AGAIN......you're thinking right /wrong.....smart / stupid
IT'S SIMPLE VEGAS SLANG....REFERRING MOSTLY TO BETTING BEHAVIORS........recreational vs experienced or professional bettors bet differently..........PERIOD
Just as a rookie day trader....or a guy that studies for a week or two....thinks he's gonna kill the Forex market
*SHOCKER!....his approach / strategy will vary tremendously from an
educated /seasoned / successful veteran trader ............... *YES....this guy may in fact make more money than the pro (short run)
However.....his METHODS......might be referred to as amateurish...or 'square'............................get it?.... *his stock picks.........ditto
*Experienced
bettors recognize that a team that finishes strong.........is not
NECESSARILY......a team to 'play on' in bowls........especially vs a
young team on the rise.......like UCLA.....who is thrilled to play
here....with a nice home-field edge too.......> started strong...then faded
SO.....in a simple labeling of betting trends....Baylor is probably a 'public' favorite....UCLA ...probably....the side (if any)....most 'sharps' will be on
Better example is probably Georgia / Nebraska.......Most of the money will follow the teams as last seen on TV.....very few recreational bettors (99%+ here) will be on Nebraska........most professionals.....are waiting for this one to rise further......as the VALUE is with the Huskers in a big way........> look for a very late push on Nebraska *Georgia....is clearly.....the SQUARE......side Nebraska......clearly the SHARP side..........
Georgia.....may.....and should.....slaughter the Huskers But the pro's bet the NUMBER (not the TEAM).......and will INVEST in Nebraska at an inflated price................ *and will most likely.....avoid Georgia in this spot
One of the best things about bowl season is the ability to take advantage of the match ups afforded by teams meeting which are maximized by teams meeting for the first time or very infrequently which propose a challenge via mismatch to their opponent. For example:
1. Teams that run the spread vs teams that do not have the skills to defend it well. 2. Same thing with the option. 3. Teams that predominately run (or Pass) vs teams that defend the run or pass well. 4. Teams that do not match up well vs a quality "dual threat" QB. 5. Teams that have played a tougher quality of opponent.
I believe that exploiting these types of "mismatches" is where our opportunity to have success on a consistent basis is more likely to be realized.
Best of Luck to all
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
AGAIN......you're thinking right /wrong.....smart / stupid
IT'S SIMPLE VEGAS SLANG....REFERRING MOSTLY TO BETTING BEHAVIORS........recreational vs experienced or professional bettors bet differently..........PERIOD
Just as a rookie day trader....or a guy that studies for a week or two....thinks he's gonna kill the Forex market
*SHOCKER!....his approach / strategy will vary tremendously from an
educated /seasoned / successful veteran trader ............... *YES....this guy may in fact make more money than the pro (short run)
However.....his METHODS......might be referred to as amateurish...or 'square'............................get it?.... *his stock picks.........ditto
*Experienced
bettors recognize that a team that finishes strong.........is not
NECESSARILY......a team to 'play on' in bowls........especially vs a
young team on the rise.......like UCLA.....who is thrilled to play
here....with a nice home-field edge too.......> started strong...then faded
SO.....in a simple labeling of betting trends....Baylor is probably a 'public' favorite....UCLA ...probably....the side (if any)....most 'sharps' will be on
Better example is probably Georgia / Nebraska.......Most of the money will follow the teams as last seen on TV.....very few recreational bettors (99%+ here) will be on Nebraska........most professionals.....are waiting for this one to rise further......as the VALUE is with the Huskers in a big way........> look for a very late push on Nebraska *Georgia....is clearly.....the SQUARE......side Nebraska......clearly the SHARP side..........
Georgia.....may.....and should.....slaughter the Huskers But the pro's bet the NUMBER (not the TEAM).......and will INVEST in Nebraska at an inflated price................ *and will most likely.....avoid Georgia in this spot
One of the best things about bowl season is the ability to take advantage of the match ups afforded by teams meeting which are maximized by teams meeting for the first time or very infrequently which propose a challenge via mismatch to their opponent. For example:
1. Teams that run the spread vs teams that do not have the skills to defend it well. 2. Same thing with the option. 3. Teams that predominately run (or Pass) vs teams that defend the run or pass well. 4. Teams that do not match up well vs a quality "dual threat" QB. 5. Teams that have played a tougher quality of opponent.
I believe that exploiting these types of "mismatches" is where our opportunity to have success on a consistent basis is more likely to be realized.
good points, Wiseguy... i think in general, the importance of solid QB play and good coaching are amplified in bowl games... you are generally well-advised to back teams that have a favorable mismatch in one or both of these areas...
good points, Wiseguy... i think in general, the importance of solid QB play and good coaching are amplified in bowl games... you are generally well-advised to back teams that have a favorable mismatch in one or both of these areas...
good points, Wiseguy... i think in general, the importance of solid QB play and good coaching are amplified in bowl games... you are generally well-advised to back teams that have a favorable mismatch in one or both of these areas...
AL, Thanks.I also look for teams that have history of past bowl success (with their current head coach) or teams that lost their bowl game last year and is looking to step it up this year.
AL, best of Luck this bowl season
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
good points, Wiseguy... i think in general, the importance of solid QB play and good coaching are amplified in bowl games... you are generally well-advised to back teams that have a favorable mismatch in one or both of these areas...
AL, Thanks.I also look for teams that have history of past bowl success (with their current head coach) or teams that lost their bowl game last year and is looking to step it up this year.
I don't think "sharps" would take a side in this game. It should be a back and forth game and either team could win by 14 to 20 points.
My guess is the sharp would take the over or take a pass on this game.
Two good offenses + two shaky defenses = over or no play
But if you prefer a team that can run and pass, you go with UCLA. But if you prefer a team that passes so well they don't need to run much, then you go with Baylor.
I don't think "sharps" would take a side in this game. It should be a back and forth game and either team could win by 14 to 20 points.
My guess is the sharp would take the over or take a pass on this game.
Two good offenses + two shaky defenses = over or no play
But if you prefer a team that can run and pass, you go with UCLA. But if you prefer a team that passes so well they don't need to run much, then you go with Baylor.
One of the best things about bowl season is the ability to take advantage of the match ups afforded by teams meeting which are maximized by teams meeting for the first time or very infrequently which propose a challenge via mismatch to their opponent. For example:
1. Teams that run the spread vs teams that do not have the skills to defend it well. 2. Same thing with the option. 3. Teams that predominately run (or Pass) vs teams that defend the run or pass well. 4. Teams that do not match up well vs a quality "dual threat" QB. 5. Teams that have played a tougher quality of opponent.
I believe that exploiting these types of "mismatches" is where our opportunity to have success on a consistent basis is more likely to be realized.
Best of Luck to all
Agreed.....but we will be 'requiring' a list of those teams....in a few days or so............ *I'll match it with my own and a bunch of other stuff including all coaching implications............
* I'll be finished hopefully by Saturday
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
One of the best things about bowl season is the ability to take advantage of the match ups afforded by teams meeting which are maximized by teams meeting for the first time or very infrequently which propose a challenge via mismatch to their opponent. For example:
1. Teams that run the spread vs teams that do not have the skills to defend it well. 2. Same thing with the option. 3. Teams that predominately run (or Pass) vs teams that defend the run or pass well. 4. Teams that do not match up well vs a quality "dual threat" QB. 5. Teams that have played a tougher quality of opponent.
I believe that exploiting these types of "mismatches" is where our opportunity to have success on a consistent basis is more likely to be realized.
Best of Luck to all
Agreed.....but we will be 'requiring' a list of those teams....in a few days or so............ *I'll match it with my own and a bunch of other stuff including all coaching implications............
Agreed.....but we will be 'requiring' a list of those teams....in a few days or so............ *I'll match it with my own and a bunch of other stuff including all coaching implications............
* I'll be finished hopefully by Saturday
Bookie, with my limited keyboard skills, I can have detailed write ups for you by Ground Hog Day.
I'll get right on it.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Agreed.....but we will be 'requiring' a list of those teams....in a few days or so............ *I'll match it with my own and a bunch of other stuff including all coaching implications............
* I'll be finished hopefully by Saturday
Bookie, with my limited keyboard skills, I can have detailed write ups for you by Ground Hog Day.
To check out head coach Bowl records, go to Beyond the Bets site and check out their article of 12 / 5 on the record (incl ATS) for 70 college football Head coaches.I think you'll be surprised at the records of some of the more "high profile" members.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
To check out head coach Bowl records, go to Beyond the Bets site and check out their article of 12 / 5 on the record (incl ATS) for 70 college football Head coaches.I think you'll be surprised at the records of some of the more "high profile" members.
Arizona- Offense Balanced Head Coach " Rich Rod " Bowl Record vs spread 1-5 Key Team stats./ National rankings Scoring offense #17 Scoring defense #101, run defense #88 Avg ppg scored 36 Key point: Played much tougher sched. than Nevada.
Nevada- Offense Run 61 % Head Coach Chris Ault 2-5 ats in bowl games. Key team stats/rankings Scoring offense # 20 Scoring defense # 94 Avg ppg scored 36
See no edge for either side, OVER is very tempting.
TOLEDO / UTAH ST. Line: UTSU - 10 1/2 tot. 58 1/2
Toledo - Offense run 55% Head Coach M. Campbell (no bowl exp.) Rushing offense # 39 Total defense #106
UTSU- Offense Balanced Head Coach G. Andersen Bowl spread record 0-1 Offense total off. # 36 (avg. 35 ppg) Total Defense #15 Scoring Defense #8 Rushing Defense #12 Allows only 2.9 ypr Played slightly tougher schedule than Toledo.
I'm not willing to lay 10 1/2 in this one. It's a no pick for me.
Best of Luck to all
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Arizona- Offense Balanced Head Coach " Rich Rod " Bowl Record vs spread 1-5 Key Team stats./ National rankings Scoring offense #17 Scoring defense #101, run defense #88 Avg ppg scored 36 Key point: Played much tougher sched. than Nevada.
Nevada- Offense Run 61 % Head Coach Chris Ault 2-5 ats in bowl games. Key team stats/rankings Scoring offense # 20 Scoring defense # 94 Avg ppg scored 36
See no edge for either side, OVER is very tempting.
TOLEDO / UTAH ST. Line: UTSU - 10 1/2 tot. 58 1/2
Toledo - Offense run 55% Head Coach M. Campbell (no bowl exp.) Rushing offense # 39 Total defense #106
UTSU- Offense Balanced Head Coach G. Andersen Bowl spread record 0-1 Offense total off. # 36 (avg. 35 ppg) Total Defense #15 Scoring Defense #8 Rushing Defense #12 Allows only 2.9 ypr Played slightly tougher schedule than Toledo.
I'm not willing to lay 10 1/2 in this one. It's a no pick for me.
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