almost clawed my way back to above .500 but the texans couldn't score in the second half. favorites win again going 9-6 ats against the closing line. this has to be some record. a bad season, but it could have been much worse given how poorly underdogs for 2/3rds of the season.
but again, a great all around season by the newsletter thanks to the picks and contributions from everyone.
ok, enough about the regular season, as i mentioned, in the playoffs, it's important to try and be ready when the openers come out because that's really the only time to get value. a lot of money goes into those openers and the lines move fast as these have. i have two bets in already (as seen in the week 17 newsletter).
since i already know the lines, i'll post where they started when i saw them and were they are now. and where i bet them if i did. totals are up but i haven't looked at those at all.
Saturday
TN @ KC opened at 7, currently at 7.5/44.5 - this one went all the way up to 9. i missed 9 but hit it at 8.5. i like KC in these playoffs because they don't have the major flaw that every other team in the afc does, but 8.5 and 7.5 are big spreads for a team that struggled for about half of the season if you look at weeks 6-14. and even when they got back on track, they only beat one playoff caliber team in the last 14 weeks of the season. hard to give more than 7 on a team that hasn't really done anything impressive since week 3. yes TN has issues, but they re 4-2 against playoff caliber teams and have played pretty good defense throughout so asking KC to cover 8.5 seems like a lot to ask. clearly they can do it at home, but if you factor in their resumes and TN's defense, i think this line should be 7 at most.
Atlanta @ LA opened at 4, currently at 5/48.5. this went up to 6 but has moved back down a point. i got it at 4.5. with wentz out, this looks like the strongest all around team going in to the playoffs (with minnesota being the hardest to beat since they will be at home for every game in the playoffs unless they play philly, including the super bowl which is in minnesota and have the best defense in the league). and they finished really well with wins against No and at seattle and TN. they went 5-3 against playoff caliber teams. and only one bad loss in week 2. very well coached and they will be as motivated as a team can be with their first playoff game in a while.
atlanta doesn't have any bad losses but haven't been as consistent and is questionable on defense which is a problem going on the road playing such a great offensive team. they are 4-5 against playoff caliber teams. they can easily cover if their offense plays up to their potential but if they struggle on offense as they have done often or their defense just can't hold up against the rams onslaught, the rams should cover this one.
almost clawed my way back to above .500 but the texans couldn't score in the second half. favorites win again going 9-6 ats against the closing line. this has to be some record. a bad season, but it could have been much worse given how poorly underdogs for 2/3rds of the season.
but again, a great all around season by the newsletter thanks to the picks and contributions from everyone.
ok, enough about the regular season, as i mentioned, in the playoffs, it's important to try and be ready when the openers come out because that's really the only time to get value. a lot of money goes into those openers and the lines move fast as these have. i have two bets in already (as seen in the week 17 newsletter).
since i already know the lines, i'll post where they started when i saw them and were they are now. and where i bet them if i did. totals are up but i haven't looked at those at all.
Saturday
TN @ KC opened at 7, currently at 7.5/44.5 - this one went all the way up to 9. i missed 9 but hit it at 8.5. i like KC in these playoffs because they don't have the major flaw that every other team in the afc does, but 8.5 and 7.5 are big spreads for a team that struggled for about half of the season if you look at weeks 6-14. and even when they got back on track, they only beat one playoff caliber team in the last 14 weeks of the season. hard to give more than 7 on a team that hasn't really done anything impressive since week 3. yes TN has issues, but they re 4-2 against playoff caliber teams and have played pretty good defense throughout so asking KC to cover 8.5 seems like a lot to ask. clearly they can do it at home, but if you factor in their resumes and TN's defense, i think this line should be 7 at most.
Atlanta @ LA opened at 4, currently at 5/48.5. this went up to 6 but has moved back down a point. i got it at 4.5. with wentz out, this looks like the strongest all around team going in to the playoffs (with minnesota being the hardest to beat since they will be at home for every game in the playoffs unless they play philly, including the super bowl which is in minnesota and have the best defense in the league). and they finished really well with wins against No and at seattle and TN. they went 5-3 against playoff caliber teams. and only one bad loss in week 2. very well coached and they will be as motivated as a team can be with their first playoff game in a while.
atlanta doesn't have any bad losses but haven't been as consistent and is questionable on defense which is a problem going on the road playing such a great offensive team. they are 4-5 against playoff caliber teams. they can easily cover if their offense plays up to their potential but if they struggle on offense as they have done often or their defense just can't hold up against the rams onslaught, the rams should cover this one.
Buffalo @ Jax opened at 8.5 and is currently at 7.5/40. this went up to 9 but i'm not interested in buffalo right now. i don't understand how they are in the playoffs (something to do with the shrimp being ), and i don't see how they score much on sunday. look for Jax to have an ultra conservative gameplan. they'll be scared that bortles will f*ck this up (as they should be) and figure they can win this with their defense. buffalo is 29th in yards/game. they are 26th in yards/passing attempt. Jax is number one in yards/passing attempt on defense. so, buffalo should not be able to do anything with their passing game. they'll have to run the ball to have any success. i doubt they'll be able to do enough. also, mccoy left today's game with an injury. if he's out, this team is in big trouble.
buffalo can cover if bortles just completely sh*ts the bed. that's coming but probably not here. as i mentioned, Jax will be as conservative as possible and their defense should control the game, especially if mccoy is hurt. i think you have to look at the under, buffalo team total under or just jacksonville ats. i'm going to wait and see if it comes down to 7. it did go up to 9 and came back down so maybe it'll fall further. but, as much as i hate to take bortles as a big favorite in the playoffs, i don't think he'll be a big factor. the Jax defense against a very limited buffalo offense really should be enough. this is the first playoff in jax in a long time. they'll be highly motivated. of course, buffalo isn't exactly a playoff veteran but they are probably pretty surprised to be there and can't be expecting much fo a run while jax probably thinks they can win it all.
Carolina @ NO opened at 5.5, currently at 6/48.5 don't have as much to say here. NO was solid at home this season, like in the old days. only lost once at home, to the patriots in week 2. they didn't have a tough homes schedule but did beat carolina and atlanta (and TB) at home which is why they won the division. carolina was pretty erratic this season and not as good on the road. NO was -5.5 against carolina at home a few weeks ago so this line is about right.
Buffalo @ Jax opened at 8.5 and is currently at 7.5/40. this went up to 9 but i'm not interested in buffalo right now. i don't understand how they are in the playoffs (something to do with the shrimp being ), and i don't see how they score much on sunday. look for Jax to have an ultra conservative gameplan. they'll be scared that bortles will f*ck this up (as they should be) and figure they can win this with their defense. buffalo is 29th in yards/game. they are 26th in yards/passing attempt. Jax is number one in yards/passing attempt on defense. so, buffalo should not be able to do anything with their passing game. they'll have to run the ball to have any success. i doubt they'll be able to do enough. also, mccoy left today's game with an injury. if he's out, this team is in big trouble.
buffalo can cover if bortles just completely sh*ts the bed. that's coming but probably not here. as i mentioned, Jax will be as conservative as possible and their defense should control the game, especially if mccoy is hurt. i think you have to look at the under, buffalo team total under or just jacksonville ats. i'm going to wait and see if it comes down to 7. it did go up to 9 and came back down so maybe it'll fall further. but, as much as i hate to take bortles as a big favorite in the playoffs, i don't think he'll be a big factor. the Jax defense against a very limited buffalo offense really should be enough. this is the first playoff in jax in a long time. they'll be highly motivated. of course, buffalo isn't exactly a playoff veteran but they are probably pretty surprised to be there and can't be expecting much fo a run while jax probably thinks they can win it all.
Carolina @ NO opened at 5.5, currently at 6/48.5 don't have as much to say here. NO was solid at home this season, like in the old days. only lost once at home, to the patriots in week 2. they didn't have a tough homes schedule but did beat carolina and atlanta (and TB) at home which is why they won the division. carolina was pretty erratic this season and not as good on the road. NO was -5.5 against carolina at home a few weeks ago so this line is about right.
I struggle to trust the Rams. Metrics say they're really good, but I worry about the experience factor. First year coach McVay ( a keeper) vs. Super Bowl Coach Quinn ? MVP Ryan vs. a possible flash in the pan Goff? 2 great RBs (Freeman/Coleman) vs. 1 (Gurley)? Julio Jones vs. any Ram DB? Rams with a new kicker replacing the best one in the league.
Falcons finish in Top 10 in both scoring defense and total defense for the first time since 1998.
I just think this is too much too soon for the Rams and I'm taking the Falcons +6 and will buy more at 7 if it gets there. Nobody really knows. You just do what you think is right. I just don't feel right about LA.
I struggle to trust the Rams. Metrics say they're really good, but I worry about the experience factor. First year coach McVay ( a keeper) vs. Super Bowl Coach Quinn ? MVP Ryan vs. a possible flash in the pan Goff? 2 great RBs (Freeman/Coleman) vs. 1 (Gurley)? Julio Jones vs. any Ram DB? Rams with a new kicker replacing the best one in the league.
Falcons finish in Top 10 in both scoring defense and total defense for the first time since 1998.
I just think this is too much too soon for the Rams and I'm taking the Falcons +6 and will buy more at 7 if it gets there. Nobody really knows. You just do what you think is right. I just don't feel right about LA.
as you know, every summer in the summer newsletter i post recommended futures and then after the regular season, i bring them back to see how they did. i think if you'd bet all of them, you'd have been up every year but one, sometimes quite a bit. however, no one bets all of them. most people probably bet none of them. but i think some people do look at this every season and get a few good ideas. here's how we did this season. the relevant section of the summer newsletter is copied and pasted below.
Chargers to win division +485 (they probably won't but these are nice
odds for the team with possibly the best talent in this division, top to
bottom)
Dallas not to win the division -165
Minnesota to win division +360 (see chargers above)
Shrimp will not make playoffs -170 (take this one up to -1500 )
Cincy will make playoffs +145
KC will not make playoffs +120
Chargers
will make playoffs +265 (probably a better bet than winning their
division since the odds are still very good here and this allows for
Oakland or one of the other teams having a great year. the east is a
mess, the north has issues and the chargers are better than any team in
the south, on paper. these are nice odds.)
Minnesota to make
playoffs +165 (again, you wouldn't bet this and them to win the division
but the odds on both look good. GB is very thin and are one injury from
being a bed team.)
as you know, every summer in the summer newsletter i post recommended futures and then after the regular season, i bring them back to see how they did. i think if you'd bet all of them, you'd have been up every year but one, sometimes quite a bit. however, no one bets all of them. most people probably bet none of them. but i think some people do look at this every season and get a few good ideas. here's how we did this season. the relevant section of the summer newsletter is copied and pasted below.
Chargers to win division +485 (they probably won't but these are nice
odds for the team with possibly the best talent in this division, top to
bottom)
Dallas not to win the division -165
Minnesota to win division +360 (see chargers above)
Shrimp will not make playoffs -170 (take this one up to -1500 )
Cincy will make playoffs +145
KC will not make playoffs +120
Chargers
will make playoffs +265 (probably a better bet than winning their
division since the odds are still very good here and this allows for
Oakland or one of the other teams having a great year. the east is a
mess, the north has issues and the chargers are better than any team in
the south, on paper. these are nice odds.)
Minnesota to make
playoffs +165 (again, you wouldn't bet this and them to win the division
but the odds on both look good. GB is very thin and are one injury from
being a bed team.)
looks like a pretty good +4.31 units at 1 unit/bet.
some really nice and easy ones- Minn to go over and win the division at +360 and some bad bets on cincy who sucked. very close to being up quite a bit had the chargers done just a little better. they were certainly good enough to win all of these bets but only the season total over won.
looks like a pretty good +4.31 units at 1 unit/bet.
some really nice and easy ones- Minn to go over and win the division at +360 and some bad bets on cincy who sucked. very close to being up quite a bit had the chargers done just a little better. they were certainly good enough to win all of these bets but only the season total over won.
i forgot, since 5dimes had futures for placement in each division, i also made another post recommending some of those bets. here they are:
AFC
East- ok, i'll break my rule and exempt the AFC East because they don't
have buffalo and the odds for everyone else are shite.
AFC
North- interesting that the shrimp to finish 3rd and cincy to finish 2nd
are the same at +155. have to go with Cincy to finish 2nd just in case
the result we're all hoping for happens and cleveland overtakes the
shrimp. Cincy 2nd +155
AFC South- like two here. Houston to finish 2nd at +210 and Indy to finish last at +255
AFC West- Chargers 2nd at +365, Chiefs 3rd at +240
NFC North- Chicago 3rd at +350, GB 2nd at +245
NFC South- pass
NFC West- Arizona 3rd at +550
i don't know if they grade indy a winner since they are tied for last. if you remove that bet, you'd be up 4.15 units. if that bet was graded a winner, which it should have been, you'd be up 6.7 units.
so, i think this continues to be a valuable and profitable thing to do over the summer. we'll do it again this summer.
i forgot, since 5dimes had futures for placement in each division, i also made another post recommending some of those bets. here they are:
AFC
East- ok, i'll break my rule and exempt the AFC East because they don't
have buffalo and the odds for everyone else are shite.
AFC
North- interesting that the shrimp to finish 3rd and cincy to finish 2nd
are the same at +155. have to go with Cincy to finish 2nd just in case
the result we're all hoping for happens and cleveland overtakes the
shrimp. Cincy 2nd +155
AFC South- like two here. Houston to finish 2nd at +210 and Indy to finish last at +255
AFC West- Chargers 2nd at +365, Chiefs 3rd at +240
NFC North- Chicago 3rd at +350, GB 2nd at +245
NFC South- pass
NFC West- Arizona 3rd at +550
i don't know if they grade indy a winner since they are tied for last. if you remove that bet, you'd be up 4.15 units. if that bet was graded a winner, which it should have been, you'd be up 6.7 units.
so, i think this continues to be a valuable and profitable thing to do over the summer. we'll do it again this summer.
Very comforting to know that both Ohio based coaches (Hue and Marvin with a combined record over the past 2 years of 14-49-1) have been retained for next year. Fade away at will early and often. I wasn't aware that being in Ohio dummied people down so much. Then again, they do have Urban Meyer. But I'm sure they'll run him out because he's not dumb enough. To heck with the future! Let's build more factories!
Very comforting to know that both Ohio based coaches (Hue and Marvin with a combined record over the past 2 years of 14-49-1) have been retained for next year. Fade away at will early and often. I wasn't aware that being in Ohio dummied people down so much. Then again, they do have Urban Meyer. But I'm sure they'll run him out because he's not dumb enough. To heck with the future! Let's build more factories!
[Quote: Originally Posted by ClubDirt] i forgot, since 5dimes had futures for placement in each division, i also made another post recommending some of those bets. here they are:
AFC
East- ok, i'll break my rule and exempt the AFC East because they don't
have buffalo and the odds for everyone else are shite.
AFC
North- interesting that the shrimp to finish 3rd and cincy to finish 2nd
are the same at +155. have to go with Cincy to finish 2nd just in case
the result we're all hoping for happens and cleveland overtakes the
shrimp. Cincy 2nd +155
AFC South- like two here. Houston to finish 2nd at +210 and Indy to finish last at +255
AFC West- Chargers 2nd at +365, Chiefs 3rd at +240
NFC North- Chicago 3rd at +350, GB 2nd at +245
NFC South- pass
NFC West- Arizona 3rd at +550
i don't know if they grade indy a winner since they are tied for last. if you remove that bet, you'd be up 4.15 units. if that bet was graded a winner, which it should have been, you'd be up 6.7 units.
so, i think this continues to be a valuable and profitable thing to do over the summer. we'll do it again this summer. [/Quote
Be thankful the Ravens didnt finish versus the Bengals,,,Because
the Chiefs were ripe to be beaten,,,..last time we trampled them
30-7 there a few years ago in the playoffs...
Bengals and Browns will be 3rd and 4th next year too....
Ravens 28-2 last 30 versus the Browns...give it a rest...
[Quote: Originally Posted by ClubDirt] i forgot, since 5dimes had futures for placement in each division, i also made another post recommending some of those bets. here they are:
AFC
East- ok, i'll break my rule and exempt the AFC East because they don't
have buffalo and the odds for everyone else are shite.
AFC
North- interesting that the shrimp to finish 3rd and cincy to finish 2nd
are the same at +155. have to go with Cincy to finish 2nd just in case
the result we're all hoping for happens and cleveland overtakes the
shrimp. Cincy 2nd +155
AFC South- like two here. Houston to finish 2nd at +210 and Indy to finish last at +255
AFC West- Chargers 2nd at +365, Chiefs 3rd at +240
NFC North- Chicago 3rd at +350, GB 2nd at +245
NFC South- pass
NFC West- Arizona 3rd at +550
i don't know if they grade indy a winner since they are tied for last. if you remove that bet, you'd be up 4.15 units. if that bet was graded a winner, which it should have been, you'd be up 6.7 units.
so, i think this continues to be a valuable and profitable thing to do over the summer. we'll do it again this summer. [/Quote
Be thankful the Ravens didnt finish versus the Bengals,,,Because
the Chiefs were ripe to be beaten,,,..last time we trampled them
30-7 there a few years ago in the playoffs...
Bengals and Browns will be 3rd and 4th next year too....
Ravens 28-2 last 30 versus the Browns...give it a rest...
Very comforting to know that both Ohio based coaches (Hue and Marvin with a combined record over the past 2 years of 14-49-1) have been retained for next year. Fade away at will early and often. I wasn't aware that being in Ohio dummied people down so much. Then again, they do have Urban Meyer. But I'm sure they'll run him out because he's not dumb enough. To heck with the future! Let's build more factories!
Very comforting to know that both Ohio based coaches (Hue and Marvin with a combined record over the past 2 years of 14-49-1) have been retained for next year. Fade away at will early and often. I wasn't aware that being in Ohio dummied people down so much. Then again, they do have Urban Meyer. But I'm sure they'll run him out because he's not dumb enough. To heck with the future! Let's build more factories!
Very comforting to know that both Ohio based coaches (Hue and Marvin with a combined record over the past 2 years of 14-49-1) have been retained for next year.
Marvin Lewis secured a playoff birth on Sunday ... so what if it was for the Bills, the fact that he knocked the Shrimps out of the playoffs should have gotten him a 10 year extension.
I'm not sure what is funnier, the idea that Marvin and Hue are coaching again next year, or the excuses that Bigred was making for that embarrassing loss by the Shrimps.
Although, I don't blame Marvin and Hue for wanting to come back and coach in the worst division in football ... in 2018 they are both already 2-0 just based upon the upcoming games vs the Shrimps
Very comforting to know that both Ohio based coaches (Hue and Marvin with a combined record over the past 2 years of 14-49-1) have been retained for next year.
Marvin Lewis secured a playoff birth on Sunday ... so what if it was for the Bills, the fact that he knocked the Shrimps out of the playoffs should have gotten him a 10 year extension.
I'm not sure what is funnier, the idea that Marvin and Hue are coaching again next year, or the excuses that Bigred was making for that embarrassing loss by the Shrimps.
Although, I don't blame Marvin and Hue for wanting to come back and coach in the worst division in football ... in 2018 they are both already 2-0 just based upon the upcoming games vs the Shrimps
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