CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +6.05
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Lost a unit yesterday. Came so close to hitting a +180 Cubs ML bet but they fell just short. My Reds wager never really had a chance, but the Rays managed to pull through to salvage the day a bit.
Another three plays for today.
Wednesday 5/16
953 Pittsburgh Pirates +160
965 St. Louis Cardinals +120
970 Toronto Blue Jays +115
I'm not really sure why, but BetOnline threw out some ridiculous opening lines for PIT/WAS and STL/SFO. I was not able to hit the submit button fast enough on either of these two wagers. Some absolutely ridiculous numbers. My personal lines for these were PIT +135 and STL -105 and that's about where they sit now. Still waiting for the Jays to move, but even if it doesn't I still like the play as I feel there's decent value on the home dog here.
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +6.05
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Lost a unit yesterday. Came so close to hitting a +180 Cubs ML bet but they fell just short. My Reds wager never really had a chance, but the Rays managed to pull through to salvage the day a bit.
Another three plays for today.
Wednesday 5/16
953 Pittsburgh Pirates +160
965 St. Louis Cardinals +120
970 Toronto Blue Jays +115
I'm not really sure why, but BetOnline threw out some ridiculous opening lines for PIT/WAS and STL/SFO. I was not able to hit the submit button fast enough on either of these two wagers. Some absolutely ridiculous numbers. My personal lines for these were PIT +135 and STL -105 and that's about where they sit now. Still waiting for the Jays to move, but even if it doesn't I still like the play as I feel there's decent value on the home dog here.
I am surprised you didn't get on board the Athletic's train while it was riding hot. Was up to a line of +230 earlier today, I got them on the decent at +225 but now it's down to +210.
I am surprised you didn't get on board the Athletic's train while it was riding hot. Was up to a line of +230 earlier today, I got them on the decent at +225 but now it's down to +210.
I am surprised you didn't get on board the Athletic's train while it was riding hot. Was up to a line of +230 earlier today, I got them on the decent at +225 but now it's down to +210.
Was that too high a line for your system?
Good question... I tend not to look at lines in those ranges. When I'm doing my research and making my own line for the game, it's a lot harder to do for those games where the spread is going to be above -200 because of the variability involved. A 20 cent difference between my line of say -130 and an opening line of say -150 has more meaning than a 20 cent difference between something like -220 and -240.
Because of the wild fluctuations in those large spreads, I tend not to get involved.
I am surprised you didn't get on board the Athletic's train while it was riding hot. Was up to a line of +230 earlier today, I got them on the decent at +225 but now it's down to +210.
Was that too high a line for your system?
Good question... I tend not to look at lines in those ranges. When I'm doing my research and making my own line for the game, it's a lot harder to do for those games where the spread is going to be above -200 because of the variability involved. A 20 cent difference between my line of say -130 and an opening line of say -150 has more meaning than a 20 cent difference between something like -220 and -240.
Because of the wild fluctuations in those large spreads, I tend not to get involved.
Just think that White Sox number is too high. Sale gets a ton of respect from oddsmakers, and rightfully so, he's really good (though he did struggle his last start). I had this one capped LAA -145 so I bit with the White Sox +155.
Had a chance to take the Orioles +125 and Marlins +140... ultimately decided against it but think I'm going to end up regretting that tomorrow. Oh well.
Just think that White Sox number is too high. Sale gets a ton of respect from oddsmakers, and rightfully so, he's really good (though he did struggle his last start). I had this one capped LAA -145 so I bit with the White Sox +155.
Had a chance to take the Orioles +125 and Marlins +140... ultimately decided against it but think I'm going to end up regretting that tomorrow. Oh well.
i really wanna join you on stros but marcum @ minmaid:
14IP 4H 0R 3/14 BB/K .085 opp avg
Marcum is not quite right this year so lets hope the young stros bats can rough him up
I hear you switch, but I've learned to just play the numbers and ignore the trends. And I just think this number is too high, especially when you consider Marcum just closed -165 at home against Volstad (which would make him around -125 or -130 on the road against Volstad.)
When I compare that to -150 @ Stros against J.A. Happ, it just doesn't make sense. The Brewers have really been devalued these past couple weeks (check out tonight's MIL/HOU line), and -150/+140 in my opinion is just too big of a line. I had it capped around -130 or -135.
i really wanna join you on stros but marcum @ minmaid:
14IP 4H 0R 3/14 BB/K .085 opp avg
Marcum is not quite right this year so lets hope the young stros bats can rough him up
I hear you switch, but I've learned to just play the numbers and ignore the trends. And I just think this number is too high, especially when you consider Marcum just closed -165 at home against Volstad (which would make him around -125 or -130 on the road against Volstad.)
When I compare that to -150 @ Stros against J.A. Happ, it just doesn't make sense. The Brewers have really been devalued these past couple weeks (check out tonight's MIL/HOU line), and -150/+140 in my opinion is just too big of a line. I had it capped around -130 or -135.
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