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BrianL's NCAA Tourney Picks...

Forum: College Basketball Page 2 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [College Basketball] Topic: BrianL's NCAA Tourney Picks...
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/16/2012 8:59:40 PM
Saint Louis  

5-2-1 +3.37 Units
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/16/2012 9:49:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BrianLaverty:

Record: 1-1, -0.58 Units

Interesting first two days.... Should be 2-0, but really feel like I had the right analysis on both games.  California proved why Pac-12 really should have only had one team in.  Gonna add Friday games because I will be away til Friday night......


-  Lehigh +12.5 (5Dimes) (Risking 1.05 Units to win 1)
-  Lehigh ML +700 (5Dimes) (Risking 0.25 Units to win 1.75)

When doing research last week, I penciled in Lehigh as a team that I was going to bet in the first round no matter who they play as long as they were 10+ point dogs.  Love the team they end up matching up with as Duke is probably the most beatable of the #2 seeds.

As much as I have stated in the past that it is crucial for the lower seeds to hit the 3, this isn't necessarily the case with Lehigh.  They score by holding to the ball and not turning it over, not forcing anything and giving McCollum the ball.   Not only do they not turn the ball over, but they hit there FTs at a rate that you very rarely see lower seeds do.   77.4% is 4th in the country, and they do manage to get there more then 25 times per game.  Getting free points at the line is huge, and that only will keep them in the game.

Lehigh is has definitely battle tested this year, and they have yet to lose a game by more then 9 points.  Losing by just 9 on the road at Iowa State, and again by just 9 to Michigan State while scoring 81 points on the road shows just how good this offense and how well they can compete in difficult environments.      I love there competitiveness and really feel like Duke a difficult time winning, nevermind winning by 13+ points.




Callled that one  


Record For First 2 Rounds:  6-2-1  (+6.12 Units)
HotRoute PM HotRoute
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Posted: 3/16/2012 9:53:42 PM
tinoker55 PM tinoker55
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Posted: 3/16/2012 9:54:47 PM
Nice call on Lehigh..
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/17/2012 2:48:18 AM
On to the weekend games....

Wisconsin +1 (5Dimes) (Risking 1.05 Units to win 1)

I hate this play so much, but unfortunately, it is the right one.  I am not a fan of Wisconsin at all and can't stand the kind of basketball they play.   Somehow, someway, they are always around this time of the year despite struggling on offense for long periods of time every game.  Vanderbilt is an offense that is built around therre deadly 3 point shooters and the fact that teams sometimes overplay them so they can go inside to Ezeli.

There's not many teams that can stop Vandy's offense..... Wisconsin just happens to be one of them.   Wisconsin plays a very good, tenacious man to man defense.  They force you to try and create your own shot off the dribble, and they don't give up ANY open looks.  Wisconsin has been exceptional all year at not only defending the 3 (29%), but limiting the amount of 3's (23.8%, 8th in the country).

Being that Vanderbilt relies on the 3 more then almost every other team in the country, it just is a terrible matchup for them.   What will they do when Tinsley is forced to create offense off the dribble, and they do open shooters on the wing?   They are going to have a terrible time.   When Vanderbilt has an EFG% of 47 or less, they had a record of 2-6, compared to 23-4 when they had an EFG% of 48 or higher.   Wisconsin on the other hand allowed an EFG% of 48 or higher in just 7 games.... 

It will come down to Wisconsin's suffocating defense, and the fact that Wisconsin can do something that Vanderbilt CAN'T do.... And thats win even if you have a bad offensive night.  Bad matchup for Vandy that Wisconsin will exploit, and there's no one better at doing that then Bo Ryan.  
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/17/2012 3:03:28 AM
Kansas State +5 (5Dimes) (Risking 2.1 Units to win 2)

If you ask me, Syracuse is getting way too much respect in this line, and they are really underestimating just how much Fab Melo means to this team on both sides of the floor.  Looking at the #'s when he was previously suspended,  he's missed a total of 4 games, and 2 of them were the two worst offensive rebounding performances of the year.  He was missed big time, and they also had 2 of the 5 of there worst D.E. games of the season.  Those numbers say it all, and it just shows how much they need a big man.

While they can get away with no size and the loss of Melo versus mid major teams, Kansas State is going to take full advantage of this situation and drive the Cuse defense crazy.  Unlike most teams who fall in love with 3 and settle against the zone, Kansas State is a relentless attacking offensive team and will get it inside in the zone all day long.   On top of this, Kansas State is 9th in the country in offensive rebounding %, and they should dominate the boards all game.   Finally, Kansas State has been excellent all year guarding the 3, and this will neutralize another one of Syracuse's perceived threats before the tournament started.  Don't like the matchup at all for Syracuse and I really think KSU will be on there way to the Sweet 16.
BankOnIt22 PM BankOnIt22
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Posted: 3/17/2012 3:24:45 AM
JimBills PM JimBills
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Posted: 3/17/2012 9:44:50 AM
unreal hit on leigh
mp5070 PM mp5070
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Posted: 3/17/2012 10:09:36 AM
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/17/2012 3:31:16 PM
Syracuse played a hell of a 2nd half... can't do anything about that.

Updated Record: 6-3-1 (+4.02 Units)
rogers12 PM rogers12
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Posted: 3/17/2012 6:17:45 PM
anything later on? good run
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/17/2012 7:49:03 PM
No... will be putting up plays for tomorrow later.
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/17/2012 8:18:00 PM
Adding:

- Indiana/VCU Under 77 (5Dimes) (Risking 1.1 Units to win 1)

I don't see any way that these teams keep up the hot shooting at this rate.   They combined for 32 for 53 shooting, and 10 for 23 on 3's.   Its just not sustainable.   VCU's OE is 1.21 and Indiana's is 1.18.  I would be shocked if both teams had over a 1.00 OE for the 2nd half.....   The tempo is about what you could expect from both teams (70 total), and I have a feeling it ends up in the 65-70 point range for second half.  Just hoping overtime/fouling at the end doesn't screw me.
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/17/2012 8:18:18 PM
Correction:

- Indiana/VCU Under 77 2nd Half (5Dimes) (Risking 1.1 Units to win 1)

icpa PM icpa
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Posted: 3/17/2012 8:30:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BrianLaverty:

Correction:

- Indiana/VCU Under 77 2nd Half (5Dimes) (Risking 1.1 Units to win 1)



On this as well.  83 points in the first half?!?! 
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/17/2012 9:22:25 PM
Updated Record: 8-3-1 (+6.02 Units)
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/17/2012 10:53:51 PM
Adding:

- North Carolina/Creighton Over 159.5 (Risking 1.05 Units to win 1)

The highest total of the NCAA Tourney so far, but its this high for a reason.  These are two of the 12 most efficient offenses in the country, and neither of them necessarily have the defense to stop the other.

The pace of play should be very up and down.  Creighton is not a team that looks to run, but as has been the case all year, they play whatever pace it is that there opponents are playing.   This year, they have played against some top 100 tempos and have been willing to run with all of them.  Houston Baptist is the closest tempo comparison to UNC that Creighton has played, and they went up and down for a staggering 79 possessions.  They also had 74 against an up and down SDSU team, 74 against Campbell, and 73 against NC AT&T.  They are not afraid to run.   As for UNC, they look to push the ball as much as possible and create fastbreak oppurtunities every chacne they get.  They've played 17 of there 35 games with a tempo of 74 or higher, and they will not look to slow down tomorrow.

Creighton has been a below average defense all year, and have given up 1.00 points per possession in 20 out of there 34 games.  The best offense they played this year was Wichita State, who is not nearly as efficient as UNC, and they scored an amazing 1.4 PPP.   Look at what other NCAA tourney teams did against them:  Long Beach State:  1.5 ppp and SDSU: 1.12 ppp.   UNC should light this offense up.  On the other side, I don't see Creighton getting held to much less then 1.05 ppp.... they will take advantage of the breaks they get from UNC overpressing.  I see a 90-80 type game based on offensive production and expected tempo around 76-77 possessions.
Kaka123 PM Kaka123
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Posted: 3/18/2012 12:24:51 AM
Keep up the good work!
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/18/2012 1:14:54 AM
Adding;

Cincinnati +2 (Risking 2.1 Units to win 2)

Great defensive matchup.... 2 of the 25 defensive teams play tomorrow in what should be a very intense matchup.  No matter how you look at, both defenses will be working hard and both offenses will be struggling....... Who would struggle the most though?  Florida State's offense and more specifically, there struggles with holding on to the ball will be the #1 key.

Both teams will face endless man to man pressure for all 40 minutes.  I really favor the way Cincinatti can hold on to the ball and actually get shots off, compared to Florida State's constant turnover problems.  They both force a ton of turnovers, with FSU causing turnovers on 22% of possessions while Cincy forces them on 21%... both very high #'s.  But on offense, FSU turns it over more then 23% of possessions, which is one of 20 WORST in the country, compared to Cincinnati which is one of the top in the country at turnovers at just 16%.   With all other things being close to equal, you have to like Cincy because they are going to have 5-6 more possessions with a chance of scoring, and that is absolutely huge in a game that will be as close as this one. 
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/18/2012 1:35:09 AM
Florida -14. (Risking 1.05 Units to win 1)

This is more of a gut play then an actual statistical play, but I am not buying into Norfolk State at all, and truly think that was a one time thing and it will NOT be replicated.   While I think Lehigh's upset over Duke was a legit showing and they really are good enough to be a 12 or a 13, Norfolk State was a different kind of upset.  The game was so much out of character that they will come crashing down to Earth and lose by 25+.

What Norfolk was able to do on offense on Friday Night was truly amazing.   They shot 55% from the field and hit 10-19 from 3, while completely outrebounding Missouri 35-23.  They had an Offensive Efficiency of 1.33 points per possession, which was far and away there best offensive output of the season  To put this in perspective....  They had 19 games in the MEAC this year, and had an O.E. of 1.10 ppp or more in just 5 of them.   They had an EFG% of 66%, when they had 50% in only 17 games vs. a SOS of 320th in the country.   

Numbers like these are completely out of character, and this will be a huge letdown spot after a game in which NO ONE had them winning.   Florida is a team that is equally as dominant offensively as Missouri, but they are a much better team on the boards.  Just can't see Norfolk replicating even half of what they did last night.  I see Florida drilling them by 25+  
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/18/2012 3:16:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaka123:

Keep up the good work!

Thank you 
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/18/2012 3:21:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GWarner27:

Hey with you on USF, how come I'm not seeing PC anywhere in this bracket???

Just saw this..... and realized I also didn't see URI on the bracket... weird huh?   

Anyway... both have GREAT futures now... PC should be a tourney team, or at least close, next year and I guarentee Hurley gets URI to the tourney before he bolts for a better school.  Gonna be exciting over the next couple of years to see college hoops big in RI again.
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Posted: 3/18/2012 3:27:37 AM
thanks for getting me off of vandy
BrianLaverty PM BrianLaverty
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Posted: 3/18/2012 12:17:07 PM
No problem.... I feel like vanderbilt was a trendy pick but can't trust a team that relies so much on the 3 ball
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shadow300z PM shadow300z
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Posted: 3/18/2012 7:05:04 PM
Liked your picks Brian, nice work! 
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