out on the west coast after that 49ers debacle. they will be focused. and their d-line that they paid so much money for is gonna be pissed off after getting ripped over and over on ESPN all week. ....and we all see what the rams pass rush did to Kolb last week....
Mario Williams has to actually care enough to be pissed. Having lived in Houston and followed the Texans during their entire existence, let me just say that it is unlikely he cares about getting ripped on ESPN or anywhere else.
Si1ly..if you have a moment my man I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on a suicide pick this week...I'm in some big pools...and still alive in both...this is the first week I'm really torn....
I've used Philly, Cinncy, Chicago, Baltimore and NO...trying to avoid the top consensus pick in Atlanta, in case the unthinkable should happen...(i.e zona/ne)...any thoughts would be really awesome. Thanks a mil in advance.
Si1ly..if you have a moment my man I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on a suicide pick this week...I'm in some big pools...and still alive in both...this is the first week I'm really torn....
I've used Philly, Cinncy, Chicago, Baltimore and NO...trying to avoid the top consensus pick in Atlanta, in case the unthinkable should happen...(i.e zona/ne)...any thoughts would be really awesome. Thanks a mil in advance.
Si1ly..if you have a moment my man I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on a suicide pick this week...I'm in some big pools...and still alive in both...this is the first week I'm really torn....
I've used Philly, Cinncy, Chicago, Baltimore and NO...trying to avoid the top consensus pick in Atlanta, in case the unthinkable should happen...(i.e zona/ne)...any thoughts would be really awesome. Thanks a mil in advance.
Cheers.
Honestly Atlanta is the best survivor pick this week. The rest of the games are too close to call for the moneyline.
Si1ly..if you have a moment my man I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on a suicide pick this week...I'm in some big pools...and still alive in both...this is the first week I'm really torn....
I've used Philly, Cinncy, Chicago, Baltimore and NO...trying to avoid the top consensus pick in Atlanta, in case the unthinkable should happen...(i.e zona/ne)...any thoughts would be really awesome. Thanks a mil in advance.
Cheers.
Honestly Atlanta is the best survivor pick this week. The rest of the games are too close to call for the moneyline.
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