twodigitz- that post makes no sense
1. This is a series chase. I DO NOT chase after a 3rd straight loss in a
4 game series. IDK why, but I don't. You can if you like.- I know why-- after the 3rd loss you lost most of your bankroll and you do not have enough to cover the 4th game action, most likely you can not get that type of action.
If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase.
If any team is the home team and they have an RPI of 42 points or more than the visiting team, take the home team for a series chase.
Basically playing the top 4 teams against the bottom 5.
Any top 5 teams is going to be at least a -170 fav against the bottom 5 teams, no matter if they lost the first 2 of the series.
So first game(A) you lay 170 to win 100
You lose
Now in-order to get back to even you need to lay around 300 on the second game aka-B ( assuming the line stays around -170) to win 170 now your back to even if B wins.
Lets say you lose B
Now you have to lay roughly 800 to win roughly 470 and you will be back to even.
( this is why the guy doesn't play game 4, he wont be able to afford it but lets just see what would happen if he HAD to play gm 4 at around -170)
Now you need to lay roughly 2200 to win roughly 1300.
Lets see how you need to play to make a profit;
If he ONLY played it to the max of 3 games, assuming he lost all 3 he would be down roughly 1300.
If he wins game 1 hes up 100...however....
If he loses game 1 hes now playing to break even with game 2(B) or game 3(C).
The theory of this play is the need to win game 1. If you lose game 1 now you have to risk a large amount to break even.
(If he chased and lost the 4th game hes down roughly 3,500)
this season its 30-1 check it our yourself dumb dumbWhen you say 30 are you counting games A,B AND C ( just not counting the game A or B loses because one of the 3 games will be a winner, in which case do you give yourself another W?) and is the 1 a game 3-C loss?
My whole point is you will ONLY make a profit with a game 1 win ( whats that record??). If game 1 loses, you should not count it as a W because you WILL NOT win anything, you will now hope to get back to even and not lose everything in the next 2-3 games. So tell us what that the record really is.
1 game 1 win=100
1 3 game losing streak = -1300
you need to go 13-0 on game A for every 1 3 game losing streak ( assuming juice is roughly 170). Remember game B or game C wins do not count towards that 13 win, because there is no profit. If you had to chase to get to game 4 you now need to go 34-0 On Game A to make a profit ( for every 4 game losing streak). 30-1 and your a loser.
I'm assuming most places will not take game 4 action, pretty sure he wont get game 3 either.