I think you're right. I cant think of any scenario (other than a complete meltdown) that the Lions get blown out early. They are a much better team with even a decent back who can get tough yards so that it isn't always 2nd and 10.
I've been killing totals lately so going to focus mostly on that and play spreads when we both agree like the Steelers. Also hope you continue after your playoff record last year was 11-0. I know you arent the kind of covers D-bag who would flaunt that, so I thought I'd bring it up
I think you're right. I cant think of any scenario (other than a complete meltdown) that the Lions get blown out early. They are a much better team with even a decent back who can get tough yards so that it isn't always 2nd and 10.
I've been killing totals lately so going to focus mostly on that and play spreads when we both agree like the Steelers. Also hope you continue after your playoff record last year was 11-0. I know you arent the kind of covers D-bag who would flaunt that, so I thought I'd bring it up
I'm locking in all my sides and totals plays right now as I like where they're at right now and aren't likely to get better in any significant way, but could get significantly worse if they move against me.
Already set:
Steelers -7 -125
Lions +11
Lions/Saints o58.5
Added plays:
Giants -3 -105
Falcons/Giants u48
Texans -2.5 -120
Will add write-ups later. And player props will definitely be happening as well.
Also, I am considering this teaser as well, but don't love taking 4-teamers:
Giants +9 / Texans +9 / Lions +22.5 / Steelers +4
Not sure where you got Steelers - 7 but thats a great line. I cant smell anything under 9 now or even a few days ago. I love the pick. A rookie QB in his first playoff game vs Pitt ? Especially a qb who cant throw the ball to save his life.. Pitss defensive coordinator will have Tebow so confused and lost come Sunday. I dont see any way possible how this is not a totally lop sided game.. I honestly dont think that Denver is even worthy of being a playoff team. Its a real joke if you ask me.. You got a winner with this pick. I would load up on it.
I wouldnt touch the Giants game simply based on the fact that they are way to inconsistant + the Falcons are pretty much unbeatable when facing the Giants in NY. I dont know why but they play great football vs the Giants in NY.. I see a game plan by Atlanta where they will try to take away the Giants passrush by handing off to Turner and chewing up yards early. Falcons will set up the pass and big plays in the 2nd quarter. Im not saying that the Giants cant win but its too close for my comfort.
Lions will be a play for me as well. Many people forget the last time these two played, Burleson the wideout for Detroit was flagged for not 1 not 2 but 3 ! offensive pass interference calls which all negated huge 20 yard completions in Saint territory. The Lions were in that game until the end. It was a horrifically officiated game and I can only hope that the refs call this one straight. If they give any advantage towards the Saints, it will not be a competitive game. The biggest key is for the Lions to KEEP THEIR COMPOSURE. If they can do that and I expect them to, I believe they can hang with the Saints down to the last minute of the game.
I'm locking in all my sides and totals plays right now as I like where they're at right now and aren't likely to get better in any significant way, but could get significantly worse if they move against me.
Already set:
Steelers -7 -125
Lions +11
Lions/Saints o58.5
Added plays:
Giants -3 -105
Falcons/Giants u48
Texans -2.5 -120
Will add write-ups later. And player props will definitely be happening as well.
Also, I am considering this teaser as well, but don't love taking 4-teamers:
Giants +9 / Texans +9 / Lions +22.5 / Steelers +4
Not sure where you got Steelers - 7 but thats a great line. I cant smell anything under 9 now or even a few days ago. I love the pick. A rookie QB in his first playoff game vs Pitt ? Especially a qb who cant throw the ball to save his life.. Pitss defensive coordinator will have Tebow so confused and lost come Sunday. I dont see any way possible how this is not a totally lop sided game.. I honestly dont think that Denver is even worthy of being a playoff team. Its a real joke if you ask me.. You got a winner with this pick. I would load up on it.
I wouldnt touch the Giants game simply based on the fact that they are way to inconsistant + the Falcons are pretty much unbeatable when facing the Giants in NY. I dont know why but they play great football vs the Giants in NY.. I see a game plan by Atlanta where they will try to take away the Giants passrush by handing off to Turner and chewing up yards early. Falcons will set up the pass and big plays in the 2nd quarter. Im not saying that the Giants cant win but its too close for my comfort.
Lions will be a play for me as well. Many people forget the last time these two played, Burleson the wideout for Detroit was flagged for not 1 not 2 but 3 ! offensive pass interference calls which all negated huge 20 yard completions in Saint territory. The Lions were in that game until the end. It was a horrifically officiated game and I can only hope that the refs call this one straight. If they give any advantage towards the Saints, it will not be a competitive game. The biggest key is for the Lions to KEEP THEIR COMPOSURE. If they can do that and I expect them to, I believe they can hang with the Saints down to the last minute of the game.
EW: Yeah, Smith should be a huge help, but so should Suh, Delmas and Houston. We've been through the reasons I like this game, but I also want to point out the fact that the Lions have only covered once in their last six. The Saints have covered their last eight. And while this may seem like it favors the Saints, it actually favors the Lions. This little fact has earned us Lions backers a few extra points, and there's no better place for the linesmakers to buck trends like this than the first playoff game (where handles are bigger) while the public is heavily on the home favorite. Not sure I'm happy you brought that record up. Doubt I can live up to it. Hehe.
Serpico: Yeah, it was -7.5 at my local when it opened and I bought it to 7, but even -125 was cheaper than I thought it should be. I also don't think Denver is a playoff team. The Chargers are much better. It's a shame they made just one idiotic mistake too many (like the Cowboys) to make it to the playoffs. My only reservations about this game is that the line movement is slightly odd. Making me question my beliefs a bit. I feel like I'm missing something. Honestly, I have my bet in, not changing, but not as confident as I once was.
I also give zero credence to a trend like the one you bring up regarding the Falcons. First of all, they're very beatable, that 5-0 trend is ATS. Then, the only time this incarnation of the Falcons faced the Giants, they lost by 3 while getting 7. What does it matter what the Falcons did before Mike Smith, either O.C. or D.C., Ryan, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner and countless other players and coaches. The Falcons stink. They're pretenders. They are only in the playoffs because of a cake schedule. They lost to almost every legit team they faced, and handily. Their only quality win was against the Lions, and the Lions pretty much beat themselves. The Giants have been phenomenal at not doing that lately.
I agree with all your points on the Lions, and as someone who started Burleson in one of my fantasy leagues that day, I remember those penalties well. Composure will be a huge factor, and it's worth worrying about. Still think 11 is too many points. BOL to you too.
EW: Yeah, Smith should be a huge help, but so should Suh, Delmas and Houston. We've been through the reasons I like this game, but I also want to point out the fact that the Lions have only covered once in their last six. The Saints have covered their last eight. And while this may seem like it favors the Saints, it actually favors the Lions. This little fact has earned us Lions backers a few extra points, and there's no better place for the linesmakers to buck trends like this than the first playoff game (where handles are bigger) while the public is heavily on the home favorite. Not sure I'm happy you brought that record up. Doubt I can live up to it. Hehe.
Serpico: Yeah, it was -7.5 at my local when it opened and I bought it to 7, but even -125 was cheaper than I thought it should be. I also don't think Denver is a playoff team. The Chargers are much better. It's a shame they made just one idiotic mistake too many (like the Cowboys) to make it to the playoffs. My only reservations about this game is that the line movement is slightly odd. Making me question my beliefs a bit. I feel like I'm missing something. Honestly, I have my bet in, not changing, but not as confident as I once was.
I also give zero credence to a trend like the one you bring up regarding the Falcons. First of all, they're very beatable, that 5-0 trend is ATS. Then, the only time this incarnation of the Falcons faced the Giants, they lost by 3 while getting 7. What does it matter what the Falcons did before Mike Smith, either O.C. or D.C., Ryan, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner and countless other players and coaches. The Falcons stink. They're pretenders. They are only in the playoffs because of a cake schedule. They lost to almost every legit team they faced, and handily. Their only quality win was against the Lions, and the Lions pretty much beat themselves. The Giants have been phenomenal at not doing that lately.
I agree with all your points on the Lions, and as someone who started Burleson in one of my fantasy leagues that day, I remember those penalties well. Composure will be a huge factor, and it's worth worrying about. Still think 11 is too many points. BOL to you too.
Werker, I agree with you on the CINCY TEXANS game. Cincy just can't get it done with quality opposition. Cincy lost by 8 points at home in a must win game and were gashed pretty good on the ground. Maybe CINCY is a year away and a good offseason from making a real run. One proviso - TJY mustn't play like a 3rd string rookie quarterback. Good Luck.
Werker, I agree with you on the CINCY TEXANS game. Cincy just can't get it done with quality opposition. Cincy lost by 8 points at home in a must win game and were gashed pretty good on the ground. Maybe CINCY is a year away and a good offseason from making a real run. One proviso - TJY mustn't play like a 3rd string rookie quarterback. Good Luck.
EW: I like the total teaser a lot. On the other, I like LSU, but it's going to hard for them to win by more than a TD. I don't have access to that teaser option unfortunately. BOL on everything
whalerchris: Thanks. He's apparently been looking normal in practice and has taken all first team snaps. I don't expect the injury to be any issue at all. The Texans are creeping up on me as my favorite bet of the week.
Added Play:
Lions/Steelers ML Parlay +593: I just see value in this one. I think the Lions actual odds of winning are right around two to one and the Steelers at around ten to one. Playing for about half normal size.
EW: I like the total teaser a lot. On the other, I like LSU, but it's going to hard for them to win by more than a TD. I don't have access to that teaser option unfortunately. BOL on everything
whalerchris: Thanks. He's apparently been looking normal in practice and has taken all first team snaps. I don't expect the injury to be any issue at all. The Texans are creeping up on me as my favorite bet of the week.
Added Play:
Lions/Steelers ML Parlay +593: I just see value in this one. I think the Lions actual odds of winning are right around two to one and the Steelers at around ten to one. Playing for about half normal size.
thanks Werker. I read on PTB's thread that only twice in the past 21 years of the Wildcard round have all 4 favs won SU. 2 - 19, incredible! I think its going to 3 - 19 after this wknd however! i have been humming and hawing all week, but there aint one dog that catches my attention that I think is gonna advance. just my opinion. i am already on the Steelers, Giants and Texans, all ATS. I think the Lions keep it within a TD, but damn, I sure cant see them beating Brees in the Dome!
thanks Werker. I read on PTB's thread that only twice in the past 21 years of the Wildcard round have all 4 favs won SU. 2 - 19, incredible! I think its going to 3 - 19 after this wknd however! i have been humming and hawing all week, but there aint one dog that catches my attention that I think is gonna advance. just my opinion. i am already on the Steelers, Giants and Texans, all ATS. I think the Lions keep it within a TD, but damn, I sure cant see them beating Brees in the Dome!
Werker, as always, I like your threads and like reading your opinions. I agree with your Pit pick, so no reason to discuss that further.
I am now ambivalent on my Cin pick, due to one reason alone. I read Dalton spent a night in the hospital near a toilet (lol) with flu symptoms. I expect he can recover somewhat in time by Sat and maybe they can improve his condition with an IV game morning, but I don't like at all that he likely won't be 100%. If he has a bad game, that will be all Hou needs to take this game. On the other side, Hou has been way too conservative with game planning/play calling since and including the Car game especially, and the obvious effect IMO is also painfully obvious as to why they lost @ Indy (a game they did want to win). This is not how they played with Schaub at the helm, and IMO it shows a distrust for Yates by keeping the game out of his hands so to speak with too much running, especially on early downs which creates too much predictability and is easier to defense. Cin's defense is not bad, and giving them the advantage of knowing in advance to stack the box on early downs and playing the pass on 3rd down is stupid and should be costly. Maybe Hou will cut Yates loose, but coming off the shoulder injury on the very first snap of the last game, I would think it more likely they will try and protect him by forcing a run game and letting him throw when they need to. IMO, that's bad play calling and it usually does not end well for the conservative team. If they play that same conservative game plan with run, run, pass BS...I think that should open the door for a tighter than expected game with Cin...provided Dalton recovers sufficiently to have at least some production with the offense. I have Cin +9 on teasers, I'm going to leave it at that. Anyway, 2 decent defenses, I wouldn't expect a lot of scoring.
Even though you like NYG, you finally did say Atl and NYG both suck, but in your opinon, NYG not as much. That's pretty much how I see it, and why I prefer taking points in that situation. I can see your point that Atl's apparent offensive scoring of late is due to playing crap teams. Then again, I consider NYG a crap team and you nearly said as much yourself. With the Giants, you roll the dice on whether the good or bad NYG show up. I have Atl +9 on a teaser, I think I'll leave it at that as well.
Our main difference in opinion is the NO game. I have noticed on Covers very consistently throughout the season that people completely underestimate the Superdome factor. I heard all about how NYG were going to beat the Saints, I bet NO and that worked out. I heard all about how Atl was going to pull off the upset, I would have none of that either. I heard all about how Det was going to give NO all they could handle on the earlier SN game, I had NO, wasn't worried, and it turned out as I expected (a lop-sided final score). It's my opinion that few cappers give proper respect to what happens in the Superdome on Prime Time. What happens is that because it is a dome, and because the crowd is in full Mardi Gras-like fervor, the noise factor is too much for the away team's offense to deal with. That crowd is pretty savvy and they concentrate their ultra-noisy efforts when the opposing offense is trying to do their stuff. False starts, other penalties disrupt the offense and the end result is lower than usual productivity for that offense. BTW, Detroit doesn't need a whole lot of help causing penalties, they do a super job of that all by themselves, being one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. Also, NO feeds off of the energy of their home crowd, and play way better than they do elsewhere or at any other time. They have a balanced offense getting productivity from the run and the pass; Det has had a problem getting production from their run game this season. I don't like 1 dimensional offenses, especially facing a top tier team like NO, in their house. You mentioned turnover stats for the two teams. I would like to point out that as NO is a different team home and away, as is Det. Det at home also has a dome/loud-crowd advantage and they play better there, not as well on the road just like the Saints. Det's TO margin on the road is actually -2. NO's TO margin @ home is +5. You can't just look at the aggregate #s because neither team plays the same home and away, and both teams enjoy a huge advantage with their home venue. At the least, I certainly do not see any advantage for Det in the TO dept. Anyway, I hope it will be a very entertaining and high-scoring game, it sure figures to be. BOL on your wild card weekend and thanks for your weekly threads!
Werker, as always, I like your threads and like reading your opinions. I agree with your Pit pick, so no reason to discuss that further.
I am now ambivalent on my Cin pick, due to one reason alone. I read Dalton spent a night in the hospital near a toilet (lol) with flu symptoms. I expect he can recover somewhat in time by Sat and maybe they can improve his condition with an IV game morning, but I don't like at all that he likely won't be 100%. If he has a bad game, that will be all Hou needs to take this game. On the other side, Hou has been way too conservative with game planning/play calling since and including the Car game especially, and the obvious effect IMO is also painfully obvious as to why they lost @ Indy (a game they did want to win). This is not how they played with Schaub at the helm, and IMO it shows a distrust for Yates by keeping the game out of his hands so to speak with too much running, especially on early downs which creates too much predictability and is easier to defense. Cin's defense is not bad, and giving them the advantage of knowing in advance to stack the box on early downs and playing the pass on 3rd down is stupid and should be costly. Maybe Hou will cut Yates loose, but coming off the shoulder injury on the very first snap of the last game, I would think it more likely they will try and protect him by forcing a run game and letting him throw when they need to. IMO, that's bad play calling and it usually does not end well for the conservative team. If they play that same conservative game plan with run, run, pass BS...I think that should open the door for a tighter than expected game with Cin...provided Dalton recovers sufficiently to have at least some production with the offense. I have Cin +9 on teasers, I'm going to leave it at that. Anyway, 2 decent defenses, I wouldn't expect a lot of scoring.
Even though you like NYG, you finally did say Atl and NYG both suck, but in your opinon, NYG not as much. That's pretty much how I see it, and why I prefer taking points in that situation. I can see your point that Atl's apparent offensive scoring of late is due to playing crap teams. Then again, I consider NYG a crap team and you nearly said as much yourself. With the Giants, you roll the dice on whether the good or bad NYG show up. I have Atl +9 on a teaser, I think I'll leave it at that as well.
Our main difference in opinion is the NO game. I have noticed on Covers very consistently throughout the season that people completely underestimate the Superdome factor. I heard all about how NYG were going to beat the Saints, I bet NO and that worked out. I heard all about how Atl was going to pull off the upset, I would have none of that either. I heard all about how Det was going to give NO all they could handle on the earlier SN game, I had NO, wasn't worried, and it turned out as I expected (a lop-sided final score). It's my opinion that few cappers give proper respect to what happens in the Superdome on Prime Time. What happens is that because it is a dome, and because the crowd is in full Mardi Gras-like fervor, the noise factor is too much for the away team's offense to deal with. That crowd is pretty savvy and they concentrate their ultra-noisy efforts when the opposing offense is trying to do their stuff. False starts, other penalties disrupt the offense and the end result is lower than usual productivity for that offense. BTW, Detroit doesn't need a whole lot of help causing penalties, they do a super job of that all by themselves, being one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. Also, NO feeds off of the energy of their home crowd, and play way better than they do elsewhere or at any other time. They have a balanced offense getting productivity from the run and the pass; Det has had a problem getting production from their run game this season. I don't like 1 dimensional offenses, especially facing a top tier team like NO, in their house. You mentioned turnover stats for the two teams. I would like to point out that as NO is a different team home and away, as is Det. Det at home also has a dome/loud-crowd advantage and they play better there, not as well on the road just like the Saints. Det's TO margin on the road is actually -2. NO's TO margin @ home is +5. You can't just look at the aggregate #s because neither team plays the same home and away, and both teams enjoy a huge advantage with their home venue. At the least, I certainly do not see any advantage for Det in the TO dept. Anyway, I hope it will be a very entertaining and high-scoring game, it sure figures to be. BOL on your wild card weekend and thanks for your weekly threads!
EW: I'd be careful about playing bigger than your used to simply because it's approaching the end of the season. Granted, this is advice that I need to pay more attention to myself. Hehe. BOL
whalerchris: I really really don't pay attention to trends like that. I mean, the individual games have nothing to do with one another on a given year. I do think the most likely scenario is that all four favorites win SU this year, but it wouldn't shock me if one of them got the upset (go lions). A trend I would be very interested to see is the amount of times the spread has mattered. Actually, just did it for the last 5 years and spreads have only mattered three times. Shockingly, two of those times were 1 and 2 point wins with spreads of 2.5. In that same span, favorites were 12-8 SU. Not exactly a great record, but all of this is sort of misleading. About half of these games had spreads under 3, so it's not exactly REAL favorites here. Teams favored by 7 or more were 4-1 ATS and SU (with the Seahawks last year being the only upset). This was all just for fun unless I found something truly interesting. I didn't. Anyway, BOL.
TomE: As always, you are not brief, so I'll respond in kind. hehe, welcome to the party.
It's funny, I'm actually becoming least confident in the Steelers play. Pouncey being out is really not good. They already have a weak o-line and Pouncey is possibly their best guy. With Big Ben's mobility issues, this could be serious. I haven't done anything crazy like buy back the bet, but as I said, I'm probably least confident in this pick.
I'm starting to seriously like having the Texans. I really think the Texans will be able to control TOP with Foster and make enough stops on defense that this game should be basically over by the end of the 3rd quarter. Cincy's defense isn't terrible, but they're definitely beatable by a strong ground game, and Andre Johnson will go wild if they aren't double teaming him. But if they double team him, Foster will be absolutely dominant in the passing game. I just don't think the Bengals have enough tools to stop the Texans without a shutdown corner. On the other side of the ball, Dalton's hit his rookie wall about as much as I've ever seen. Jo Jo basically shut down Green the last time they met, and if he's able to do so again, the Bengals will not be able to move the ball. I do definitely agree that NFL football is hard to play successfully with conservative strategies, UNLESS you can just run the ball even when they know you're going to do it. I think they will be able to.
Easy with the talk of the Giants being crap. The Giants are capable of beating anyone and losing to just about anyone. The thing that makes me comfortable taking the Giants is that I think Ryan absolutely stinks, especially outdoors, and especially under pressure. I think JPP will be the reason they win this one. And Turner has been absolutely terrible against real NFL teams lately. The guy is dunzo.
Fair enough. I acknowledge that I don't give all that much credence to the superdome factor. Their defense surprisingly doesn't play much better there than away. It's their offense that plays better at home. I have been capping the game against their home offense. If this were @ DET, I'd be all over that money line, you'd better believe it. I think you're seriously over stating the previous 14 point loss as "lopsided." Don't forget that the Saints covered by 5 points, and scored just 7 points in the second half of that game. And the Lions were down two of their best DBs (Houston and Delmas) and their best defensive player (Suh). Not to mention the fact that Smith torched the Saints defense whenever he touched the ball, and that was a VERY limited role because he was injured. AND Stafford was still not 100%. AND they even completely screwed themselves with penalties (I've never seen 3 offensive PI calls on the same guy in the same game before).....Listen, I'm not saying the Saints shouldn't be favorites by any means, but the Lions will absolutely be competitive in this game. (regardless of turnovers)
EW: I'd be careful about playing bigger than your used to simply because it's approaching the end of the season. Granted, this is advice that I need to pay more attention to myself. Hehe. BOL
whalerchris: I really really don't pay attention to trends like that. I mean, the individual games have nothing to do with one another on a given year. I do think the most likely scenario is that all four favorites win SU this year, but it wouldn't shock me if one of them got the upset (go lions). A trend I would be very interested to see is the amount of times the spread has mattered. Actually, just did it for the last 5 years and spreads have only mattered three times. Shockingly, two of those times were 1 and 2 point wins with spreads of 2.5. In that same span, favorites were 12-8 SU. Not exactly a great record, but all of this is sort of misleading. About half of these games had spreads under 3, so it's not exactly REAL favorites here. Teams favored by 7 or more were 4-1 ATS and SU (with the Seahawks last year being the only upset). This was all just for fun unless I found something truly interesting. I didn't. Anyway, BOL.
TomE: As always, you are not brief, so I'll respond in kind. hehe, welcome to the party.
It's funny, I'm actually becoming least confident in the Steelers play. Pouncey being out is really not good. They already have a weak o-line and Pouncey is possibly their best guy. With Big Ben's mobility issues, this could be serious. I haven't done anything crazy like buy back the bet, but as I said, I'm probably least confident in this pick.
I'm starting to seriously like having the Texans. I really think the Texans will be able to control TOP with Foster and make enough stops on defense that this game should be basically over by the end of the 3rd quarter. Cincy's defense isn't terrible, but they're definitely beatable by a strong ground game, and Andre Johnson will go wild if they aren't double teaming him. But if they double team him, Foster will be absolutely dominant in the passing game. I just don't think the Bengals have enough tools to stop the Texans without a shutdown corner. On the other side of the ball, Dalton's hit his rookie wall about as much as I've ever seen. Jo Jo basically shut down Green the last time they met, and if he's able to do so again, the Bengals will not be able to move the ball. I do definitely agree that NFL football is hard to play successfully with conservative strategies, UNLESS you can just run the ball even when they know you're going to do it. I think they will be able to.
Easy with the talk of the Giants being crap. The Giants are capable of beating anyone and losing to just about anyone. The thing that makes me comfortable taking the Giants is that I think Ryan absolutely stinks, especially outdoors, and especially under pressure. I think JPP will be the reason they win this one. And Turner has been absolutely terrible against real NFL teams lately. The guy is dunzo.
Fair enough. I acknowledge that I don't give all that much credence to the superdome factor. Their defense surprisingly doesn't play much better there than away. It's their offense that plays better at home. I have been capping the game against their home offense. If this were @ DET, I'd be all over that money line, you'd better believe it. I think you're seriously over stating the previous 14 point loss as "lopsided." Don't forget that the Saints covered by 5 points, and scored just 7 points in the second half of that game. And the Lions were down two of their best DBs (Houston and Delmas) and their best defensive player (Suh). Not to mention the fact that Smith torched the Saints defense whenever he touched the ball, and that was a VERY limited role because he was injured. AND Stafford was still not 100%. AND they even completely screwed themselves with penalties (I've never seen 3 offensive PI calls on the same guy in the same game before).....Listen, I'm not saying the Saints shouldn't be favorites by any means, but the Lions will absolutely be competitive in this game. (regardless of turnovers)
I don't have access to the prop, but I'd seriously want to take the YES on "will Sproles score a touchdown" tonight at any plus money odds. I'd say he's the single most likely Saint to do so with Moore out.
I don't have access to the prop, but I'd seriously want to take the YES on "will Sproles score a touchdown" tonight at any plus money odds. I'd say he's the single most likely Saint to do so with Moore out.
I'm going to count this as one play because I wouldn't really make any of these plays without the others.
Burleson to score a TD +200
Young to score a TD +200
Pettigrew to score a TD +2000
If one of them scores, it's break even. Personally, I think there's almost no shot that none of these hit. I think it's pretty likely that two of them hit. Scenarios are -3 units, break even, +3 units, +6 units. I think this will break even more than half the time, but see none of them scoring as the least likely scenario. That's enough upside for me.
If you're wondering, Megatron is -150. I think that's just about right, with no real value to it. The Saints dedicated more guys to covering him than I've ever seen before. But then again, he's MEGATRON.
I'm going to count this as one play because I wouldn't really make any of these plays without the others.
Burleson to score a TD +200
Young to score a TD +200
Pettigrew to score a TD +2000
If one of them scores, it's break even. Personally, I think there's almost no shot that none of these hit. I think it's pretty likely that two of them hit. Scenarios are -3 units, break even, +3 units, +6 units. I think this will break even more than half the time, but see none of them scoring as the least likely scenario. That's enough upside for me.
If you're wondering, Megatron is -150. I think that's just about right, with no real value to it. The Saints dedicated more guys to covering him than I've ever seen before. But then again, he's MEGATRON.
THX for your perspective Werk and GL on the weekend... Funny as you said it was funny that your least confident play at this point is Pitt... Have the same feeling. If the Lions prevail SU tonight, which I still hold as a real possibility, I will stick with Pitt tomorrow. If Saints prevail, I'll switch boats to the sinking ship of Tebow on the pure premise that a dog or two survives the weekend. I also think Atlanta has a decent shot. Take care buddy and again, GL!!
THX for your perspective Werk and GL on the weekend... Funny as you said it was funny that your least confident play at this point is Pitt... Have the same feeling. If the Lions prevail SU tonight, which I still hold as a real possibility, I will stick with Pitt tomorrow. If Saints prevail, I'll switch boats to the sinking ship of Tebow on the pure premise that a dog or two survives the weekend. I also think Atlanta has a decent shot. Take care buddy and again, GL!!
MGD: I won't base any of my plays tomorrow on what happens today, but yeah. Could definitely be interesting.
I think ATL has a solid shot to win. Pretty evenly matched teams, but I do think the wind will hurt Ryan's accuracy. It's actually beautiful weather in NY this weekend, but the wind still swirls.
MGD: I won't base any of my plays tomorrow on what happens today, but yeah. Could definitely be interesting.
I think ATL has a solid shot to win. Pretty evenly matched teams, but I do think the wind will hurt Ryan's accuracy. It's actually beautiful weather in NY this weekend, but the wind still swirls.
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